Daily Crypto Analysis - 18th Jan - Technical Analysis

Bitcoin

Bitstamp:BTCUSD 1h
(Bitstamp:BTCUSD 1h)

After falling straight through the support at both $11160 and $10000, Bitcoin has finally bounced after reaching as low as the $9200s.
We saw strong bullish divergence on the way down on both the RSI and MACD, which eventually lead to the sharp retrace.
Now is the time to be watching for bearish continuation signals such as rising wedges. I've marked two possibilities here. The shallower wedge will most likely be broken, which would lead us into the ascending channel.
If this uptrend is to reverse it will likely do so around the boundary of the original flat channel ($12800) or closer to the major support/ resistance line around $13300.

Bitstamp:BTCUSD 4h
(Bitstamp:BTCUSD 4h)

Looking at the 4 hour time frame, this leg down was around $4800 so, assuming this is a bearish flag formation, that would give us a target of -$4800 for the next leg. If we continue the bear run from the major support/ resistance line ($13300) then that gives us a target price of $8500, which also aligns nicely with the 78.6% retracement of the $5555 to $19666 trend.

Ethereum

Bitstamp:ETHUSD 1h
(Bitstamp:ETHUSD 1h)

Ethereum is following an almost identical pattern to Bitcoin here, with the same bullish divergence from the down trend, which bounced into an ascending wedge formation.
Due to this, I would recommend watching the Bitcoin pair closely to gain an insight into Ethereum, as it will likely follow. It is possible that Ethereum will decouple from Bitcoin at a strong support zone, but since Bitcoin is the dominant player in the market it is unlikely.

Bitstamp:ETHBTC 1h
(Bitstamp:ETHBTC 1h)

On the Bitcoin ratio we can see that we're currently settled just above a support at 0.08825. If we manage to stay within this zone when the next Bitcoin drop hits, then I would expect to see a consolidation period before any bullish movement.
However, that is a big "if", as we can see ETHBTC correlating strongly with BTCUSD during selloffs. This is a pattern I have observed many times before, and is likely due to the lower market cap of Ethereum compared to Bitcoin, causing the ETHUSD pair to dip harder.
Until we see a strong support and consolidation I would be very cautious about this trading pair.

Bitcoin Cash

Poloniex:BCHBTC 4h
(Poloniex:BCHBTC 4h)

On the 1h USD chart, Bitcoin Cash looks very similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum, so isn't worth commenting on. However, notably, on the 4h chart we do see a little bit of bullish divergence on the RSI and MACD towards the end of the dip, which we didn't see on the other two Cryptos.
BCHBTC has so far followed a similar pattern to ETHBTC, with a high correlation to the BTCUSD dip. However, we still remain within the macro consolidation zone, with strong support around the 61.8% retracement. If we see no breaks below the previous low (and preferably stay above the 0.145 zone) I would be very happy to call this a double bottom, which would be a bullish reversal signal and a very strong sign for the medium term bull run.
Be cautious until we have that confirmation in place, but keep an eye on it.

Disclaimer

I will do my best to give unbiased, objective analysis, but I can make no promises about my accuracy.
All posts are based on my personal opinions and ideas and do not constitute professional financial investment advice.

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