Crypto Dives AGAIN? Trading and Some Warnings

in cryptocurrency •  11 months ago

Bitcoin is down yet again - it's the January blues. As always, the same question is on everyone's mind: Opportunity or trap? To which I say, I have no idea! But given that volume seems to have been declining while Bitcoin has been rising and vice versa these past few weeks, this suggests that upward momentum has been relatively weak and downward momentum is stronger. This is a valid concern.

More importantly, given I allocated what I wanted to allocate at this level last week, I won't be purchasing any Bitcoin. I remain firm on the level mentioned previously at $8,300, but otherwise will not be buying in to any further dips or corrections. I also won't be buying to upside unless there is a significant sign that suggests more bullish activity (e.g: high volume to upside).

I spend a decent amount of time in this video discussing "hot" cryptocurrencies, currently Vechain but the idea really appeals to all of them. Perception is so far detached from reality now with Vechain (but again, could be applied to any other "hot" cryptocurrency) that it has become exceptionally risky.

Tacking blockchain onto RFID doesn't suddenly remove all the inherent issues that RFID has had for (wait for it) decades now. Just like Raiblocks has corrected nearly 50% since I talked about it being the "flavor of the week," I would be cautious investing at highs for Vechain.

I also wanted to point out that a lot of cryptocurrencies are taking older technologies and tacking blockchain on it to capitalize on this craze. That isn't to say these are scams, which some people seem to unfortunately mistake my comments as insinuating. Rather it is to point out that blockchain is not an end all, be-all solution. Note that "reducing counterfeits" was a key argument for RFID 20 years ago and look where it is today in that specific use case.

The point of my little "rant" in this video is that while it may seem that cryptocurrencies are brand new, there is really only a few new elements and a TON of modifications from there. Understanding the base technologies which are decades old will help you separate the substance from the fluff. And trust me, there is a LOT of fluff.

Moving back to markets, as for altcoins, I am really only looking at a few that I like which are still a little too high for me to want to buy more (e.g: Monero and Steem). In short, I'm buying nothing in this dip currently - you don't always have to if you feel comfortable with your allocation.

What are your thoughts on the market and irrationality? Let me know in the comments below, thank you.

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When BTC peaked at $20K+, I was confident that it would correct, but I thought it would settle at around $15KUSD. I'm still feeling surprised that it's fluctuating between 10-13K. I will be even more surprised if it reaches the $8.3K mark. That $10K line is a strong psychological barrier, IMO. But then again....

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The 10k line was sliced through in the last 2 pullbacks and didn't seem to be much resistance. Today, however, it seemed to hold.

When BTC was on the way up from $15K up to $20K, the move was too parabolic. This is a much healthier market and institutional market will be moving in.

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institutional money is very cautious, if they do move in, why would they move into BTC?
the idea of institutional money moving in when there is so much uncertainty about the future of bitcoin and weather a coin that was created to be money will ever get the kind of backing that was once imagined, is no longer so promising imho.

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$10k seems like it should be a strong psychological barrier, but it certainly wasn't on the way up. BTC blew through $10k on the way up, so it certainly could do the same on the way down.

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I think we might see $8K pretty soon with this market conditions and news spreading FUD non stop just to get that clicks.

Besides the support on $10K level has been tested for multiple times now.

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Don't be too surprised by anything Bitcoin does and you'll be fine. I wake up every morning expecting it to either be up or down 20%.

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That's right. recently I am surprised to see it maintain let alone go up! it seems that there are less and less reasons to invest in bitcoin and more and more reasons to explore other coins recently, although I strongly believe in bitcoin's ability to fix all its current problems, it seems that the developers or those calling the shots among them have a different idea and direction which is becoming very suspicious.

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Like @lordprime said "This is a much healthier market", and I agree with that. The price of BTC is currently sitting at 10,884.60 USD (-0.03% change). The rampage momentum has dried up for the moment, but I'm willing to bet that it will greencandle up to $23K+ in 2018. I feel safe making that claim. Absolutely no facts or evidence to back up that claim, just a gut feeling that the momentum will boil up again this year. 2018 will be a rollercoaster... @cryptovestor, I dig your work. Keep it up.

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Absolutely true. I am personally waiting for the price of bitcoin to drop to 8-7k USD before buying a couple of coins and enjoying the volatility and observing the market trying to pass the 10-11k$ support over and over again. We will wait and see what the next month brings around. Fingers crossed 🤞🏽

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John Shill McAfee must be terrified by now! The next thing can happen is that he'll end up eating his own dick.

Very interesting analysis on VeChain. I didn't know too much about it, but again I loved your analysis and your bluntness as well. I've been watching since October now, and I always love the video.

The big question is when is this all going to go up, or at least when will the market stabilize again? We had another dip today, but it seems like there's less energy in cryptocurrencies right now. Maybe it is that January Blues. I get the feeling like a lot of people are waiting for something to trigger the market to go up, but that might take a while.

My guess, based on not that much, but a hunch and watching everything going on, we'll be stabilized by the end of the month and slowly going up overall.

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wait till someone analyses VChain. its another one with only V Chain. not out yet though...

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There likely needs to be a catalyst of some sort to push it forward rather than just going up out of nowhere like it does frequently.

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Cryptovestor, what do you think are the odds that the Robinhood crypto rollout serves as the catalyst? There are 896K people signed up currently. I am betting that the smart money sees this and that is why BTC is on its way up again. $11,499 at coinbase/gdax, $11,615.96 at Gemini, $11,898 Poloniex.

