Daily Crypto Analysis - 30th Mar - Technical Analysis
Bitcoin
(Bitstamp:BTCUSD 1h)
Rather than making a bounce yesterday, Bitcoin dropped straight through support to make a bounce from the 100% extension of the trend. This sharp bounce from $6550 came on equally high volume as the dip and made a test of the 78.6% resistance before pulling back towards lows on significantly lower volume.
This is looking like it'll form a double bottom which will likely extend into a rising wedge/ channel. As such, this is not a great place to take a long for a swing trader, as we're expecting further lows after a bearish pullback. Instead, it is best to be taking profit from shorts near lows and watch for continuation patterns to build up shorts higher.
Ethereum
(Bitstamp:ETHBTC 1h)
With Bitcoin's drop through support came bounces on many altcoin vs bitcoin trading pairs. ETHBTC saw a small double bottom at 0.05395 before moving up above the 0.05533 support/ resistance. This counter-trend movement is a strong sign for ETHBTC as it has indicated the start of bullish movement historically.
I'm hoping for a retest and rejection of lows or a similar bullish reversal signal in the next day or two. If not, a push higher to form a bullish consolidation zone would also be a good signal. However, until one or both of these structures are in place, I remain cautious.
Bitcoin Cash
(Poloniex:BCHBTC 1h)
Bitcoin Cash, too, made a strong counter-trend bounce as Bitcoin broke support. However, BCHBTC's retrace towards lows was just as sharp as its bounce, which is a worrying sign. If we can break above the 0.1084 resistance to form a consolidation zone, we can look for bullish positions. Until then, this is looking too weak to buy into.
NEO
(Binance:NEOBTC 2h)
Neo is an exception to the altcoin rule, holding below the 50% resistance despite bitcoin's dip. It looks to be settling into a a bearish consolidation zone, although volume is still rather high.
The volume profile on Binance is extremely weird compared to other exchanges, with very little distinction between candles with significant movement and those with practically none. Not only does this make it hard to analyse volume patterns, its a little sketchy in terms of expected trading behaviour. For these reasons, I may stop using Binance for analysis.
Litecoin
(Poloniex:LTCBTC 1h)
Litecoin also saw a strong bounce as Bitcoin broke lower, with its largest bullish candle appearing at Bitcoin's bounce from lows. I'm looking for either: a retest of support and a second strong bounce or; a push above 0.01740 and the formation of a bullish consolidation zone before I would be willing to buy into LTCBTC. At the moment there is too large of a downside risk to be building up longs.
Disclaimer
I will do my best to give unbiased, objective analysis, but I can make no promises about my accuracy.
All posts are based on my personal opinions and ideas and do not constitute professional financial investment advice.