Daily Crypto Analysis - 2nd Mar - Technical AnalysissteemCreated with Sketch.

Bitcoin

Bitstamp:BTCUSD 1h
(Bitstamp:BTCUSD 1h)

As suspected, Bitcoin moved to make another leg higher after its pullback on the 28th. The movement made a retest of the $11160 resistance, which marked the bottom of the first selloff from $19666. This climb has come with relatively low volume and bearish divergence on both the RSI and MACD. It also appears to be forming an ascending wedge, which is a bearish continuation pattern.
While normally it's best practise to wait for a moving support/ resistance to have 3 confirmed bounces (which doesn't include any current tests), I've draw the ascending support as a reference point.

We can also see that, while dropping slightly, margin shorts remain fairly high. Meanwhile, margin longs have been steadily rising over the last week or so. This can be interpreted in two very different ways:

Bullish:
A large entity is trying to build up a long position ready for a breakout. The large value of shorts could lead to a short squeeze, driving prices even higher.

Bearish:
The retail traders are starting to regain confidence and fill out the bids in the order books, where as large entities are holding off on the next leg down to get a better fill price for their shorts. Generally you'd expect institutions to be buying up much closer to the bottom (around the $6k bounce), so why would they be building long positions here?

Personally, I remain cautiously bearish here. From the opinions I've been seeing from other analysts and traders on social media, I believe there is a level of overconfidence - we never saw a "capitulation" to the last selloff, making this a possible bull-trap.
Bull markets reverse when traders are overconfident and greedy, bear markets reverse amid fear and capitulation. Bitcoin saw a 2.5 year bull run of nearly 10,000%, I wouldn't be surprised if it corrected a bit further before it can start its macro consolidation ready for another major bull market.


Ethereum

Bitstamp:ETHUSD 1h
(Bitstamp:ETHUSD 1h)

Ethereum is remaining a lot more flat than Bitcoin, staying between the 38.2% support and 61.8% resistance for the last few days. This is looking a lot healthier than Bitcoin, as it is consolidating on low volume rather than climbing against it. Unfortunately though, when Bitcoin starts a new leg down everything else is dragged down with it. As with last time, we can hope Ethereum to see a shallow dip than Bitcoin, but I wouldn't count on it.

Bitstamp:ETHBTC 1h
(Bitstamp:ETHBTC 1h)

We never did find support on the ratio, as Bitcoin started its next leg up. As we approach the 0.0780 support we are once again seeing some bullish divergence on the RSI and MACD, but it remains a matter of where Bitcoin will go next. If we remain above the 0.0773 support, then this can still form a good support for a consolidation zone. If not, then we could easily see another large bearish leg.


Bitcoin Cash

Poloniex:BCHBTC 1h
(Poloniex:BCHBTC 1h)

Bitcoin Cash saw a spike from its 0.1141 support yesterday, briefly re-entering the consolidation zone before dropping back again. Such a sharp rejection of the spike is a bearish sign, so I wouldn't hold my breath for another break upwards soon. However, if we can hold the 0.1141 support over the next few days, we could form a bullish consolidation.


NEO

Binance:NEOBTC 1h
(Binance:NEOBTC 1h)

Neo saw a strong break through the 0.012545 support to continue its descent. Volume has been dropping off as it moves lower, suggesting this to be a bullish pullback rather than a move to break to new lows. There has also been some bullish divergence on the MACD, and divergence will likely form on the RSI soon too. I expect this to find support above 0.01110 or 0.01088 in the day or two, but I would still recommend waiting for that to be confirmed before taking a position. This gives a better fill price and reduced risk.


Litecoin

Poloniex:LTCBTC 2h
(Poloniex:LTCBTC 2h)

Litecoin has continued to drop with Bitcoin's rise. Despite breaking through several supports, volume has also dropped off. The next major support to watch for comes at 0.01845, which marked the top of the previous consolidation zone. I suspect that LTCBTC will find a support level soon, but it mostly depends on where the Bitcoin trend will lead next. As always, avoid unnecessary risk by staying on the sidelines of uncertain markets.


Disclaimer

I will do my best to give unbiased, objective analysis, but I can make no promises about my accuracy.
All posts are based on my personal opinions and ideas and do not constitute professional financial investment advice.

Coin Marketplace

STEEM 0.19
TRX 0.15
JST 0.030
BTC 65669.27
ETH 2668.58
USDT 1.00
SBD 2.87