Daily Crypto Analysis - 21st Jan - Technical Analysis
Bitcoin
(Bitstamp:BTCUSD 1h)
As I was looking for in some of my recent posts, Bitcoin pushed up toward the major resistance zone around $13000 before quickly retracing. This came in the form of a rejection of the ascending channel its been in for the last few days.
At the moment we're retesting the 38.2% support which made the base for the test upwards. Bitcoin is looking pretty weak, as this marks a lower high on the higher time frame, so a retest towards the $9200 is to be expected.
(Bitstamp:BTCUSD 4h)
Based on the length of the previous leg down, the current price target for the movement is ~$8250, however we may not see this if there is strong support around the $8572 level (the 76.8% of the macro trend).
Unfortunately, this trade holds a fair amount of risk due to the steep retracement after $9225, meaning that there is limited room between the price target and a confirmed break down of support. So you either have to accept the risk that you could be caught out by a double bottom or have a very limited trade length after the confirmation.
Ethereum
(Bitstamp:ETHUSD 1h)
Ethereum is still following the same pattern as Bitcoin and therefore has the same expectation of retest of previous lows. The major supports to watch for are around the $1000 level along with the 61.8% and 78.6% retracements.
While, historically, Ethereum will follow the same path as Bitcoin during major corrections, there is still the possibility that we decouple at psychological support levels.
(Bitstamp:ETHBTC 1h)
We still remain faithfully within the consolidation zone. However, despite the current dip on BTCUSD (pink line), we are in fact rising slightly, which breaks from the norm. If ETHBTC manages to continue moving counter-trend to BTCUSD then a breakout is likely, which may well be Ethereum's decoupling point from the bear trend.
Bitcoin Cash
(Poloniex:BCHBTC 4h)
Bitcoin Cash made saw a significant jump on the BTC ratio, but currently remains within a short term range between the 0.167 resistance and the 0.150 support.
So far this appears to be supporting the idea of a double bottom, as we have not broken downwards. However, a double bottom would usually be made of 2 sharp rejections of support, rather than a flat consolidation near lows. I would wait and see how the ratio reacts to the BTCUSD drop before taking any positions, or at least until it has broken through the 0.167 and 0.17 resistance.
Disclaimer
I will do my best to give unbiased, objective analysis, but I can make no promises about my accuracy.
All posts are based on my personal opinions and ideas and do not constitute professional financial investment advice.
Movements are huge. Some say that big whales are in the game so BTC can become much stronger instantly. I do not have any opinion on the current market. Keep neutral. Let's see, what Monday with bring us. Last week it was really clear.
Thank you for the report!