Nice level headed take as usual.

This is slightly off topic (at least, from a timing perspective) but do you see Bitcoin eventually losing its market position as the premier crypto? I don't think this downtrend is that moment but it's something I worry about. Bitcoin still has some significant advantages (hash rate leading to network security, fully tested cryptography, good dev environment, fiat on-ramps, de facto trading pair for alt coins, institutional focus, eventual ETF) so I'm not discounting it at this point. But it seems to me, none of these are impossible to overcome for ETH or any other 'alt'. ETH already has seen an explosion in fiat on-ramps and non-fiat, non-BTC trading volume in the last few months - what compels people to keep using BTC as a trading currency? Especially since moving it between exchanges is now completely impractical. Personally I think that if Bitcoin can't solve its transaction issues it will slowly be replaced by something else, whether that be ETH (my bet) or something else. Once an ETF for Bitcoin is released, and regulators are forced to admit the world hasn't catastrophically ended, what stops an Ethereum ETF from being created? Not much... so in the end, my question is: is institutional interest (and the money that comes with that interest) enough to keep Bitcoin at this level on the long-term? And what tends to shift institutional interest over time?

Would love to read your, or anybody else's thoughts on this.

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very good observations. Bitcoin cannot maintain the top position for many reasons including your accurate analysis. bitcoin took the bull by the horns and went very high very fast. The truth of the matter is there is no real reason for this. The fomo effect is short and sweet, unless there is a real vision for bitcoin to become a useful network (as was intended) then its just another altcoin and sadly it doesn't work and, it is way overpriced, making it very unlikely to find new investment in the short term.

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I don't, no. Given that most normal people associate Bitcoin with being cryptocurrency, if it fails to stay on top I suspect that will not set a good image to a lot of people. However, given how low float is for many cryptocurrencies, I do not see it as impossible to overtake Bitcoin on CoinMarketCap, but have my doubts they will overtake in real capital, time, and people invested.

Ethereum has way more security concerns than Bitcoin because it has much more sophisticated scripting for smart contracts - always remember that the more complex you make something, the more possibility of vulnerabilities (a reality we have faced with Ethereum over and over again). You can't fix that - it's a law of nature. It doesn't make Bitcoin superior, it just means Bitcoin is dumber and you literally CAN'T screw it up in the same ways you could Ethereum.

It's too soon to say what will happen in the long-term, but always remember that the most time has been invested in Bitcoin which can't be replaced with money. A lot of altcoins are just Bitcoin's codebase with a few tweaks made. Whether or not sidechains can be securely and practically implemented will be a key question going into the future. As we speak, just seeing Segwit and batching become adopted will clear up the bottlenecks we have in BItcoin now.

This isn't to say there isn't potential in other cryptocurrencies, but rather that it is not as simple as it seems (e.g: Bitcoin is expensive and slow, therefore should be replaced as it is impractical).

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absolutely

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What is up with those ridiculous amount you are getting papotus?
18.50$ for 1 vote.. 2.50$ for "Absolutely" hehe erm wut?

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Nice comment and rationale behind your ideas.

I too have my doubts about the "Bitcoin is the gold standard of cryptocurrencies" argument... While Bitcoin and gold both have a finite amount in existence, what makes gold different and in my opinion more valuable in the sense of scarcity, is that it can't be recreated (i.e. Bitcoin hard forks or other alts that use the same underlying code with added benefits or improvements). Gold is valuable because there is a limited supply— yes—but it is also valuable because the elements that comprise it are rare in the universe and is incredibly hard to create due to the extreme energy-intensive process. If you create something with the same chemical characteristics as gold you aren't making something different, you are making gold... that is why it cannot be replaced and deserves its status as a backing of fiat currencies.

While I have no idea if Bitcoin is going to $1,000,000 or $1,000 in the future, in my opinion, it won't be the gold standard forever. At the end of the day, it's technology and tech always improves, while precious metals do not.

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"Bitcoin is a store of value". An excuse which holds no value.

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here here

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I do some digital marketing on the side and understand the importance of brand. I tell people I invest in crypto and they are like what is that. I say bitcoin and the lightbulb moment happens. For better or worse bitcoin is the household name. But I agree with all your points. I buy eth to move between exchanges and for buy and hold. There are so many erc20 tokens that validate the existence of eth. I personally think we will have niches. I am very interested in projects like Polymath looking to bring securities easily onto the blockchain. Getting into an either or debate is like asking if Google or Amazon is more powerful.

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I'm with you here. I've been thinking about this for a little while now, and it makes sense if ETH overtakes bitcoin at some point. There's too many negatives about bitcoin and Ethereum itself makes it like a little internet is being built with it.

What good can bitcoin really do now? The transaction fees are crazy (although they are around $1 right now), it's losing vendors and adoption is down, and the transaction speeds are too slow. But at the same time, I get the sense that bitcoin could shoot up out of nowhere at some point. And it's not like Bitcoin can't change either.

One big successful update to the Bitcoin blockchain could change everything. If it could lower the transaction fees way down, bring the speed way up, and get the adoption to increase, then there's no saying where the price of bitcoin could end up. It already has the awareness and the name.

For now the market as a whole seems like a big waiting game.

Hey Cryptovestor. I have a few points, that you didnt explain deeper and I'd like to hear your opinions.

