Daily Crypto Analysis - 16th Feb - Technical Analysis
Bitcoin
(Bitstamp:BTCUSD 1h)
Bitcoin has continued to creep upwards against the bearish divergence on both the RSI and MACD, reaching as high as $10300. Volume remains quite low, suggesting that this trend is weak and the market is not feeling very comfortable with the current price.
I've added overlays of the Bitfinex BTCUSD margin longs (green line) and margin shorts (red line) to the chart. As we can see, the margin longs have been decreasing significantly over the last few days as we reach higher. Shorts remain relatively low, although have been increasing somewhat over the last few days.
While I usually pay little attention to these metrics, it does suggest some serious money is no longer feeling so bullish on Bitcoin, which lines up with the suggestion of a fake-out.
Ethereum
(Bitstamp:ETHUSD 1h)
Ethereum has been following the general BTCUSD trend closely throughout the correction and bounce and was in a similar upwards channel. However, over the last few days, it has formed more of a flat consolidation rather than pushing higher like Bitcoin. Under different circumstances, this would be viewed as a good level to consolidate, ready for the start of a new leg up.
But, as we've seen for so long now, Bitcoin is the driving force in the market at the moment, so we remain at the mercy of the BTCUSD trend. And, since we're expecting a pullback on Bitcoin in the near future, the same will probably hold true of Ethereum.
(Bitstamp:ETHBTC 1h)
We can clearly see the effect of the ETHUSD flat consolidation, with ETHBTC dropping straight through support. However, there is the possibility of a double bottom forming here, which would be a bullish reversal signal.
But, as I've said a lot recently, its still a waiting game until a good support level is formed. Until then there are very few trading opportunities.
Bitcoin Cash
(Poloniex:BCHBTC 1h)
In a similar fashion to Feb 8th, BCHBTC has broken upwards in spectacular fashion. Unlike the spike on the 14th, we are currently holding near the high of the leg up to form a bit of a consolidation zone. This will likely form a bullish flag or bullish pennant, which should form a good buying opportunity. Volume has also dropped off significantly since the original leg up, which supports the idea of a bullish consolidation pattern.
NEO
(Binance:NEOBTC 1h)
Neo has seen a bounce off the 0.0120 support and has moved back into the level of its suspected consolidation, between the 50% support and 38.2% resistance. If we see a failed break of the 38.2% resistance, then this could form a large consolidation channel between 0.0120 and the 38.2%.
Volume still remains high along with volatility, so this still doesn't offer any attractive opportunities. However, we have been holding between 0.0110 and 0.0144 quite well for just over a month, so a new bull run may be in order soon.
Cardano
(Bittrex:ADABTC 1h)
Against expectation, Cardano looks like it may be forming a bounce prior to the 3700 support, after reaching as low as 3720. There has been clear bullish divergence on the RSI we've been climbing for above 12h so far. However, this bounce has not been particularly sharp nor has volume picked up on the retrace.
If we can form a second bounce (preferably with higher volume), then we might form a good reversal signal here. Until then, I remain relatively bearish.
Litecoin
(Poloniex:LTCBTC 30m)
Litecoin formed a small double bottom with bullish divergence this morning, which lead to a push to test the 23.6% resistance. I suspect this will retrace to form another bounce ready for a consolidation pattern such as a bull pennant.
Once we have a solid support level in place, then we can start looking for the next leg of the bull run.
Monero
(Poloniex:XMRBTC 1h)
Rather than consolidating, Monero is just seeing a lot of chop with a slight bullish bias. There was a bit of bearish divergence on the recent movement, so this doesn't look ready to form a new trend yet. Volume and volatility will also have to drop significantly before I would consider this for a trade.
Disclaimer
I will do my best to give unbiased, objective analysis, but I can make no promises about my accuracy.
All posts are based on my personal opinions and ideas and do not constitute professional financial investment advice.