There's also the branding issue: if the blockchain does split than it will probably harm the ability of crypto to become mainstream thereby hindering it's "real" growth and development. Further, the psychology surrounding the price is definitely contrived by rumour and idle speculation and not much else. I believe that the end of the month will see Bitcoin and the rest of the alt market fall because that is the historical trend. The supports you pointed to may break and it will be a good time to buy in in any case. I think fear driving the transition has many investors, who don't understand the tech, nervous and this will create panic selling to tether-based currencies or fiat. I'm holding and I hope to pick up more once the drop levels out the price from the recent surge. All in all this might be a correction rather than a crash.