1 - Don't you think that it's kinda reasonable btc's dominance moving down? Market is getting bigger, there are things faster/cheaper than Btc and market (at least some part) already realise that? So it means BTC have to lose it in long term. But I'm not saying btc will die. I'm just an investor and I focus on making money, it's nothing personal.

2 - You kinda answered it with two magical words MASS ADOPTION, and I'm curious why you are still that bullish, once we have things like VEN / ETH / Waves etc. that you already can use for something? Isn't it just an old dogma, that BTC has to be >50?% . I'm also oldschooler, when i came to cryptos in 2013, i bought 8 things and i literally had whole market. So btc #1 , yes i agree, but i'd find an argument that it will slow down, and new projects w reasonable use will take their own (big) parts. Whole my point is basically that we expect cryptos will have some real life USE , but there's lack of it for btc

3 - For what exactly we will need BTC if :

a - you can buy alts w fiat (waves dex, vertbase etc. in the future)
b- you can buy alts w eth / ltc / neo / something random big directly
c- you can SWITCH alts cuz token swaps/atomic swaps etc. ?
d- you can store value/trading capital in something more "boring" and less volatile... I'd say LTC/XRP but it had also crazy action lately, but you get the point

4 - Why exactly you hated mindset w this logic

I have 20 000$, what makes bigger gains?

a) I have alt w reasonable tech, hype, events and it has mcap 100mil, so i think it will double at least
b) I have btc, what's chance to double on 20k$

You said it's bad mindset, maybe im kinda overthinking that, but once im not a new, buying some stupid thing w lambo/moon hype and have some kinda of attitude ( check events, that thing itself, s/r lvl, cap, supply,team behind, is it PnD or not, is it real use/concept, enough hype, grups shilling it etc) ... Why it's just that bad , when i says yes, i think this think will make more than 2x cuz this and that, vs btc (on 20k for example) that needs 2x capital incoming (rougly obv) ..

Thanks for your time and thanks for everything you've helped me it, in your videos.

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very good questions and observations, thank you

Nice vid. I agree...gonna have to wait it out with BTC. Doesn't seem like anyone is too sure which direction it's headed. As for VeChain...I like the concept and missed the boat, but there is no way I'm getting in at these prices. It hasn't had a major correction yet. People are way too optimistic on it.

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I agree with your thoughts on VEN. I bit into the Raiblocks hype and I bought some at 25 dollars, and now I'm almost 50% down on that investment. Clearly you were right - it wasn't ready for primetime, and a lot of issues came up with it's integration with exchanges that it became clear it was super overvalued.

I think VEN is a promising project, but like all altcoins, as long as it sees barely any usage and all we hear is "partnerships" (I hate that word) then to me it's a shitcoin.

The thing that would have saved you this January is if you moved all of your money into ETH, which has been on an incredible bullrun in January and has very impressively sustained itself around 1000USD. I think ETH is by far the safest investment at the moment, but that could change at any time - we've seen it drop more than 50% before, and I suspect that kind of correction is coming up.

This kind of movement proves a point you've made many times in your video that altcoins are becoming more and more like crummy penny stocks while things that are actually being used (e.g Bitcoin, Ether, Monero, etc.) are the "safe" places to be in corrections like this.

Personally since most of my altcoins are currently at a loss, swapping them out for Ether is not a good move. I just have to hold and wait, unfortunately.

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The key is to buy alt coins at a boring time. I bought VeChain a while back. I profited off Tron despite how dreadful a project it is because I bought at four cents. I never even bothered researching Raiblocks because I clearly heard about it too late.

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Flight to safety when the market isn't behaving well is never too bad an idea (ironically there is no safe place in crypto, only safer).

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that's right

My take is that Bitcoin is in an extended correction, we all know there's constant FUD as we're not the only ones who are wishing for a low entry... there's institutions, and they are really working on it, with new bad news every day. Quite successfully, there's not much trust right now...

Also, there's the TA and Bitcoin is in a triangle, a big one that stretches from December to March, and my guess is that there wont be a major breakout before February 10th. So, relax...
Most TAs are constantly correcting their counts and expect changes from day to day but lets be honest :
We all want lower rates and we'll only be satisfied if the bear market lasts for awhile.
It just wasn't low enough yet, and once it's over we can look forward way more confidently.

If anyone thinks this is the end of the crypto market, I can only say DON'T BE ABSURD. This will be a great year, it just has a late start.
what about.png

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Hi,
Not sure on what you based your horizontal support line here ? It just seems to me that, pre-january 15th, you could as well have decided to draw it on the 11000 line... I myself am kinda holding to the hope that we don't go too close to (or past down) the 8000 (as this is close to my average entry level) and that we'll see a consolidation, but I'm actually wondering if I wouldn't be better off taking the small profits I still can make, pull back a little and wait for a clear market direction.
I'm also quite tempted to compare the actual situation with an oddly similar price action we met in the past :

Euphoria, parabolic rally, double top, severe correction, 'back on track', even more severe 'correction', nice rally (without volume) and then...
Besides the fact that the support line there seems way more solid, imo, with at least 3 to 4 contact points,
at that time the pullback we saw reached 69% down from the top. In today's price, a similar pullback would put us way below the 8000, around 6000k.
Afterwards, that 2014 'compression' ended on a nice +60% rally... before a downtrend that took 2 years to reverse (and passed trough an 86% down from the ATH - today that would mean something like 2600k).
I totally agree on the not-the-end-of-the-crypto-market part, and I also realize the market is not in the same state it was back in 2014, but still I don't think the possibility of a long term bullmarket ahead can be so easily wiped off. What's your take on it ?
PS : I don't know how this will be read so I feel more comfortable clarifying : I'm not trying to antagonize you, here ; I'm trying to have a discussion and would like to have your opinion - amongst others.
Thanks for reading.

