Daily Crypto Analysis - 16th Jan - Technical Analysis

Bitcoin

Bitstamp:BTCUSD 4h
(Bitstamp:BTCUSD 4h)

After another failed attempt to break upwards from the flat channel, bitcoin broke through its major support in spectacular fashion. We've found short term support around $11160, which was the level of the major drop after reaching ATH. So far the support in this area has been very strong, with several sharp rejections. However, each appears to be weaker than the last.
In the short term, if the support keeps holding we may see another increase, most likely in the form of an ascending wedge (a bearish confirmation pattern). But it is very possible that we just continue powering through support after a short period to cool off.

Bitstamp:BTCUSD Daily
(Bitstamp:BTCUSD Daily)

Looking at the bigger picture, the current outlook on Bitcoin is very much bearish. Based on the $8000 height of the symmetrical triangle that Bitcoin was in, a rough target price for this dip would be around $5100. I am a bit sceptical about whether it would reach quite that far, as we have strong support of the 2017 ascending channel just before that region, and the support level from the $5555 dip.
Looking at the multi-year bull run (dating all the way back to the start of 2015 and starting around $210) the first major support comes at the $10k level with the 50% support, followed by the 61.8% support at $7600 and the 78.6% support at $4400. Historically, when Bitcoin retraces a major bubble it generally dips to between the 61.8% and the 78.6% levels, which would line up with that price target for our triangle formation.
Another historical support to watch out for would be the $7888 peak prior to the $5555 dip, which could prove to be quite strong.

Ethereum

Bitstamp:ETHUSD 4h.png
(Bitstamp:ETHUSD 4h)

Following in the footsteps of Bitcoin, Ethereum has also seen a major drop today. We're seeing some support around the $1000 level, however another leg down for Bitcoin will likely bring Ethereum down with it. In the short term, the 61.8% support is the nearest level followed by the major historical support at $870. A break below these levels could show weakness in this longer term bull trend.

Bitcoin Cash

Bitfinex:BCHUSD 4h
(Bitfinex:BCHUSD 4h)

Also following Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash has broken downwards of its consolidation zone and has found support around the 78.6% retracement. Like with Ethereum, any further bearish action on Bitcoin will likely cause a similar drop for Bitcoin Cash unless it can decouple at a strong support zone.

Disclaimer

I will do my best to give unbiased, objective analysis, but I can make no promises about my accuracy.
All posts are based on my personal opinions and ideas and do not constitute professional financial investment advice.

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