BTC update
11/03/2019/10:00CET
Are we going to retest the lows or is that it. Bottom is in! Lets take a quick look at the chart and see.
BTCUSD Bitstamp 1D
- We are trading at 3864usd at press time
- I've added a new trend line, this time ascending. There is only 2 contacts at the moment that is why it is a lighter blue. A touch off from this line will solidify it as a trend indicator.
- We remain positively outside out old descending trend channel. The center and lower bounds are now losing relevance, but are not completely out of the TA picture.
- Important in front of us, if we continue on a positive trend is the big round of 4k, but probably more important is the previous recent highs at the 4110 usd level.
- We are now riding on top of both the 50 and 100 day momentum indicators. Good sign.
- The last time we were out on top of the 100 dma was back in August 2018! And even then it was sporadic. We are now into day 20 of being over this indicator. The last time in August we were only there for 9 days. And previous to that there were only 2 other times which was July 2018 (9 days) and April 2018 (18 days). Prior to that it was the bull run of 2017.
BTCUSD bitstamp daily log chart with 100dma indicator
So where to from here?
- I think we are still balancing on a knife edge in terms of: bottom is in, vs we are retesting 3k_.
- Being on top of all bar the 200 dma indicators is a huge boost to confidence, no denying it, but we want to be bulls, so we have to correct that bias all the time and stare at the bear cases twice as long.
- Remember picking bottoms is a game of chance, we want trading to be a game of probable outcomes. If you like pure chance, there is probably a casino nearby.
- I want to see a price action above the 4100 level before probabilities favour taking long positions.
- In saying that I do NOT want to see #btc spike up to this level in some panic bid. I want a slow grind upward with slowly increasing volumes. Say over the next 4-6 weeks. (what am I saying. That is a pipe dream of steady organic market action. You only get this out of the S&P500 with the FED put backstopping the market 2016-2017)
- The whales are still out there and they will keep splashing about as long as that strategy works.
- Dip buying is starting to look like quite an intelligent strategy for the medium to long term.
Note:
I am not covering alts at the moment because there is a lot going on and I do not have the time to publish analysis on them.
As always guys, leave comments, have fun and trade safe.
Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. Before investing any funds do your own research and make your own decisions. Cryptocurrencies are highly speculative.
And finally: Do not invest money you are not comfortable losing.
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Bonus content:
Just as a look back in time, here is the same daily log line chart with the 100dma, but this time showing the price action we saw in the aftermath of the 2014 correction