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I see the triangle as symbolic, only the upper line is important here - I wanted to show people that Bitcoin is in a triangle, or that it can be seen that way - because most don't so far.
If you want a line that touches some more wicks and candles, take the dotted one... the yello just being a horizontal that more or less touches an earlier resistance level and the point where BTC (and most coins with it) bounced at the new low.
It was a decisive bounce. I know because I had been pressing thumbs that it would fall lower, and it didn't happen. Real support lines if you're wary of an imminent further dip, are way lower.
But I haven't looked for them here, I don't fear the dip, I've been waiting for it as long as Mike Novogratz ;)

The blue and green lines are coming from lows in July and November, each touches another low on its way and this is simply where they all meet or get close to meeting, which may or may not be significant, I see them as possible trend lines - I've watched too many tries to determine a trend on a shorter term these last weeks and I think their angles were all aiming way too high.

I've also compared earlier years and I'm aware of the similarities - we should understand that it' s us who are making the market, if we decide that it will be a three year bear market, then exactly that will happen. Posting on steemit will not influence much, but the people who take turns in telling us that "bitcoin may dip to $1000" or "governments will eventually ban cryptos" or "crypto is a bubble, and the bubble is popping" have much greater power but if they're doing this to get a better entry level, then that makes me rather more confident than less.
Because it means that they do NOT want a prolonged bear market at all from a certain point in time onwards.
Apart from that, FUD will only last so long, it didn't have a lot of influence last year and buyer confidence can make it all useless.

All we need is some success, and my guess is we'll see hat in altcoins first, Ripple is breaking out as we speak. It's now testing the upper triangle border for the seventh time within 90 minutes, at $1.35 - just saying. Looks like a must-buy, it can hardly fall much lower than 1.28 and the breakout is a must soon. Ripple often looks good when BTC doesn't but there's no way to be sure., so maybe it will fall to 0.90

I'm mostly interested in Bitcoin as a moodo-meter for the entire market, and though we have a better situation financially/market cap with institutions coming on, BTC has been under direct attack from the BCH miner faction and other parties, and if they get us to seeing this situation like the one in 2014, a wet dream will come true for them.

Curves or no curves, Elliott or Gann, the real game is marketing. Let's do our thing.
For most, that means screaming "market withdrawal!" on youtube or here once a few rates come down, or critique-less hype of an exocoin. The market of the many is not always a good market as it's entirely dominated by senseless herd animal stampedes.

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Should be interesting to see if this plays out jojo, thanks for commenting as always.

Hi Crypto Investor, totally unrelated to today's topic, but are you familiar with Cindicator? I'm curious if you have any thoughts on it. Here are mine if anyone is interested...

It seems like Cindicator is offering a decentralized prediction market service very similar to Augur, except Augur has double the market cap ($950 million vs $430 million, and it looks to me like Cindicator has substantially more user activity than Augur.

Whereas Cindicator decides what questions to ask its crowdsourced "analysts", Augur allows anyone to pay Augur tokens to ask the crowd a question. These are two different use cases with different implications, but the big takeaway for me is that I think, for the near-future, Cindicator's top-down control of their questions will allow them to have a much easier time gamifying their platform and keeping users engaged, while Augur will struggle to achieve a critical mass of users.

I think Cindicator has an interesting token benefit structure as well, where you only gain access to their data if you hold a large amount of their coins. Seems like a plausible way to create a virtuous feedback loop between speculators and token holders.

While I'm unsure of how accurate Cindicator's data will be long-term, regardless, crowdsourced market prediction data of this sort seems valuable, especially if you can identify analysts with unusually high prediction accuracy. That seems to be the direction they're going with it.

Anyway, sorry for sharing something off-topic. Just wanted to put it on your radar if you haven't looked into it yet. No reply needed. Thanks for reading!

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No, I haven't looked into Cindicator. How far is it into development? If it's not launched yet like Augur, there is yet another option out there which is even smaller - Gnosis. Of course, the reason why is because circulating supply is so much smaller than total supply, so Cindicator might still better.

It's probably better to have fewer questions like Cindicator seems to be doing (based on what you told me) than the scattershot approach Augur is taking where anyone can post them, given both will struggle with adoption. If you don't have a ton of users, the best you can do is concentrate them by having fewer prediction markets.

How is consensus reached on the outcome of an event? Same as Augur or differently? Anyway, maybe I'll look into it at some point. One point I want to say here is that all of these "prediction markets" are fancy gambling platforms, so can be good to look at other gam-ahem prediction markets that exist out there. Thanks for your comment.

First and foremost, I want to tell you I'm finally following your advice and I'm here, on steemit. I'm glad I've found your channel from the very first beginning of my crypto adventure and I was able to be more caucious and retained on my investments as you've always tried to see the other side of the fence.

Secondly, a lot of times these coins are being pumped by different whales or "Pump and dump" telegram groups or so. I've seen this trend going pretty stupidly spread with pumping and dumping coins, people get in there at the end of the pump and tend to lose a lot.

