Crash Imminent: IMF Raising Concern About Global Debt

Remember the time of the last major economic crisis?

That was the financial crisis about a decade ago where the "collapse of Lehman Brothers, a sprawling global bank, in September 2008 almost brought down the world's financial system", according to The Economist.

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That major incident will make what is coming seem extremely minor. A year ago, the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, gave a stern warning about an alarming rise of the private sector debt.

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This Zero Hedge article stated:

Fast forward exactly one year to today, when the IMF once again sounded the alarm on debt, only this time on the public side of the ledger, warning about - what else - excessive global borrowing, and noting that with a total of $164 trillion of debt, or 225% of global debt to GDP. The world’s public and private sectors are more in debt now than at the peak of the 2008 financial crisis, when global debt/GDP peaked at 213%.

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When looking at the big picture, needless to say it's all about the US, China and Japan: these three countries alone accounted for half of the $164tr total in global public and private sector debt. And speaking again of China, its debt surged from $1.7 trillion in 2001 to $25.5 trillion in 2016, and was described by the IMF as the "driving force" behind the increase in global debts, accounting for three-quarters of the rise in private sector debt in the past decade.

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The surge in global debt is a major issue. Zero Hedge stated:

Whatever the differences in debt calculating methodology, both agencies can agree on one thing: debt has never been greater and it once again poses an existential threat to the so-called "coordinated recovery", which of course, only exists thanks to said surge in global debt.

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Zero Hedge reported that they found it strange that not many people are talking about this major problem. We know that a collapse is imminent.

What we again find odd is how quiet everyone was for the past ten years when central banks, by keeping interest rates at record low levels, enabled the world's biggest debt issuance spree, for both public and private debt, and now that debt is at a level that even Goldman recently said is no longer sustainable, suddenly everyone - from central banks, to bank CEOs, to NGOs - is screaming from the rooftops how dangerous debt really is.

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Not only does the IMF have a lot of concern, but they are really concerned with the dangerous levels the United States has reached. The United States was pointed out by Vitor Gaspar, the IMF Director, saying that it "stands out". He also stated:

“We urge policymakers to avoid pro-cyclical policy actions that provide unnecessary stimulus when economic activity is already pacing up,” Gaspar said; what he really meant was "Trump, stop what you are doing before you lead to a debt funding crisis, that finally bursts the global debt bubble. "

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The other issue this article pointed out was the rising rates.

There is another threat: rising rates. The IMF said that the interest burden has doubled in the past ten years to close to 20% of taxes, an escalating cost which "reflects in part the increasing reliance on nonconcessional debt, as countries have gained access to international financial markets and expanded domestic debt issuance to nonresidents."
Echoing its warning from April 2017, The IMF again noted it is was concerned that private sector debts make the global economy more vulnerable to a new financial crisis started by "an abrupt deleveraging process" where borrowers all tighten their belts simultaneously, sending the economy into a nosedive.
"In the event of a financial crisis, a weak fiscal position increases the depth and duration of the ensuing recession, as the ability to conduct countercyclical fiscal policy is significantly curtailed."
So what should policymakers - having gotten used to flooding the world in debt - do? Why the opposite, of course: as the FT summarizes, with the global economy growing strongly, the IMF recommended countries stop using lower taxes or higher public spending to stimulate growth and instead try to reduce the burden of public sector debts so that countries have more leeway to act in the next recession.
Translation: no tax cuts, no increases to deficit spending, i.e. another dig at everything that Trump is doing.

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So, if fiat currency is what is more in danger, what about cryptocurrency? The article stated:

There was the obligatory dig at bitcoin, although the IMF at least conceded that unlike some $500 trillion in derivatives, a few billion in bitcoin and ethereum do not currently appear to pose any risk to financial stability, "But they could do if they become more widely used", in other words, don't you dare even think of alternatives to fiat currencies.

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The article finished with a strong ending statement.

Actually, come to think of it, it all makes sense when one considers that it is the very policies that define modern finance and economics, that have led the world to this precipice. In fact, reading the IMF report between the lines, it is nothign more than advance scapegoating for the inevitable global debt crisis that is coming, and which not even the IMF is hiding any more. What is most comical - if completely expected - is that the IMF is now blaming it all on Trump: not on generations of economists who steered the world to the point where there is more than $3 of debt for every $1 of GDP, and not on central bankers who flooded the world with debt so that the richest 0.01% can be richer than their wildest dream. Nope: it's all Trump's fault.

Somehow we doubt this advance damage control will work after the next, and likely final, CRASH.

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There is so much more to this, so please read the article in full. Did you catch that last statement though? That's right, a CRASH will occur, but obviously, no one knows exactly when. We have been given many warning signs and the time to invest in something safe is the smartest option! Cryptocurrency is going to be the way to go for the future, but which one is always the question?

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