Crypto update

in #cryptocurrency11 months ago

Bitcoin is holding fast consolidating as the world burns. What is coming next for the new safe haven asset?

BTCUSD Daily on Bitstamp

  • #Bitcoin is trading at 11351USD at press time.
  • Volatility has dropped as we have entered a range bound period between 11500 and 11250 for the last 40h
  • Prior to that we had a similar but more bouncy period bound between the 12000 and 11500 levels
  • The consensus in the TA world is that the healthiest thing right now is to hold around this level and consolidate.
  • The 21DEMA is close to meeting the support at 11150usd. This is a level to watch for now.
  • For our best case to play out, we need to hold this level.
  • A break of this level would change our outlook to a likely retest of the 21 week EMA which is currently coming up to meet the 9100 support line.
  • But a word of warning for the dip buyer, I expect a test of the low 9k level to be extremely short lived. I will be joining a tsunami of buyers if we go back into the 4 fig. prices.
  • To end of bulls. Above us the 12000 level is the resistance to break. If it is broken, a rally to the 13300-13850 becomes more likely.

Macro Triggers...

There are literally sooooo many potential negative triggers around at the moment.

  • Hong Kong political and financial tensions. Yes Financial since Hong Kong is almost out of USD to defend the peg, and the US dollar is rising. This peg defense has blown 80% of their reserves in the last 12 mth. Not much left to go.
  • Deutsche Bank is slowly rotting away in the center of Europe
  • Italy is reaching a tipping point politically, which is likely to test the resilience of the EU common currency.
  • The US Fed has cut rates for the first time in over 10y. Is this a once and done or is this the start of a new easing cycle, and probably the most important question, can the fed keep the market placated anymore?
  • 2nd Tier macro indicators all over the place are screaming recession all over the world.
  • White hot real estate markets around the world are reversing. Will these bubbles fizzle or explode?
  • One country after another is easing, wanting to be in front of the US easing cycle.
  • Gold is hitting all time highs in many currencies. If we use Gold instead of the USD to value currencies, then most are falling off a cliff as we layer on currency wars on to the already insane trade wars.
  • How far away are we from a trigger error and the rapid escalation to a shooting war? the Persian gulf, Kashmir, South China sea, SE Ukraine, Hong Kong, take your pick.
  • Bitcoin is about to have its prime use case tested. #Satoshi left little room for misinterpretation when it came to his motivation for Bitcoin. Now after 10 years of getting ready, we, ladies and gentlemen, are about to see it put to the test!
  • If ever my gut was telling me something, it is: get ready for action, get out of Fiat and all paper claim instruments, and get into hard assets. We should all be thinking wealth preservation first.

Well we cannot complain that things are boring!