That's true there are a lot of duplicate coins which do not give any true value to the market and I'm really curious upon what we will be seeing in the future months, years. I want to thank you a lot for sharing your wise skepticism with us.

I had some doubts about your "visions" in the past when you were talking about ETH going 75000 satoshis right when it had a drop from 65000 to 55000 and I was already pretty nervous I've followed your advice ( after my personal research and a lot of thinking ), but you were found out to be more than right!

Although I'm still a newbie (~2 months in this world) I still learned a lot by myself and you helped me avoid a lot of mistakes that might have costed if I'd been making them my own.

One last thing I'd like to say, you should really check out Nebulas they want to build a search engine for the blockchain apps. Their main ideology is that in the future there will be a lot of blockchain applications and people won't be able to filter them. Also, Founder and co-founders are founders at Antshare(NEO). I would really appreciate your opinion upon this!

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My concern with a project like that is that it assumes there will be a lot of blockchain applications that are actually useful, which has been far and few in-between. The fewer there are, the less required it is given that everyone will just know the "good" ones by name. Haven't looked at it yet though so take my opinion with a grain of salt.

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Yes, well their project an idea is not projected to the "now" but to the future. Hitters XU makes some intersting comparasions in his presentation of Nebulas at Global Blockchain Summit in Shanghai from aug 2017.

He is comparing the internet 1.0 as the internet in 1997, internet 2.0 as internet in 2007 and internet 3.0 as internet in 2017 talking about the number of apps and users. He made an analogy between internet and blockchain considering Bitcoin - Blockchain 1.0, Ethereum (with the smart contracts ) - Blockchain 2.0 and Nebulas being the Blockchain 3.0 with the search engine.

Of course these comparasion might be exaggerated but I really believe in his vision.

A trillion dollar market will create a truly large value chain with relevant services
Hitters xu - Global Blockchain Summit in Shanghai

I haven't been in crypto long so take my opinion with a grain of salt but here's a theory I have personally. I think that big jump at the end of December has never been properly explained but for sure it 100% got attention and involvement by a large amount of people who prior didn't care or acknowledge crypto at all and it was at a mass that no one really could have anticipated.

I was one of those people but I feel sad that I came in at a time that a lot of people who have no interest in the technology and are just throwing in money then leaving quickly when things get hard because I am not one of those people. I love this whole community and the power that blockchain technology crypto and platforms like steemit have given to the little man so i'm here for the long run, to the moon or even if it crashes and burns I will remain interested.

I think what's happening now is potentially we are seeing the results of mass manipulation, scaring off all the weak handed newbies (which I think actually only makes up a small percentage of the marketcap) only for this all to pick back up again sometime soon or for it to all crash dramatically slowing down the hype and attention for a long time to come with a significantly long bear market.

What separates this from the incidents of the past regarding the price action of the market, is now there is a astronomically larger amount of money involved compared to then, far, far more and I truly believe far more manipulation at a higher more dramatic level for the good and bad alike for investors and businesses involved.

I do not think now is a good time to invest personally but I do think it is a great opportunity to observe, research and learn.

My gut feeling though is that even if 'the bubble pops' I see bitcoin not going below $5,000 in absolute worst case scenario and then we will see recovery over extended period of time.

Good points, people are constantly looking right now for the next rocket to the top 10 - 20.

Something like raiblocks I could see how it would be interesting in certain aspects because it seemed to grab the attention of the people who were tired of the BTC/BCH conflict (in my opinion).

The only thing that I can really say about Vechain (because it is outside my circle of competence) is that not everything needs a blockchain, just like not everything needs to be 3Dprinted. Something like this is probably where Vechain will get some most of the attention and a few years down the line(5-10) some company will actually implement it.

On a side note, what is stopping any company from taking the code from GitHub and using it internally, and testing and implementing it without actually using whatever the original crypto was?

"Thanks for taking out all the nasty bugs, we'll take it from here!"

With something like bitcoin, I see it not working because there is the risk no one will accept the new alt, but with something like Vechain tha is not as in need of general support?

(Not that any of that will actually mean anything while the bubble is still building).

In case you haven't noticed. Tether / Bitfinex have been mass printing USDT since last week to keep the price of Bitcoin up. They printed another 100 mil today and have injected at least 500 mil recently. The market is completely manipulated at this point and tainted since you can't cash out in USDT so they are buying BTC and whatever altcoins to cash out to USD instead. The price of ALL coins at this point is artificially inflated and the news about Tether / Bitfinex has been kept quiet as well censored in some cases so everyone doesn't all cash out at once and crash everything including the exchanges. You NEED to wake up and read up on the situation. There has been no audit for a long time now despite lying that they provide on a daily basis, Tether / Bitfinex are the same people which is perfect for wash trading and USDT is NOT backed by USD. So the question you need to ask is, what happens when they become insolvent because there is no actual backing of USDT, or there is a govt crackdown or whales realize the ponzi scheme and make their exits. It won't be just about who is holding USDT (those people will get screwed the most) but ALL coins have been bought with USDT at some point and are currently NOT worth the value they have been inflated to be. Imagine I magically printed 2.5B of my FunnyMoney coin saying it's backed by USD and used that to buy Bitcoin through an exchange that I own and then moved it around or used it to buy altcoins and eventually cash out to fiat through different exchanges. Everyone's portfolio is going to tank once people realize the wash trading going on and the other exchanges are going to halt withdrawls cause they won't be able to handle the influx of everyone trying to cash out their BTC or ETH or whatever to fiat. This article is a good starting point and then DYOR from there on: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@cryptoscopia/making-sense-of-the-tether-situation

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I'm not entirely sure what will happen and how USDT is really used right now. Although it's plausible that USDT is used to inflate prices, but I believe there is also an alternative.

