Daily Crypto Analysis - 7th Mar - technical AnalysissteemCreated with Sketch.

in #cryptocurrency7 years ago (edited)

Bitcoin

Bitstamp:BTCUSD 2h
(Bitstamp:BTCUSD 2h)

After forming a breaking from the ascending wedge and forming a double top at $11688, Bitcoin has proceeded to make a sharp drop on high volume, with especially high volume on the previous candlestick. This pullback comes as no surprise, as Bitcoin was showing weakness all the way up towards $11780.

In the very short term, the previous candle saw a very strong bounce from the 38.2% support, so its advisable to wait to see how the bounce plays out before taking on any shorts. The bounce also came with extremely high volume, which makes sense after a $1200 span within a single 2h period.
If we form a bearish continuation pattern, then we can look at taking on a short/ hedging position. Waiting for the top of a formation like an ascending wedge would give us a better entry price.

In the slightly bigger picture, a test of the 50% macro retracement (~$8850) is looking likely. If we can find support here, it would make a good level for a new bull run. If not, a retest of $6k very much possible.
Both margin longs and shorts are still very high here, with longs rising steadily for the last few weeks. Someone is betting big on a continued Bitcoin rise, with no real reduction in margin usage throughout the dip. While it isn't impossible that these numbers are being specifically inflated (taking longs on bitfinex and hedging elsewhere) to give false signals to the market, it's still something to watch, albeit with a grain of salt.


Ethereum

Bitstamp:ETHBTC 2h.png
(Bitstamp:ETHBTC 2h)

ETHBTC appears to have found support above 0.07317, with yet more bullish divergence on the RSI and MACD and a nice double bottom. We'll have to see whether we can break through the 0.07730 support and hold in the next few days, or if we form a bearish consolidation. Another large drop on Bitcoin could form a counter-trend bull run on ETHBTC.

Based on fundamentals, ETHBTC should be bullish in the medium/ long term, but that has little bearing on short term trading. This is a mistake that many (including myself) make when going from investing into shorter term trading. To trade effectively, you need to have an objective view on that the market is saying in the present, not what you want it to be saying or where the fundamentals say it should go.


Bitcoin Cash

Poloniex:BCHBTC 2h
(Poloniex:BCHBTC 2h)

Bitcoin Cash has pushed lower over the last week, to find a support level around 0.1097. There was double bullish divergence on both the RSI and MACD, yet no strong bounce upwards. This gives mixed messages, as we're sitting on top of relatively weak support with little indication of a bullish break despite all the bullish signals. However, we are also seeing extremely low correlation to Bitcoin, which is unusual. If we can hold above support through another sharp dip, then I'd be inclined to call this bullish, as historically altcoin ratios follow in Bitcoin corrections.


NEO

Binance:NEOBTC 2h
(Binance:NEOBTC 2h)

Neo continued its drop past 0.010363 to find some support around 0.009500 after some more bullish divergence on the RSI and MACD. This level is particularly notable, as it marks the 127% fib extension of the previous bearish leg. This is a common maximum extension for a movement. If we can hold this support level, then we can start looking for new bullish positions.


Litecoin

Poloniex:LTCBTC 2h
(Poloniex:LTCBTC 2h)

Litecoin continues its descent into the floor, testing the 0.01808 support which marks the 100% retracement of the last bull run. Such low volume descent, which has slowed over the last week or so, looks to be more of a bullish pullback rather than a longer term bearish movement.
However, we need to hold a strong support level before we can look for any bullish movement, otherwise we run the risk of drifting even lower.


Monero

Poloniex:XMRBTC 2h
(Poloniex:XMRBTC 2h)

Monero saw a big break upwards on the 3rd before finding support at the 0.03045 peak of the last bull run and making a second leg up.
However, there appears to be significant bearish divergence on both the RSI and MACD, with a large drop off in volume on this second leg. This is a sign of weakness to the trend, and I would wait for a strong pullback before taking on any positions.


Disclaimer

I will do my best to give unbiased, objective analysis, but I can make no promises about my accuracy.
All posts are based on my personal opinions and ideas and do not constitute professional financial investment advice.

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Coins mentioned in post:

CoinPrice (USD)📉 24h📉 7d
BTCBitcoin9794.090$-9.07%-7.21%
ETHEthereum738.797$-9.36%-14.84%
LTCLitecoin181.213$-7.58%-12.82%
NEONEO97.354$-7.2%-28.06%
XMRMonero330.140$-4.36%13.71%

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