Daily Crypto Analysis - 29th Mar - Technical Analysis
Bitcoin
(Bitstamp:BTCUSD 2h)
Bitcoin has pushed yet lower to make a fairly high volume retest towards the 78.6% support. So far we're seeing bullish divergence on both the RSI and MACD, but these are yet to be confirmed by a bounce. The previous candle formed a long wick on pretty high volume, suggesting a tendency to reject these lows. I wouldn't be surprised if we form a stronger bounce over the next day or two.
For shorters, it is best to wait until we've formed a good bearish continuation pattern before entering or increasing positions, as a strong bounce is likely after such a sharp dip in the last few days.
For any bulls left in the market, while a bounce does look likely, I would be very cautious of going long here, as there is significant downside risk. Unless we form a strong bullish reversal signal, its best to hold off.
Ethereum
(Bitstamp:ETHBTC 4h)
Ethereum too has continued to drift lower without any pause. Such a long drift downwards without a bearish consolidation zone is not a strong sign for the trend, and it will likely retrace hard once we've found support. The question remains as to where this support will appear.
There is still the possibility of bullish divergence forming on the RSI and MACD. However, as we've seen several times in the last week or two on ETHBTC, divergence doesn't necessarily mean the bottom of a trend. We are approaching another historical support at 0.05340, so we'll have to see how the trend holds up, but I'm not holding my breath.
Bitcoin Cash
(Poloniex:BCHBTC 4h)
Bitcoin Cash has broken down from its bearish consolidation on high volume and, in a surprising twist, is moving to test the 0.09928 target which I commented on from the 27th Feb. While this target level has very little relevance due to the market structure which has formed since its calculation, its interesting to note.
This sharp dip will likely be met with an equally sharp bounce, but it remains to be seen where the support will come. Past that, it will be best to wait for a double bottom or a similar reversal pattern before taking on any bullish positions. If, however, it forms a bearish continuation pattern, we can start looking at taking shorts. Although, the risk reward ratio is unlikely to be favourable for shorting unless the bounce is particularly high.
NEO
(Binance:NEOBTC 2h)
After the suspected double bottom, Neo didn't manage to bounce through resistance. Instead, it rejected the 50% resistance before continuing to pull back. This is not a strong sign for Neo, and could well form a bearish consolidation zone. I recommend that bulls hold off on this until we've broken the 7856 resistance at least and started to form a bullish consolidation, otherwise we run the risk of Neo continuing its slow drift lower.
Litecoin
(Poloniex:LTCBTC 1h)
Litecoin never broke the 0.01837 resistance after its suspected double bottom, instead quickly breaking as low as 0.01566. This is a good example of why we use tight stop-losses on higher risk positions, otherwise we can very quickly get caught out. The most important thing in trading is protecting your capital. Profits will come naturally if you trade in well managed and calculated manner.
Litecoin is making a good bounce at the moment, so we can watch whether it can hold support on a second test or whether it will break even lower.
Monero
(Poloniex:XMRBTC 4h)
Monero's "spring" is playing out well, with a break of the 0.02493 resistance before pulling back to likely form a bullish consolidation zone.
Volume still remains low, so a push higher before a period of low volatility would make for a good bullish signal.
Disclaimer
I will do my best to give unbiased, objective analysis, but I can make no promises about my accuracy.
All posts are based on my personal opinions and ideas and do not constitute professional financial investment advice.