Daily Crypto Analysis - 7th Jan - Technical Analysis
This will be a quick look at the short term technicals of some of the major Cryptocurrencies. This will be the format of the majority of my posts.
Bitcoin
Since reaching $19666 in December Bitcoin proceeded to drop sharply to a low of $11160, just above the 61.8% support, before finding a strong bottom around the 50% support. The 50% support is a common level for a Bitcoin retracement, so makes a good reference point.
We're currently looking at a bit of a pullback from the current leg, just above a historical support/ resistance at $15809. A slight pullback is not unexpected around this region and unless we see a high volume break below the previous high of $15500 I wouldn't even begin to consider bearish action.
On the hourly chart, we can see that there was a bit of bearish divergence at the local top, justifying the current correction that we're seeing. The last small bounce was from the 50% support of the local trend. If we see a break lower then it is possible it could form a descending wedge, which is a bullish continuation pattern. Generally, I would wait for a pullback after a breakout of such a pattern before opening a position.
Ethereum
After a few weeks of consolidation Ethereum broke upwards to continue its bull run. Unfortunately, the current trend looks to have strong bearish divergence on the MACD and slight bearish divergence on the RSI. A the rough target region for this movement would be the 1.618 extension of the previous run. The trend is looking pretty weak, so a sharp rejection of the top is likely and a strong correction/ consolidation is needed before any further bullish action.
We see a similar need of correction on the ETHBTC ratio. In its current state it looks like a push to new highs could quickly retrace unless the RSI and MACD make a similar peak. As I keep repeating, I would always recommend buying near the support level of a consolidation rather than near local highs, as it will give you a better risk/reward ratio.
Bitcoin Cash
Bitcoin Cash is currently in a nice consolidation after its recent bull run, sitting above the 61.8% support. There was a swift rejection of the 78.6% support and the dip to $2050, showing that this market is strong and getting ready for new highs rather than lows.
We will likely retest the $4100 resistance in the next week or two, at which point we should watch for signs of weakness which could suggest a double top - even if this outcome is looking increasingly unlikely.
On the BTC ratio we're also in a consolidation region. The extremely low volume during the consolidation confirms the bullish argument, as we would require much higher selling volume to see this as a weak market. We also saw a strong rejection of the dip below the 61.8% support.
Overall, we can expect to see retests of highs in the medium term, most likely followed by a new bull run.
Disclaimer
I will do my best to give unbiased, objective analysis, but I can make no promises about my accuracy.
All posts are based on my personal opinions and ideas and do not constitute professional financial investment advice.