Daily Crypto Analysis - 10th Jan - Technical Analysis

Bitcoin

Bitstamp:BTCUSD 4h
(Bitstamp:BTCUSD 4h)

As suggested in my previous post, Bitcoin saw a pullback above the 38.2% support to around the $15500 level before continuing its downwards trend. Since then we have broken down as far as $13400, with a similar sharp retrace.
We can see some bullish divergence on the MACD and two hammers at the bottom, showing some weakness in this downtrend. I wouldn't be surprised to see greater pullback and a bit of sideways movement. But, long as Bitcoin doesn't break above the $15500 range, I would still consider this bearish and would expect to see a retest of the $13400 support in the near future.

Bitstamp:BTCUSD 1h
(Bitstamp:BTCUSD 1h)

On the 1 hour candles we can see the bullish divergence on the RSI and MACD much more clearly. The resistance level around $15000 makes a good checkpoint to watch for a bearish continuation signal. We should see a retest of lows in the next few days if the bearish movement is to continue.
For the bulls in the market, I would be very cautious here. There is a strong possibility of further drops, so I would advise waiting for a good confirmation sign, such as a double bottom, before opening any longs.

Ethereum

Bitstamp:ETHUSD 4h.png
(Bitstamp:ETHUSD 4h)

Ethereum has seen a very strong bull run over the last two weeks with an increase of just over 100%. However, we all know that no bull run can last forever and we're seeing some short term weakness in this trend. There is clear bearish divergence on the RSI and some less pronounced divergence on the MACD.
The trend has also reached the 1.27 fib area of the expected target ($1166 target from $670), which is a common level to retrace from.
In the medium term I am bullish on Ethereum, however a retrace would be healthy for the market and would give a good entry level ready for the next leg up.

Poloniex:ETHBTC 4h
(Poloniex:ETHBTC 4h)

On the Bitcoin ratio we don't see the same divergence as the USD pair, but we are currently in a region of significant historical resistance. It would be good to see some consolidation around this level ready for another bull run, but it isn't unlikely that we continue the bullish trend for a while longer.
I would definitely wait for a decent retrace and consolidation before opening any new positions, and if you have an open position then it is never a bad idea to start slowly taking profit. Trading is about maximising your profit while minimising risk, so locking in a bit of profit can be helpful.

Bitcoin Cash

Bitfinex:BCHUSD 4h
(Bitfinex:BCHUSD 4h)

Bitcoin cash is still in its consolidation zone after pushing up from the 61.8% support once again. A healthy consolidation in a bullish market is a good sign of a strong bull run once we break upwards, and makes a good place to be opening positions.
We need to keep an eye out for a break of the current resistance zone for the start of the new bull run.

Poloniex:BCHBTC 4h
(Poloniex:BCHBTC 4h)

The ratio tells a very bullish story for BCH. After a strong rejection of 0.14 and a bit of consolidation above the 61.8% support, we are now pushing up towards the 38.2% resistance and will likely be retesting highs in the next few days.
If Bitcoin continues its bearish trend, then we can expect to see much greater increases on the ratio into the future.

Disclaimer

I will do my best to give unbiased, objective analysis, but I can make no promises about my accuracy.
All posts are based on my personal opinions and ideas and do not constitute professional financial investment advice.

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