I decided to make this after some discussion about STEEM prices on discord.

Video

Transcript

so I wanted to make a quick video
looking at the price of Bitcoin here
worked on Yahoo Finance and you know I
don't really care about bitcoins price
in particular because you know it was
the first crypto obviously at least the
first widespread crypto but you know
from a technological standpoint you know
I don't think it's gonna be the end game
winner so but you know it is the first
it has to have all the name recognition
and that's where all the action is right
now and the entire crypto universe
pretty much follows Bitcoin so it's
worth looking at the prices and what we
think might happen so this is a five
years here and obviously we had our big
spike and then it came down and then
those last little while this support
line that was you know in the six
thousand range broke so now we are down
to lowered levels and so the question
always becomes well you know where does
it stop so right now we're 30 to 18 it
looks like and the next support level is
down here which is at 2500 so but that's
you know when people talk about support
you know what does that mean that's
that's the area at which you know buyers
are willing to buy in at a greater rate
than the sellers are willing to sell so
you know for every some lenders buying
for every buyer there's a seller when
when a transaction occurs but it's that
it's that rate pressure that really
moves prices so you know why do people
do that well there's a lot of
psychological hooks that that people
have you know the people who bought in
before you know have have some sort of
rationale saying that they bought of
this purpose before they're buying at
that price again so it's kind of the
same thing seller is that sold way back
here and say oh well that's the price I
sold you know now I have a chance to get
back in and that
that Brian pressure is what creates a
support there's also this
self-referential or reflexive behavior
where this is you know well known now in
in technical analysis has been for years
so people look for that and kind of it's
somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy
and you'll see that with like Fibonacci
ratios and stuff where you know the the
expectation creates the behavior so 2500
is is a support level but it's not a lot
of support you know when you know
there's two parts to support one is time
spent at that and volume so here you can
see the volume starts to pick up
compared to these previous years because
you know the coordinates became more
popular but it's actually clearer on a
log chart so I change this to logarithm
so the logarithmic chart you know shows
exponential growth so if we look at here
we can say this is an exponential growth
line that has been intact and in fact if
you look at the at the earlier time
series you'll see that this this line
pretty well continues and we've broken
below that now so you know we are below
the long-term growth rate of Bitcoin and
you know there's there's a lot to be
said for the price reflecting the
network effect of how many people are
involved in in Bitcoin so if we go back
a little bit farther we can see that you
know this support range you know from
you know call it early 2014 all the way
through to beginning of 2017 so 14 15 16
3 years of support you know it's at the
time was a wide range you know you know
a thousand to two hundred basically but
you know in terms of the prices that
we're at now that's that's fairly narrow
so I think most likely what will happen
is you know we'll hit 2500 will see some
bouncing around and eventually that will
break as well
and then we'll we'll find this major
support back in the sub 1000 area so 800
700 somewhere in there and I think that
will form the base for the next move
forward now the overall economy is you
know starting to see a lot more signs of
markets rolling over you know real
estate prices Vancouver just had a
really bad month and that's been you
know high for years and years
New York is crises are starting to come
down and you know Transvaal you
transaction volume all around is going
down so you know that's one area in in a
stock market we're seeing weakness and
everybody's looking and saying well is
the Fed going to keep raising rates like
they said they were going to or you know
they're not that's the big debate right
now so jobless claims are starting to
tick up after being did going down for a
long time so lots of signs that the
economy is heading into recession and I
don't think Bitcoin is going to benefit
from that so you know crypto is a
fantastic head against fiat currency
especially in in places where you know
there's out of control inflation so you
know the u.s. inflation you know
officially is you know two three percent
unofficially you know higher it may be
maybe ten percent but in the only places
you know I mean Venezuela Argentina lots
of countries in Africa you know places
like Cyprus where they had the valens
and took people's money for the banks
those are all fantastic places to when
there's any can out downturn to rotate
into crypto but the major economies
you know US China Japan you are not that
to that level yet so in this next
downturn I don't think we're gonna see
huge bid on crypto eventually yes down
the road somewhere because the
mathematics of it can i dictate that but
for this next one I think people were
more likely to sell crypto to
you know just dollars or euros than they
are to go the other way around so I
think I think we will see these these
you know 100 sub $1000 prices and you
know everything else is gonna go along
with it so and you know the great thing
about that if you can look at it this
way is that you know at that point
everybody will pronounce crypto is dead
and that will form the capitulation to
to allow for the next leg upward now
that might be in a year or two or three
so just you know be prepared to be
patient I don't think we're gonna see a
v-shaped bottom it's gonna be you know
when these long just like we had here
when these long u-shaped bottoms the
long u-shaped bottom over here so anyway
that's the way I'm seeing it what does
that mean for steam little steams at 23
cents or just below 23 cents right now
so if if Bitcoin losses you know another
60 percent let's say then that would be
let's do the past the 2.8 times or so
that would put it at 10 cents 9 or 10
cents and then you know the next
generation of whales will be born
because we can buy in at you know at 10
cents from the Han cents or whatever it
is then you can go a lot of steam
quickly