It feels like the Crypto-hype is returning 📉 Sentiment is changing 📈 Can you feel it too?
Markets are primarily driven by human psychology and the sentiment in the market plays a huge role in deciding whether or not the market is going up or down. I like to think that I'm pretty in-tune with the ongoings in cryptocurrency community, and from my perspective it feels like sentiment is shifting to the positive.
CYCLES
Bitcoin and cryptocurrency comes and goes in cycles, we know that much by now. Every bubble draws in a new crowd of investors, and it is my firm belief that these investors go through the same phases over and over again. Not only does each new bubble add new HODLers, it also plants the seed in others who may be disillusioned after getting rekt now, but may see the potential and chance next time on the next bull run. It takes a bubble or two to become a real veteran, and true believer.
After hitting peak-hype last december and the bear market that followed in the months after, sentiment slowly switched from overwhelmingly positive (new paradigm!) to a much more negative outlook. Bitcoin's price seems to have more or less bottomed out, and even though I posted my personal expectations of dropping below $5000 less than two weeks ago (according to the above chart, we should fall a lot more still to reach true desperation), I can't help but sense a change in the market in the past few days. It feels to me like we've switched from negative, to positive, and people are gearing up in order to start buying.
NOVOGRATZ INDICATOR
One key indicator I use for myself is Mike Novogratz, who seems to come mainly out of the woodwork in advance of Bitcoin bull runs. Remember last year, when his famous quote 'the herd is coming' went viral in the cryptocurrency community, and turned out to be right. I hadn't heard from him much since those remarks, but he's back in the spotlight giving great talks on cryptocurrencies. Just watch this recent interview by Bloomberg and tell me you're not getting excited (it's 38 minutes long, but good).SEC REGULATORY CLARITY
Then there's the American Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) which came out in the news announcing that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are not securities, providing some additional clarity on the matter. Not only that, the chairman of the SEC says that distributed ledger technologies (aka blockchain and such) have 'incredible promise', which is a world of difference from how regulators viewed the space last year.
CHINA CHINA CHINA
And then of course, there's China... always flip-flopping when it comes to cryptocurrency. After being on a negative streak for a while, China is now once again positive and even encouraging to blockchain technology, with President Xi Jinping calling blockchain part of 'the new industrial revolution' at the annual conference of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing.Chinese state-owned television broadcaster CCTV furthermore told it's Chinese audience that 'the value of blockchain is 10 times that of the internet' during an hour-long show about blockchain which included government officials.
MAJOR INVESTMENTS & ADVANCEMENTS
Many big players in the cryptocurrency space are making moves, too. Binance is moving to Malta in order to facilitate FIAT trading, which many expect to be huge. Coinbase is acting similarly, both in trying to acquire a license as well as increasing their assortment of cryptocurrencies by expanding to ERC-20 tokens. Huobi is starting a $93 million blockchain fund, and Binance unveiled it's $1 billion dollar blockchain fund as well. Yesterday, a new attempt at a Bitcoin ETF was submitted to the SEC.Not to mention big investments by Goldman Sachs in acquiring Poloniex through Circle, huge companies such as Facebook and Google looking into crypto, and even NASDAQ is open to becoming a crypto exchange. Practically every bank in the world is experimenting with the technology, and practically every stock exchange is thinking of ways to get in as well.
All in all, I am still not entirely convinced that we won't drop down more, I just don't think we have hit true desperation yet, but when I look at my own feelings of FOMO and FUD I can't help but notice that it has started to develop a tendency towards more FOMO. I've learned to recognize my own investment emotions, and project those at the wider market as a whole. Every crypto trader is basically the same, more or less, after all. If I feel the FOMO coming on, surely others must feel it also, right?.
I have a tendency to be too early with my judgement, though. My thinking might be right but my timing is often off. Still, as a long term hodler I don't mind if I don't catch the precise bottom.
Is 6 months long enough for a bear market to shake out the weak hands? I don't know. It feels short to me, but I also feel like everybody is getting ready to go.
I've been FOMO for while now. How could you not be if you get the technology but have only so much money you can realistically spend? It's just a matter of letting some other influences work themselves out. For one thing, the market is still unfortunately so small that market manipulation isn't that difficult to achieve. I was glad when the US govt. went after some folks for that recently. Hopefully word gets around and manipulators become too afraid to do it, despite what easy pickings it is until enough people start participating.
