Day 4 of Bitcoin Mining in HashFlare: the effect of bitcoin price drop. Hashrate 5.07

Yesterday I was very happy, with thoughts of investing $10k or even $20k to buy hashpower, I was getting emotional, but fortunately, I managed to take control and reason with my brain and not the heart. Today bitcoin has fallen to $13,000 and that had a significant effect on the time to recover the investment!

This is the update on the account history:

So the payout was 0.00066367 (@ $13.000 = $8.627) and the maintenance fee 0.0001224 ($1.591). As of the time of writing, the reinvestment has not happened yet so I'll have to account for that tomorrow in my next post. Without the reinvestment the net payout today is 0.00054127 ($7.036).

The hashrate is still 5.07 TH/s because the reinvestment hasn't happened yet.

Pool allocation stays today at 100% BW like yesterday

And here comes how the bitcoin price affects the time to recover the investment. It has dropped from yesterday's $319.78 to $261.04 per month :(

I have now prepared a spreadsheet that takes into account both the fees and the reinvestment to track with more precision the time to recover the investment.

Here we can see that I'll need 5.21 months to recover my $1100. That is a more than the 3 months that I was expecting to take. Three months recovering and 9 having net profits sounds good, but almost half a year to recover the investment doesn't sound that good now. Obviously, 5.21 is not bad if we think in traditional investments, but with bitcoin, we have been spoiled and the expectations are set to a completely different level ;)

But what worries me more is what it will happen if bitcoin drops further. Here is a simulation of the result if bitcoin drops to $5600

If bitcoin drops to that price I will almost break even, well, in fact, I'll lose a few dollars. So I really hope that it doesn't go that low. And that is without taking into account the network difficulty that could make things worse if the reinvestment in hashpower is not enough to compensate for the difficulty increase.

One question: if the price of bitcoin decreases, does also the difficulty usually decrease? If that is the case maybe we could have a little bit more margin before start losing money.

What do you think? Your comments are welcomed.

History:

• Day 3 of Bitcoin Mining in HashFlare: earnings rate increases. Hashrate 5.07 TH/s
  https://steemit.com/tag/@freedomvigilante/day-3-of-bitcoin-mining-in-hashflare-earnings-rate-increases-hashrate-5-07-th-s
• Day 2 of Bitcoin Mining in HashFlare: first results, time to break even. Hashrate 5.04 TH/s https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@freedomvigilante/day-2-of-bitcoin-mining-in-hashflare-first-results-time-to-break-even-hashrate-5-04-th-s
• Day 1 of Bitcoin Mining in HashFlare: would it be profitable? Investing $1100 initially
  https://steemit.com/hashflare/@freedomvigilante/day-1-of-bitcoin-mining-in-hashflare-would-it-be-profitable-investing-usd1100-initially

Other interesting posts:

• Do we create our own reality? What is reality?
  https://steemit.com/meditation/@freedomvigilante/do-we-create-our-own-reality-what-is-reality

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