Thanks for the post Statman. NVT will have to drop below 20 to make the rate of return more inticing.

Smart money should start entering at those levels. That will happen by a price decline or price consolidation while waiting for user growth to drop the ratio.

Unfortunately there is no statistical advantage in predicting a breakout in either direction at this point. But I am leaning towards the downside or a flat price until we get better valuations.

A 20 NVT would give bitcoin a MC of $80B ($4B daily transaction value) or $4700 per. If we do see a breakout on the downside, $5k is the buy zone for me at this point. Thanks again for sharing your ideas. It is very helpful and appreciated.