Daily Crypto Analysis - 11th Jan - BTC ETH BCH Technical Analysis
Bitcoin
There is still bullish divergence on the MACD despite the sharp drop earlier. Bitcoin appears to currently be in an ascending wedge formation, which is a bearish continuation pattern, but the divergence is suggest that we could push quite high before realising the continuation.
On the lower time frame we can more clearly see the bullish divergence on the RSI and MACD. We saw a bit of a pullback below the $14200 resistance, but I expect that we will continue to follow the ascending channel upwards in the short term. Below the $15500 and $15800 resistance levels are where I would expect to see a break downwards ready for a retest of the $12700 support and below.
I would recommend both bulls and bears being cautious about short term positions until we see a clear indication of the market direction, shorts could easily be stopped out if we see an unexpected break upwards and longs are inadvisable unless we see a strong reversal pattern.
Ethereum
As suggested by the bearish divergence that we noted yesterday, Ethereum is starting to pullback from its recent bull run. The first support to watch would be the 38.2%, which has already had a dip nearly reach it. However, I'm more interested in the 50% retracement level as: 50% is a common retrace for crypto trends; it coincides well with a one of the small peaks and it is near the psychological support of $1000.
Once we see a some volume consolidation, and possibly a double bottom, this will make a very attractive area to be opening positions ready for the next leg of the bull run.
Similar to yesterday, there is no notable divergence on the RSI or MACD for the ratio, suggesting that there is still room for more upside. However, looking at the market context of further retracement on the ETHUSD pair, I would expect to see further pullback vs BTC too.
We remain within the historical resistance zone, which will also make a good support level for any retracements. While I don't expect that we'll see a particularly strong reversal here we should still keep an eye on the 50% support and the 0.0783 historical resistance/support above it.
As with the USD pair, a consolidation here should be a good place to build up positions once we see strong support to work with.
Bitcoin Cash
After pushing upwards yesterday we saw a rejection of the resistance zone back into our consolidation area. Volume picked up briefly, but wasn't enough to break upwards. I am still expecting further retests of highs in the next few days, but first we have to see a convincing break of the 38.2% resistance.
On the ratio we can see strong resistance around the 38.2% and a bit of a retrace of the shorter term trend. There is a bit of a bull pennant (albeit a messy one), which is a bullish continuation pattern. This structure looks like it will take us down to the 50% support, which I would expect to be the bottom of the short term consolidation before another push higher ready for a retest of highs. That being said - you should still always looks for confirmation based on your own trading strategy.
Disclaimer
I will do my best to give unbiased, objective analysis, but I can make no promises about my accuracy.
All posts are based on my personal opinions and ideas and do not constitute professional financial investment advice.