COINBASE indirectly signalling SELL BITCOIN?

in #cryptocurrency7 years ago (edited)

Coinbase might be indirectly signalling "sell bitcoin" to the market, and they don't know it.
Look, we are big fans of "buying the dip", so we're not saying there won't be an opportunity, we're just saying it isn't today. Here's our reasoning, feel free to make arguments in the comments.

At this point, does anyone really believe Coinbase? Ok, so if you DO believe Coinbase, do you believe that a company trying so hard to be the New York Stock Exchange of crypto hasn't properly prepared for a high volume day in crypto-land? VERY hard to believe they are YET AGAIN unprepared to handle higher volumes-- ESPECIALLY in this day-an-age of distributed de-centralized computer-ware. Miners can react these days, they can switch hashing to places of need rather quickly, this isn't 2012 anymore! We live in an age of on-demand computer via Amazon's AWS and Google's "Cloud Platform" lowering prices as fast as they can build shiny new servers. Long story short, it's VERY unbelievable today's shutdown is due to technicality, it FEELS a lot more like a "circuit breaker" switch flip by those in control at Coinbase. Why would they do this?

Why do governments have "circuit breaker" rules on stock markets? To prevent panic. Does it work? Sorta, but not ultimately, and sometimes it has the opposite effect even near term! The crypto world is the "Wild Wild West", it's largely unregulated, and furthermore Coinbase if heavily regulated would probably HAVE circuit breakers anyway.
So whether Coinbase management already has deals with their regulators, or whether they are still allowed to "go rogue" and shut down their own market, the effect is the same either way--> immediately this cuts off the selling, right?
If Coinbase freezes customers, they can't sell the panic anymore, thus sellers are cut off, and a large removal of sellers allows "buy the dippers" to outnumber them. Sounds great, right?? RIGHT! In the very short term, it causes what's know as a "deadcat bounce", but not a recovery-- and that's key. The difference between a bounce and a recovery, is bounces suffer from gravity eventually, just like a bouncing ball. The "BUT THE F'G DIP" strategy you WANT to implement, is buying ahead of a RECOVERY (not a bounce). We support the latter, but think it's not going to happen today; today we'd label a deadcat bounce, with a lower low coming to theaters near you.

Asleep again? How do you make money from here on your longer-term crypto holdings? Answer: Buy the NEXT dip, not today's dip.

When Coinbase thinks the coast is clear, or when their engineers (cough cough) catch up with high volumes, they will restore trading, and this will eventually cause balance to be restored. By balance, we mean a LOT of pissed-off Coinbase traders who couldn't do anything today, bc they were going to sell their ball and go home. After Coinbase restores trading, we suspect that might cause one last upwards heave in the deadcat bounce, as the FIRST customers to react will be those greedy folks who're mad they missed this morning's bottom-- buying up that dead cat. Those are the types you'll be buying from later, when new lows are made in this Xmas Crypto-Massacre. So wait until you see the tears in their eyes, wait for that break below $10,000. It will most likely look VERY frightening, and if you think it took bravery to buy today, it'll be even harder to buy when you see it dropping like a stone again. MAN UP!

We hope you managed to hang in there today, but we think it's not the time to be brave yet.
Best of Trading fellow STEEMIANS!!

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I’ve already bought and sold several times since the crash. I usually don’t hold my biggest positions over night anymore, cuz I don’t trust coinbase or anybody else in this space. There’s still opportunity to make money imo

Agreed, we're mainly talking in a matter of days or weeks. Would be really surprised to see bitcoin break to new all-time highs before it breaks the lows set 4 days ago. That's pretty much all we're saying. Beware a dead cat bounce, and so far so good on that bounce.

Hello @harpooninvesto. I saw a Jimmy Song video where he said the exchanges are saddled with obsolete software (built mostly near 2012) and not too competent developers.

Also, if your analysis is right, why did they not say they flipped pre-planned circuit breakers? After all we are already accustomed to that in the stocks and commodities! I am not saying you are wrong -- just saying their shyness on this point is odd.

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