23rd May
Bitcoin: $7,969.92
Market Cap: $355,152,154,914
I go away for a few days and look what you’ve done. To be fair this is what I’ve been suspecting all along – I wasn’t taken in by talk of an alt season while there was still the risk of BTC doing this. We had a nice run and made some nice gains, but this was always on the cards. For this reason I reduced much of my alt exposure and sat mainly in TRX as a safe bet for the month with mainnet coming up, which has proved a decent strategy as TRX hasn’t lost out as much as some others. My dabbling in shitcoin trading didn’t work out thanks to BTC and I lost a couple of thousand, but before that I did make some nice gains, particularly riding CNN from 8 sats to 27 (could have been 45 if I’d have sold at the right time, but that’s beginners ignorance for you), When I’m in crypto full time I will try and get more into shitcoin trading because the potential profits are just outrageous, and it will keep me busy.
So what’s behind the continued drop in the markets, primarily BTC? For me, two main things, leading to lots of other things. Firstly there are many out there with a vested interested in getting the price as low as possible in order to buy in cheaply and who will use any methods they can to achieve this. This is particularly the case since Consensus, which I believe could prove in time to be the striking of the match that lit the firework that shot this whole thing to the moon. So combined with this desire to find a nice entry price, we also have a mass exodus of retail investors who lost their shirts after buying into the hype, leaving exhausted hodlers like me with no fresh capital to put in. So with low volume in most exchanges compared to recent months and no fresh money coming in, it’s no surprise we’re drifting like a raft in a calm sea, with the only money in the ecosystem being recycled into various projects and out again. This is a real shame because this was lined up to be a great 12 week period with a bunch of mainnet releases offering natural catalysts, but alas it looks like it’s not to be. We will have bounces off certain support zones on the way down, but without any fresh impetus I do worry that we are entering a multi-week/month bear cycle. I don’t have any evidence for this, and this was a theory I was rejecting just a few weeks ago, but the longer we go without the kind of volume required to break resistance the more it seems that apart from the odd spike we’re going to carry on sinking gradually until we hit the point where institutional money can’t resist any longer. I could, and want to be, wrong, but without an ETF or a reason for new money to come in, all we’ll do is keeping having these false starts. How long will this take? No one knows. All we do know is that some institutions are ready to buy in, but many have to form strategies and clear them with their superiors before doing anything, and that takes time.
Long term I’m confident, because this money will come in, it’s just a case of waiting. This is where patience plays its part. Trying to trade now is suicide, and I’m crap in good conditions, so I’m just waiting it out.
Yawn.