Tonight's Trade
I said I would share my trades every week here, and I haven't kept my word on that yet, because I have just been breaking even lately trying to find the right opportunity. I like to trade the big swings. I am not interested in the little waves, because the risk reward ratio sucks for those trades unless you're a day trader with a lot of leverage and a whole lot of time to manage your trades. I don't have a whole lot of leverage, just $900 to trade with, so I try to be cautious with it and wait for the really good opportunities to enter, where I know I have the potential to make at least a hundred dollars. Right now I think there is a great opportunity with XLM for a potential 50-70% return.
XLM has been making higher lows and lower highs all year, and has formed a giant bull pennant pattern. We are approaching the apex of the triangle now, and I see potential for a major breakout to the upside sometime within the next 2-3 months. I am going to try to trade all the major waves over the next few months and build up as much leverage as I can to go long at the end of the year. Based on my own chart analysis, I think the crypto market should find support by the end of the year, and we should see a major trend reversal in the market as a whole.
These are the buys I have setup. I chose my prices based on the strong trend line that XLM has held all year so far, and a careful study of the daily RSI. The daily RSI is approaching the oversold territory. I am confident that there will be a hard bounce soon. I am also factoring in my analysis of Bitcoin into this trade. The daily RSI on Bitcoin is also nearing oversold conditions, and I think if the price pushes down to $5,700 again that there will be a hard bounce, just like we saw the last time the price dipped that low. The whole market still follows Bitcoin, but I have noticed that XLM sees the strongest gains every time there is a recovery rally. That's what I am predicting will happen here. And I am willing to bet all of my trading money on it.
If I wake up to find these trades have filled, I will immediately setup a stop loss, and aim to sell between 28-30 cents. I think the risk reward ratio on this trade is great, and I feel confident I won't get trapped even if something goes wrong here. I will put up another post next week to let everyone know how it worked out for me. Thanks for listening! I hope this was helpful.
NOTE: This is not investment advice. Everything written here is for educational or entertainment purposes only. Always do your own research before you invest, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
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~ Seldons Plan
Writer | Trader | Traveler | Father of 5
Good broo....
I love trading XLM! It's a beast.
I have been rigorous in writing up all my trades, big and small. I have learned a lot as a result and I now have a great library of material to go back to check my thinking.
Keep going
As to the trade idea, I have a thought. Analysis of XLM vs USD looks solid enough. I do worry about the validity of technical analysis when there has been a price spike like we saw earlier this year. I put MACD on the chart and there is bullish divergence (MACD made higher lows while price was producing level lows).
My thought was the winning trade was much more pronounced if you then traded against ETH or BTC rather than USD. In fact you would be looking for the exits using Stochastic or RSI as the indicator (Stochastic on my chart)
In fact, my trading bot has made 9 winning trades on XLM since Friday trading against ETH. That tells me that my exit point is too low - could have been in longer and paid less spread and fewer fees.
I don't use trading bots, but I appreciate your insights. I followed you. Thanks for sharing.