It seems USDT is printed at times when BTC price goes down. It is possible that a lot of poeple want to exchange BTC or other cryptos back to USDT at time like these, hence the demand for USDT rises whenever BTC price is going down and new USDT is printed. I really hope it's this scenario and not the other one.

But I imagine that at some point the USDT scam will come to an end. There is just no scenario in the world there I believe that they have enough USD for each USDT and when that happens people holding USDT will lose a lot of money. I hope the extend of it will not have a big influence on the rest of the market, but if I had USDT I would try to get rid of it asap.

Bitcoin was the first and profited a lot from beeing the only fiat trading pair and entry for other crypto currencies, but now Ethereum has taken a fair share of that too and in the future there will be more fiat to crypto trading pairs, which will reduce the only real use case for Bitcoin. That's when I believe it will slowely start dying, the process might have started already.

I never believed that Bitcoin had any value at all and I'm still confident it will converge to zero over time. It will probably take 10+ years but at some point it will not make any sense to hold Bitcoin for anyone. It's absolutely horrible how much energy was wasted on this network already. It basically disappeared into thin air for nothing and could have been used to solve real world problems instead.

I know some of you believe in some ideologic fantasy that Bitcoin one day will replace financial institutions, but I don't undestand how this is even desirable. There is a balance between safety and anonymity. Replacing financial institutions gives more power and anonymity to the single individual, but it also opens up potential for crime under the cloack of anonymity. It is not a good solution and most likely will never become reality. So much on Bitcoin from my point of view.

The only crypto currency that really caught my attention last year was XRP. I know they have some unrealistic goals as well, but at least these make sense. And I really don't understand why people don't see longterm potential for XRP. There is a whole successful company behind it, whos goals are to increase the price, the adoption and value of XRP. And so are all the partners who have invested into it or received XRP. Why would this have less longterm potential compared to BTC, which does not even have a real use case right now and wastes tons of energy. Someone care to explain?

let me first say that i appreciate your articles and videos and that you are one of the few serious and professional people in the field.
something very strange is happening with bitcoin and some of the other markets. it seems there is much more control than I would like to believe.
what are your thoughts on the matter of present market manipulation?
thank you

Bitcoin is not doing much these days, hmmm I think we need the lightning tech. to kick in as good news to boost the price up :))...I dunno how some traders do it looking at a chart that doesn't move much but baby steps down...lol

source.gif

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love it lol!

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Well technically its falling down. That should be counted as doing something.

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downtrend but very risky to short it lol

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It's moving plenty still all things considered, just that it is moving in a range.

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Yaa, you right, will see where it goes after the 26th, the futures date :)

Oh, the cat came back the very next day... they thought he was a goner but the cat came back, he just wouldn't stay awaaaaaaay
Screenshot 2018-01-22 03.14.52.png

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Expert analysis! well done, sir.

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Excellent charting, could not have done better myself.

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what can I say... some things ya can't teach

What you said about Raiblocks in this video is in my view partially whats up with Ripple XRP, not that its a scam, or pump and dump, but its still riding media attention, hype and people arent giving up on it now, hoping and expecting it to run back from whereever it is now, up to $4, $5, or even higher.

I am not saying I expect that, but people do. At least those who are still jumping back on the XRP bandwagon.

I like XRP, but neither Ripple, nor XRP are where they want to be, and its gonna be a while before they are.

Whether its Raiblocks, XRP, Tron, or Vechain, the story is the same, some people are chasing the pump, and there is always someone who buys the top, and ends up bag holding.

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The problem with Ripple is their market cap is already so big. They also sold themselves as a "bank solution." Stellar is even better (better team, better logo, smaller market cap) and although inflationary, can easily replace XRP.

I put in the "better logo" part half-jokingly, but this is crypto and memes are a thing.

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Aren't Stellar and Ripple more like neighbors and not identical? As I understand it, Ripple is a B2B solution for the financial industry (banks) and Stellar is a P2P solution for cross boarder transfers. Each are going after completely different market segments...

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I hold a few Raiblocks after I sold out 90% at a nice profit. Biggest impediments are small (1-man) team and untested blockchain with likely security vulnerabilities.

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Perception is always quite different from reality. Ripple will likely execute better than most, but it is my opinion that they are targeting the wrong customers unfortunately - and I don't say that from a political stance, but rather business. We'll see what happens long-term though. You are right about people chasing pumps - Doug Polk just did a video on pump and dumps which was pretty informative as well as funny. Sad to see though.

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Isn't that the game though ?
Bitcoin offered a world wide market for indirectly investing in to blockhain start up's, to everyone, let that sink in. The risk is just the part of it, I hear 95% forex traders are bag holders :)

I'm right there with you on this pullback. I bought more Steem last week at $3.72. I would buy more only if I see it hit below $3 at this point. Once again, I feel comfortable with my allocation and just going to patiently wait and see what happens. Thanks for the post.

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I watch the Satoshi levels rather than USD personally, so Steem really hasn't been moving much since it came down to 30k Sats not too long ago where I did decide to pick some up.