I dont know how to explain it but i have been feeling it too.. i am not anyone special with any kind of knowledge, i just feel like their has been a change of thought and feeling about cryptos lately and for some reason feel like the tides have been changing and cryptos are getting ready to take off again!
Right! In my personal life too, this past month I have had three situations where work-relations have individually spoken about blockchain and/or doing an ICO. That's weird because six months ago those same people looked at me funny when I said anything about crypto. So if even they are getting interested... well... bodes well for the future
guess we both mixed up our signals! I thought it was gonna go up but it went down.... hard :/
Yes, it was false hope! It now looks like we're going down muuuuuch further!
Still hodling though, I've been through this before
Im hodling too.. Mine are an investment on my future so I'm in for the long haul.. I'm not new per say, but I have only been in cryptos for over a year now so I have seen ups and downs before but this is by far the biggest drop I've been part of.. So I'm just gonna stop paying attention to the markets for a while.. LoL.. Hopefully they will go up by the end of the year..
Yes up until now it has been dips during a bull run. This is the first time it's different. Very similar to 2013/2014. If so then good luck: if you survive the crypto winter that may happen, you have matured into a true veteran :)
If you look back to 2013/2014 and the period after, it took much longer than a year to recover fully. If the same happens this time I am not so sure we will be up by year's end! Truthfully I could see the whole market dying off until mid or late 2019 when the next halvening is coming up shortly after. I hope not of course, but honestly why knows? I'm ready for anything!
I have researched the 2013/2014 bear market and although I see similarities I dont feel it will last as long.. That bear market went up 10x in just one month and it was pretty much only bitcoin. This one has maybe gone up 7x from june to its peak in dec. over 6 months and its with over 1600 cryptos and bitcoin dominance is only around 40% now. I feel like there are a lot more people who are investing and belive in the market and we now have some use case coins so I have a hard time believing the bear market will last much longer than a year. I could be wrong ofcourse and an economic collapse could really fuck things up for cryptos but if that doesn't happen I think we will good 2 go by the end of the year.. like you said, so many people are asking me about cryptos now.. people are interested, they are just getting scared out of it with all this FUD.
Yes I agree the scale is off. Last bubble went much faster while this bubble was much more drawn out in comparison. But that worries me more than it soothes me: if the rise was more drawn out, shouldn't the decline be more drawn out as well?
I understand what you're saying about adoption and hype being different, but I can vividly remember the same emotions and market sentiment last time around. Sometimes I wonder if it plays a role at all, or whether it's all really just market cycles in graphs that are inevitable.
I certainly hope we will see a shorter crypto winter than last time though. My gut tells me you're right, that this time it's different. But really, my gut is the prime candidate to be fooled by the market, because that's what the market is best at: fooling us all.
If it were easy to beat the market, we'd all be rich.
That's why I hodl and don't worry about it. I can't win at 'their' game, so I'm not playing it. I have patience and years and years to spend patiently waiting - enough to be confident I can sit it out.
As usual, excellent post! I feel we are very very close to this long bearish market. We just need the spark to light the bull rocket!
Thanks!
Let's hope for that spark! It will help shake off the PTSD cynicism that I have developed after the 2013/2014 bubble burst! :)
100% upvoted and resteemed!!
https://cointelegraph.com/news/cnbc-google-searches-for-bitcoin-down-75-since-early-2018
But that is just temporary! If you look at the Google trends results for Steemit and you check it gainst the price of steem, the charts are the same and basically as the prices go up more and more people have FOMO because they really are missing out. But people don';t think ahead and even though its smart tro get in NOW while its cheap and low priced, people will only FOMO when they are missing out which happens when the prices go back up
and if EOS continues to launch smoothly, which it most likely will, then we will probably see EOS go up So much that it may very well lead a market rally and we could even see EOS lead our crypto rallies from now on :D or we just end up seeing EOS going up and everything else going down as they sell it all for more EOS :D That should help Steem as well since many EOS holders also hold Steem, and as people learn about EOS and its DPOS underlying mechanics they'll want to know what else works like EOSD and theyl find out about Steem which EOS creator @dan larimer created BEFORE he created EOS! So whats good for EOS should be good for steem.
Thanks!
I also think we're going to see some alts rally big time before we see another big BTC rally. I kind of expect both EOS and Ethereum (it has had a lot of development and investment in it lately) to lead the charge this summer.
Interesting times ahead!
Thanks for stopping by and for your support!
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