Are the bears taking over?
I am very bullish on the crypto market. I believe blockchain will have a significant impact on how we trust, how we think about governance and how we work.
I believe January to be a difficult market for crypto - it was at least for last years as the post of @ehujra shows.
But now it is already end of january and we still struggeling in the fear zone fighting to stay above the very last support lines which hold us. After they are failing us there is a lot of no mans land with no support in sight before we hopefully find the bottom at around 7‘000.
@ew-and-patterns predicted current bitcoin movement the best from my point of view. See his post especially last one here
@haejin one of the most active TA expert is also bearish. read here
And Tone Vays here is also clearly bearish now.
3 experts I highly respect are bearish and they all have in common a target around 7‘000.
This means at least another massive down swing ahead. Are we than coming back to an uptrend?
I still think so because several things don‘t add up for me when thinking of a 1 year plus bear market.
- Wall Street just got in. I can’t imagine that they are just leaving after a few weeks.
- Mike Novogratz postponed his fund in December stating bitcoin is too high to buy right now. That means for me there is money waiting to go into the market but just not for 16k. But if we go down to 7‘000 I am expecting a lot of meney trying to get in to not miss again a run up.
- Feb through Mai usually a lot of money wants to be invested due to bonuses and dividends.
- MACD show strong oversold signals
On the otherhand
- current pattern remembers me how things happened in 2014
- If things crash to 7k with a lot of people in the market going through their first correction a lot more people will overreact. That might lead even 7k support is vaporized
- Fundamentally - if you really look what you get - the market is still based on hopes so not much support from here.
My conclusion - I think we are facing another serious correction wave at best. It might turn out that we stay bearish for a couple of weeks but than we should turn back bullish. Accumulating cash for a rebuy will be my strategy for the next days.
Seems that for 4 years straight, bitcoin has been on it's lowest point mid january, and i also saw a post regarding that. Last week was like $9k range, but we have bounced back up to $13k yesterday, with an average of $11-12k for the last 3 days.
It's a healthy trend i could say, even the oil giant Shell got on board to the blockchain community. :)
Happy to hear a bull - hope you are right and I am wrong!
I'm just a happy optimist in life. Even in crypto too. :D
It seems at the moment I can't give you applause for being right ... even though I would love too
To me, these are all good indicators that we're close to an uptrend. There's a popular saying among "old" investors who have looked at trends for 20, 30, 50 years: "The market climbs a wall of worry." Often it seems a lot of pessimism is the precursor to a rally.
Cool - haven‘t heard that expression. Thank you for sharing.
Always buy the dips. But that would mean you always have money set aside that is not yet in crypto. Difficult. I just HODL.
That is a good point. HODL and Buy the dip does not always match. Of course if you gather every month some money to put into Crypto it might work very well.
I think it is very healthy if BTC corrects a bit further. We need to push the nervous hands out, before we can form a solid base for 2018.
It might sound a bit crazy. But I still see 100K for BTC at the end of 2018:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@naanoo/bitcoin-at-100-000-at-the-end-of-2018-btc-long-term-trend
We could even stay below 10k without hurting the long-term uptrend. But I am really in doubt that will happen. There is too much liquidity for that scenario. Low interest rates, high property and stock prices ... ideal setup for an asset class like crypto - not measurable and hyping.
An in case of BTC: there is no justification for a high market cap needed. BTC even needs a high cap to function as a safe-haven currency and store value.
Sunny Regards from Germany,
Sebastian | @naanoo
To the question in your title, my Magic 8-Ball says:
Hi! I'm a bot, and this answer was posted automatically
Oh I am so relieved ;-)
I have the same believe as you
I do believe that the price will go up again eventually, but maybe not yet. Now that Wall Street has jumped into the game, I think a lot of large players are waiting for the right moment to jump in, and let's face it: Now isn't exactly the safest moment. I think they won't jump in before prices have been stable for a while, just like after the China crash last year. It took a month before Bitcoin went back to its all time high before the crash and two and a half month before Litecoin did the same.
I see your point. If it is one or two month - no problem. As long as it is not a 2 year bear market like in 2014/15...
It really is a red monday again (we seem to have quite some of those). The whole story with the Bitcoin futures is what I think has quite an impact. Shorting BTC seems to be quite profitable unfortunately. You know what they say when Wallstreet comes in...
Yeah - it is a mess. Where are the good old times ;-)
Indeed! :-P
I am totally optimistic too - no matter if bear is coming now or not - the bull will win in the end. I read the prediction especially from @ew-and-patterns - let us see - who knows.
Interesting analysis i'm always curious what people think. Short term I'm bullish on BTC (and long term but it will have its ups and downs) as seen from my data below. Check this out if it interests you: https://steemit.com/steem/@weilii/introducing-the-neux-oracle-steem-and-bitcoin-trade-signals Just started following you, would appreciate a follow back if my price analysis content interests you as well :)