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I'm thinking about taking another position as well. Let's see if the market peels back any further. I'll wait till it starts going back up before placing another buy order.

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This is why timing the market esspecially the crypto currency market is so hard, just when you think it can't go lower it can drop 20 points in a day. Waiting until it goes up it past your target over night.

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Haha. No doubt! That's why I'm not a trader! I'm looking for long term value and cash flow. That's why I like steem and steemit. You can actually create cash flow based on your account balance and engagement. This is a dream for getting allocated to crypto in a "safer" manner.

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Brett, what is your opinion on coins like Steem that require a quality level of user adoption to validate the price of the coin and make it valuable within the ecosystem? I have been looking at things like datum, flixxr, and bitclave. All require average people to adopt them. Like bitclave is a decentralized search engine where advertisers pay you instead of Google to show their ads to you. This seems awesome because Google currently makes all the money and I just get spammed, but for advertisers to take interest in bitclave it will need adoption.

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Interesting...I'm honestly not that familiar with too many coins. I like the idea of a search backed coin tho. I have checked out Presearch which is similar to what you described with users getting paid to search. I do believe that is the way of the future. The reason I'm most attracted steemit is because of the steemit community that's actively engaging and getting rewards in steem. I believe it will take a community to break crypto to the masses. Social & Crypto seems like a winner to me. I have to admit that social is my business and if I were in another industry, maybe I'd be attracted to different coins.

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I do some digital marketing so I guess I am biased to the space too. I want coins that have real usage. Also things like binance coin seem like safe bets. We know it gets used a lot. Maybe I just over react and get pissed off with every Facebook algorithm change but I wouldn't mind seeing their heavy handed control die to be replaced by decentralized social.

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Hahaha! Yes, Facebook is so powerful but there is a change in the air. They just changed the algo to lean back towards friends and family. They gonna need to change that algo to start paying people for engaging!!! Boom!!

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I agree with your assessment about Facebook and their algorithm, but the bigger beast is google. I have developed and managed my company's websites for 20 years and built a nice business based on organic search results. A few months back the big G changed their algorithm and our traffic fell by 50% or more. Time to move on from that game.

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I emailed the team at bitclave, a decentralized search engine, today to learn more about how they are going to protect advertisers from searchers gaming the system and just searching for things purely to benefit from advertisers paying to make them an offer, which is how bitclave works. You get paid as the user for a brand to have the privilege to market to you. A project to keep an eye on. A little early for me to invest since it has only been on exchanges for like a month. I tend to like waiting a few months to let the ICO hysteria die off and tank the price.

OH NO! I thought the dip was over :( :( :(

Question: Could you please give some tax tips? My main question is should I take advantage of the 'wash sale' loophole? (Sell for a loss, then immediately buy back in for tax purposes). I have a subscription with Coin Tracker software to keep record of my transactions, they do a decent job.

I have been watching your videos for a while, thanks for the content. I will have some more questions in the near future.

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Might do a video separately on this in the future given the demand for it.

Dear CryptoInvestor,

I finally got my Steem Account approved and great to be here chatting to all sorts of cryptocurrency enthusiasts.
I follow your YouTube videos with interest as it’s obvious to me anyway you are a stand up guy who gives his take on what’s going on. I too am waiting till BTC drops to around the 8k mark before making any moves. I’m reassured that you have the same feeling. I really like Steemit and will hold for a couple of weeks before investing a single Satoshi anywhere in this turbulent time.
Will write back soon. And hey everyone! Safe investing!

Peace ✌🏽

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Welcome to steemit, we need more youtubers promoting it like crypto investor does as there is only a few big content producers here but its growing :)

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Welcome to Steemit cryptodocosman, glad to have you here! Sorry for the wait to get approved, but now you get to comment whenever you like here. Hope you stick around for the future.

The petty electronic currency made crazy gains in 2017 and was the talk of media around the world
But it has started to decline since January and may continue until February 2018 during this period of time should be Bettokin bottom that will start to start again.
Currently, the default currency is trading in a secondary bearish direction in formation and as it broke the ascending trend line and finally the main trend remains bullish as it is unchanged
We conclude from the above that the electronic currency is suffering from weakness on the short term and it is expected that this situation will end in January to February as indicated above while the main trend is still bullish

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Thanks for commenting klas, should be interested in whether or not that plays out.

love your videos, i was investing on crypto for 1 month now, sadly i jump on a bad wave and i lost about 400 usd, but hey, i'm holding :)

i have a question (lame question)

as example:
i buy BTC when it was 16.000 usd and now it ist 10.000Usd, can i still trade btc to another altcoin now? or i will lose money if i trad'it below my purchase value ?

keep the good work

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Im was exactly in the same situation as you, bought at the December peak and saw 20% or around 400USD wiped. I pulled out a few days ago, because I couldnt take it :D

When I get more free funds Ill go back in tho

As for buying altcoins - you can, you wont loose money on that particular transaction - the exchange rate between coins is what it is. During tough times BTC or ETH tend to hold their value more though, so altcoins are insanely risky right now

Best of luck and HODL

I'm glad I pulled out my $1000 a few days ago before this drop.

Looking at the news, there seem to be only negative things. Now with "senior" analysts ditching BTC to $1000, things seem bad for the short term morale of investors.

I put my remaining investment into Ethereum as I felt that it has the best prospects from an innovation standpoint.

Do you think Ethereum is a good bet for 2018?

