Daily Crypto Analysis - 26th Feb - Technical AnalysissteemCreated with Sketch.

Bitcoin

Bitstamp:BTCUSD 1h
(Bitstamp:BTCUSD 1h)

Following the bullish divergence and a second test of the $9373 support, Bitcoin has seen a good bounce to make a retest of the 23.6% resistance. This move may well make a retest of highs, possibly up to $11700. It mostly depends on where the sub-pullback dips to.
For example, if it forms a steep ascending wedge, we can expect it to reach higher before breaking down in a sharper drop. On the other hand, a shallower rise with deeper dips could form a bullish consolidation zone instead, which would make the $9373 support the bottom of this pullback. We should be able to see how the pattern is playing out by tomorrow and assess from there.
Curiously, margin shorts remain high so far, although there is a definite increase in margin longs over the last few days. Big money is still better on a continued dip. Such high levels of shorts could lead to a short squeeze, if we push too much higher, as most of the increase seems to have come between $9400 and $10400. However, this could also be viewed as a move by "whales" to temp the market into buying up the next major sell-off.
I'm not too knowledgeable on Wyckoff Theory (which can describe the actions of large entities in markets), but this gives an interesting view of the market nonetheless.


Ethereum

Bitstamp:ETHUSD 1h
(Bitstamp:ETHUSD 1h)

Ethereum made a test around the $883 resistance with a bit of a volume spike, but we seem to have rejected the resistance for the meantime. Depending how higj Bitcoin pushes, we could easily see a break up to test the $905 resistance in the next few days. If not, the zone between $816 and $883 would make a good flat consolidation given another few days to a week. Unfortunately, the whole market is rather at the mercy of Bitcoin in the short term, but in the medium term Ethereum definitely looks stronger than Bitcoin.

Bitstamp:ETHBTC 1h
(Bitstamp:ETHBTC 1h)

As I feared on the ratio, the low volume climb met with bearish divergence resulting in a very sharp retracement. This is why I prefer to buy into strong consolidation zones rather than an already moving trend. However, this does give a good example of a use of trailing stop-losses. If you can calculate a reasonable trailing distance, you can take advantage of the majority of a trend before being stopped out near the top, hopefully with a decent profit. This strategy is only really suited to clean trends, as too much chop would either stop out a position prematurely or require too wide of a stop to be profitable.


Bitcoin Cash

Poloniex:BCHBTC 1h
(Poloniex:BCHBTC 1h)

Bitcoin Cash continues to hold its consolidation zone on low volume. This is a sign of the market getting ready for a new leg, however there remain question as to which direction that will happen.

The bullish argument:

  • This demonstrates a solid support zone after a long bearish trend, meaning this could be the bottom
  • The market has been in correction for 2 months now, it has to bottom out eventually
  • We are resting above the 0.1207 support, which marked the low of the previous leg down

The bearish argument:

  • We already saw 2 breaks below the 0.1207 support, meaning that we could easily see a new bearish trend forming
  • This consolidation comes around market lows, where as a typical bullish consolidation is around highs
  • We've been consistently pushing lower for 2 months, it seems more likely that it will continue down than up

Overall, I would wait to see if we can make more bounces from the 0.1192 support before taking on any positions. A "spring" (sharp drop through support that quickly retraces) would also be a valid bullish signal here. Generally, try not to expose yourself to more risk than necessary in trading. Holding no position is a valid option when the market is uncertain.


Litecoin

Poloniex:LTCBTC 2h
(Poloniex:LTCBTC 2h)

Similarly to ETHBTC, litecoin has seen a strong retrace on the back of the sharp rise in Bitcoin. We'll have to wait and see where this pullback finds support. Due to how close the rise got to the 0.02500 resistance, this could be viewed as a large double top formation, meaning that we could drop straight through support. For this reason, I would emphasise watching for a strong support before taking on positions, as there is added risk of further drops.


Monero

Poloniex:XMRBTC 1h
(Poloniex:XMRBTC 1h)

Monero, too, saw a rejection of its move to retest highs. So far we seem to have found support around the 50% retracement, however I would wait for a second test to confirm that. Overall, we are still waiting for Monero to form a clean consolidation zone before we can look for a position.


Disclaimer

I will do my best to give unbiased, objective analysis, but I can make no promises about my accuracy.
All posts are based on my personal opinions and ideas and do not constitute professional financial investment advice.

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