Bitcoin

(Bitstamp:BTCUSD 1h)

Bitcoin continues pushing higher, moving to test the $11990 resistance. Volume still remains low and there is further bearish divergence on the RSI and MACD. Despite the trend not appearing very strong, with sharper selloffs amid the slow glide higher, it just keeps going. This kind of movement makes me cautious of this market, as I feel it requires a healthy pullback before trying to go much higher.

On top of this, we can see that margin longs (green line) have been decreasing further over the last few days along with an increase in shorts (red line). Significant money is shifting away from the bullish sentiment, dropping from ~37000 BTC of longs on the 12th to only 22700 currently.
Until we see a decent pullback/ consolidation or a pickup in volume, I stand behind my sceptical outlook on Bitcoin.

Ethereum

(Bitstamp:ETHUSD 1h)

After a bounce off the 50% support level, Ethereum appears to be forming a good consolidation zone between $905 and $984. This looks a lot more healthy than BTCUSD, as we are holding a good support level rather than trying to push higher on such low volume.

Unfortunately, if Bitcoin does pullback hard, Ethereum will almost certainly follow, breaking the support level. But, if Bitcoin forms a flat consolidation instead, Ethereum is positioned well to consolidate ready for a strong new bull run.

(Bitstamp:ETHBTC 4h)

However, due to this consolidation, the ratio is suffering as Bitcoin pushes higher, dropping straight through all support levels. We have been dropping fairly consistently since the bounce from $6000, which is counter-trend to Bitcoin. Therefore, it is possible that a pullback in Bitcoin would result in a similar counter-trend movement, forming a support level on ETHBTC.

For the meantime, we have to wait and watch for a decent support level to be confirmed. Once that is in place, then we can start looking for positions to take.

Bitcoin Cash

(Poloniex:BCHBTC 1h)

Similarly to the ETHBTC ratio, Bitcoin Cash has suffered from the rise in Bitcoin. We saw a strong break through the 0.1366 support, invalidating the consolidation pattern. From there we've dropped all the way to the 0.1280 support. We will have to wait and see whether this can form a new support level before re-evaluating it for a new position.

Remember that positions can and will break down (especially in market conditions like these), so we need to make sure risk is sized appropriately. But, as long as we keep the risk/ reward ratio high, we can easily make profit over time. A profit:loss ratio of 2:1 requires only 33% accuracy to break even.

NEO

(Binance:NEOBTC 1h)

After briefly pushing back into the consolidation zone, Neo too dropped through support. Notably, we are seeing quite high volume on the current bounce off the 0.0111 support. This could form a good support level to attempt another consolidation zone, but we'll have to see how this plays out over the next few days.

Litecoin

(Poloniex:LTCBTC 1h)

Litecoin saw a completion of its bullish pennant with a fake out through support, followed by the expected break upwards. Fake-outs to test the support level of bullish retracements are fairly common before the major breakout. The issue comes in identifying whether it is, indeed, a fake-out or whether it is an actual break down of the pattern.
The trading volume can give a clue. We can see that volume has picked up slightly on the drop, but still remains at consolidation levels. Where as, the breakout saw a huge spike in volume.

Sometimes we will get caught in the fake-outs, but we can simply buy back in during the pullback. It is better to reduce your risk and miss out on a bit of profit than hold a position too long on a drop. Sensible stop losses can help reduce the emotion of large market movements, as you set them based on rational analysis, rather than agonising about whether or not to close out a position in the heat of the moment.

Monero

(Poloniex:XMRBTC 1h)

Monero continues to pullback after its test of highs. It is currently testing the 78.6% support, where it bounced previously. If it does not find support here, then there are few other levels to look to. There is no particular sign of bullish divergence yet on the RSI or MACD, so a continued drop is a distinct possibility. However, once we find a support level, we can start assessing ready for the next bullish movement.

Disclaimer

I will do my best to give unbiased, objective analysis, but I can make no promises about my accuracy.
All posts are based on my personal opinions and ideas and do not constitute professional financial investment advice.