P.S. I was one of the fools to invest at the peak in December, now down 300eur :D Good thing it isnt a point in my life where thats a very big deal.

When I get some spare funds, I will invest in BTC, ETH, LTC for the long term though.

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December for me as well. The really painful part: I've owned BTC and LTC periodically for years (since 2011).
I don't know where my head has been for the past year, but it's safe to say we chose an odd time to buy into this market: Right on top of the first big wave.

Better than buying on top of the next big wave, but only if we don't get once bitten twice shy.

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I had hoped that we were part of a large bandwagon going in during Q1. Oh, how wrong I was

Hold in there - patience is a virtue

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Ethereum is good given the busy road map and the fact that Andreas will finish his book on it next month which might bring on some new developers (despite being available on Github). Only concern is that it is fairly high relative to Bitcoin right now compared to history, but otherwise like it.

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Indeed, I was looking at the ETH/BTC chart as well, there was a small spike in the second week of January, now during this rebound it is quite reluctant to match BTC growth. Only natural since thats the largest part of my portfolio :D

In all seriousness, thank you very much for taking the time to give a response, much appreciated. I shall remain a loyal follower, even though Im basically out of the market at this point

Happy trading!

At least EOS is doing well, all things considered. I'm really starting to have issues with Bitcoin's up and downs... Seemingly following the EMA12 as resistance on GDAX. I don't like the looks of this long term.

I don't think the world will forget about Cryptocurrencies and move on. More and more use cases are forming in it day by day.

I agree that wealth is going to transfer back into Bitcoin. I imagine to over 50 % dominance this year.
Reasons: Bitcoin scales while many altcoins fail to deliver on USPs.

Panic sales I think, it provides a cheap opportunity to buy. Steem at $4.15, it could be over $100 in a few years.

The Steem platform has a network effect, the more user it has the more valuable their cryptocurrency becomes.

The market behaves irrational, panic attacks. But some cryptocurrencies have long term value.

thanks for the tip on vechain. I will stay away from it. there are plenty of other opportunities out there. I found it good to be diversified in various crypto's, but am getting more careful in choosing which ones to buy. Will try to get into a strong 1 or 2 during the dip.

Since I joined in on crypto last August I have seen the bitcoin bull run $3k to +$19k and now in the middle. It is definitely trying to find a support level. If bitcoin continues to fall it will likely drag all alt-coins down.

We are still way above levels I remember from last August. Dash and ETH was around $300, NEO around $30, XMR around $80. I must say with what I see today if any of those coins drop back to the levels I listed there is no way people would not buy it then. I do not know if it can even drop back to those levels.

Hey @cryptoinvestor I have made a post about top 5 crypto youtubers that have influenced my path in cryptocurrency. I urge you to check this out.

Thank you for existing!

I totally also see that there is a trend to pair already existing tech with blockchain just to attract the attention. I personally have dealt with the slow adoption of rfid technology, i can see how people could lose interest on this sooner than later.

Vechain can be used to counter-counterfeiting. The Presidents(or some high executives) of Louis Vuitton and Prada have invested in the project themself.

However, i do agree with you that now is probably not the time to buy. Should have looked into it a few months ago and invested back then. Now it's just a gamble and not sure the risk/reward ratio is worth it.

What? You're saying all the kool kids are boarding the VEN train? I too want to lose my money buying the hype!

Always on time :) , thanks !!

Tho I didnt have a reply about madoff question on ur last video :/

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Would be hard to find it , inside all those comments , sucess story ;)

So I wanted to open a window about all that money and people involvded with closing eyes in Madoff invest.
I think that money/people are back on the cryptomarket

if my opinion is confused time in the market, and hesitate.

You should make a video on Japan and Russia introducing their own cryptocurrencies, what are your thoughts?

I'm actually looking to pick up a few more investments. However, I want to see the prices go down a bit more from this point.

I know Steem and Monero are a bit too high for you to purchase more. However, I would like to know what are your long term thoughts on Steem.

What do you think about the similarity in price movement of most of the top 100 coins. Doesn't that mean there is no diversification across tokens? Do you know anywhere I can use for fundamental analysis of crypto market?

last 6 monts were great for cryptoworld cause BTC hype was like a big free commercial campaign. But now when btc system is overloaded ppl are switching to altcoins and theyre killing btc at the same time.

PS - a bit dubious in my opinion to claim credit for predicting a coins trend when almost every new chart is trending in a similar pattern, lol

Neural Networks been invented decades ago, but the required computing resources were not available, and there was no any interesting data to work with. For years Neural Networks was known only to few dedicated researches. In the past five years Neural Networks have become widely adopted, and the number of applications build on Neural Networks (Deep Learning) is growing exponentially. There is still a lot of hype around it, and false statements are being thrown around by journalists, but, nonetheless, almost every car company is working on a of a self driving car that uses Deep Learning one way or another. Bitcoin didn’t necessarily invented anything fundamentally new, but it packaged known technologies into an amazing software. Sometimes the technology has to be re-invented multiple times before it receives the appreciation and adoption.

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It's not to dismiss the innovation, but rather point out that it's a lot less new than people think which has the very important consequence that we already know a lot of its weaknesses. People assume because cryptocurrencies are new, they are entirely untested and hence could be a remarkable solution, but in the end they are often a sum of some very old parts that have been tested for a long-time and we already know the limitations and could easily identify whether or not it will work before even trying.

I really appreciate your videos. They have some very good content. