Daily Crypto Analysis - 24th Jan - Technical Analysis
Bitcoin
(Bitstamp:BTCUSD 1h)
After pushing as low as $10000, Bitcoin saw a sharp temporary reversal. We can see there was bullish divergence on the RSI and MACD, explaining the jump.
I warned that this trend could result in a double bottom, which is looking likely at the moment. However, until we see a break above the last local high at $11900, I would still consider this bearish.
Ethereum
(Bitstamp:ETHBTC 1h)
Since ETHUSD tells the exact same story as BTCUSD we'll focus on the BTC ratio.
ETHBTC remains within its consolidation channel and is testing the resistance levels. It made a small retest of the channel lows on the 23rd, but ended up making a higher low, which is a bullish short term signal. We may well see a breakout upwards from the channel soon. If not, I would expect us to stay nearer to the top of the channel until we do.
Remember, that my analysis always comes with an implicit caveat as to where it becomes invalid. In this case it would be a strong break through the support of the channel.
Bitcoin Cash
(Bitfinex:BCHUSD 1h)
Bitcoin Cash is looking very similar to Bitcoin, with the notable exception of the second push upwards not reaching as high as the first, showing weakness. We may be in a bearish consolidation zone here ready for another push downwards.
If/ when we see a break of the $1511 support then there is the possibility of a double bottom forming before the $1343 support, but a drop straight through $1300 and lower is seeming increasingly likely.
If BTCUSD decides to reverse into another bullish trend, then BCHUSD will most likely follow, but Bitcoin isn't exactly looking strong itself.
(Poloniex:BCHBTC 4h)
BCHBTC is looking bearish too. On this time frame we can see the brake downwards from its bearish consolidation zone to where it is currently retesting some historical support at 0.1451. A break of this support and a retest of 0.1366 is looking fairly likely. A break of 0.1366 would be a significant sign of weakness here, especially since there is no notable support until 0.1280 at least.
Litecoin
(Poloniex:LTCBTC 4h)
Since last I looked at LTCBTC, on the 14th, we've seen a retest of the 0.01486 support and a very sharp rejection. Litecoin remains within the channel with relatively low volatility. This is looking like a long term consolidation pattern after the huge spike in December.
As I concluded last time, a break below the major supports is looking unlikely and so a new bull run is expected at some point in the future, but it's impossible to predict quite when.
(Poloniex:LTCBTC Daily)
On the daily time frame we can see that we are near historical highs which have been rejected many times before. In this context, I would be more cautious and wait until we see a decisive break from this channel before taking and positions, or at least taking counter-trend positions near the top or bottom of the channel to minimise risk.
Disclaimer
I will do my best to give unbiased, objective analysis, but I can make no promises about my accuracy.
All posts are based on my personal opinions and ideas and do not constitute professional financial investment advice.