Daily Crypto Analysis - 13th Feb - Technical Analysis
Bitcoin
(Bitstamp:BTCUSD 1h)
Bitcoin is now gliding higher along the lower boundary of a secondary ascending channel. Volume still remains low as we approach the historical descending resistance (thicker green line). The previous move higher topped out just below $9000, leaving a formation similar to a double top, yet we didn't see a sharp drop afterwards. This is suggesting some level of strength in this market, despite all the seemingly bearish signals.
It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the resistance level. A high volume breakout could be the start of a new bull run, but a fake-out is still a possibility in my mind. I would recommend holding off on this market until there is a confirmed direction. Catching the start of a new bull run isn't as important as reducing risk in an uncertain market.
(Bitstamp:BTCUSD 4h)
A more bullish outlook, that I've seen some analysts commenting on, is the possible formation of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. At first glance, this seems like a fairly reasonable view on the market, as the bounces line up in a similar pattern. However, the volume profile doesn't seem to line up on our chart.
Generally, you'd expect to see bearish volume being higher on the left hand spike than that of the head, which doesn't appear to be the case. Secondly, you'd expect to see a volume increase during the move towards the neckline for the right shoulder, again this doesn't seem to be the case.
If we do, indeed, see a strong break through the resistance level with a large pickup in volume then I'll stand corrected. But for now, I remain fairly sceptical.
Ethereum
(Bitstamp:ETHUSD 1h)
Ethereum continues to follow a very similar pattern to that of Bitcoin, with the slight deviation of a shallower move up over the last few days. We are, instead, holding between the $870 resistance and 61.8% support. This could form a consolidation zone for Ethereum over the next week or so if it holds. If not, it will likely be due to Ethereum following Bitcoin's next move.
(Bitstamp:ETHBTC 4h)
On the ratio, Ethereum still meanders while looking for a support level. We saw a small bounce around the 0.0960 level, but we still wait for BTCUSD's next movement to provide a proper test of the support levels.
On the plus side, volume has been dropping off significantly, making this a good candidate for a bullish consolidation zone once we find support.
Bitcoin Cash
(Poloniex:BCHBTC 1h)
Bitcoin Cash decided to keep gliding lower on the ratio yesterday, to reach as low as 0.1410 before seeing a small bounce. Volume remains low as we come near to testing the descending resistance line. A break out above here should see a large increase in volume to be considered valid. If we don't see the break, then we could move to retest as low as the 61.8% support.
NEO
(Binance:NEOBTC 1h)
Neo appears to have found good support at the 50% retracement and could be forming a strong consolidation zone. Volume is slowly trailing off so, if we can remain around this area for a while longer, this could form a good bullish continuation signal.
I would still recommend holding off on this pair a while longer for the extra confirmation, but this isn't looking too bad.
Cardano
(Bittrex:ADABTC 1h)
ADABTC might've finally found a support level after retesting the 76.8% retracement. However, volume did start to grow towards the lower end of the drop, which makes me uneasy about the trend of this market. I would wait for further confirmation of this support level before taking on any positions.
Litecoin
(Poloniex:LTCBTC 1h)
Litecoin remains in its consolidation pattern, although it appears to be reaching the end. Over the last few days, it has found further support above 0.01808, forming an even tighter trading range while volume continues to drop. This is, once again, just a waiting game for when Litecoin decides to start its next leg up.
Monero
(Poloniex:XMRBTC 1h)
Monero dropped through the 61.8% support to make a test of the 78.6% retracement. Historical supports are thin here, with the next major level coming at 0.0261, which marks the 100% retracement of this move. In the short term, this is looking fairly bearish, but I'll keep an eye out for any formation of support. This should have good bullish potential in the medium term, once it finds a support level for a consolidation period.
Disclaimer
I will do my best to give unbiased, objective analysis, but I can make no promises about my accuracy.
All posts are based on my personal opinions and ideas and do not constitute professional financial investment advice.