After crypto market loses $400B stock market says "Hold my beer" and racks up $5 trillion losses, so far...

While I was checking out the latest crypto charts noting that today it was not following the misfortunes of the S&P I noticed that there's quite a bit of similarity in charts over the last year...

First up the S&P 500 index...

And now the combined crypto market cap from Coinmarketcap:

Sure the different vertical scales hide that crypto is currently down about 55% ($438 billion) whereas the S&P is currently only down about 11%.

But that got me thinking - if the S&P is down 11% just how much does that mean US stocks probably lost across the board? According to Barrons the US stock market was estimated to be worth $30 trillion before the Trump bubble burst. So that 11% correction if extended to all stocks (I'm not sure how valid that is but S&P is a pretty large sample) then it would mean over $3 trillion of value has been wiped off the US stock markets in a past few days. That's more than 7x what crypto has lost. It i. And that is just counting losses in the US markets, whereas the crypto market figure is world-wide. Also US stock market losses mean people's retirement plans have been blown away - cryptomarkets are largely HNW speculators and lucky folks who just happened to have a big pile at the right time. The amount of harm done by 11% being erased - if it is only that - is huge by comparison.

Looking at a Tokyo index (the third largest exchange next to NYSE and NASDAQ) we can see it is also down 10%...

as are most other markets around the world according to Bloomberg's charts: https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks and by their estimate

Over $5 trillion has been wiped from global stock markets since Jan. 26, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

That's right FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS. That's enough to make even Dr. Evil giddy.

So the question I'm asking myself is... if crypto market cap is going up when the US stock markets are crashing down is that just because they are leading the stock market and it too will be going up in a day or two. Or it is demonstrating that they two are unrelated?

The former seems unlikely to me. Many times in the last year we've had some big sell-offs in crypto but the stock market soldiered on. Furthermore crypto HODLers don't panic and sell because of tax cuts causing wage rising causing expected interest rate hikes. No way. We know it was all because of a stream of bad news about restrictions on crypto trading mostly in Asia. So I've no reason to believe that the latest crypto crash was a leading indicator of stock market crashes.

So now I'm thinking if it can be bouncing back when stocks are crashing - well maybe some people with lots of money are seeing it as a safe haven for their money? A way to make back some of their recent stock market losses? And even if they don't yet then perhaps they might in the future? Then again one could argue that the only reason crypto is not tumbling in sympathy with world stock markets is because it was already hugely deflated due to recent losses. Hmmm, well I get guess we won't know this time around.

Interestingly gold prices don't seem to be going up, if anything they seem to have been going down in the past few days (6 month chart below) so people aren't panicking and buying gold. Then again I believe that only happens after major economic shocks or things like outbreaks of war etc. So far the gold bugs aren't seeing a shadow and going into horder mode. Yet.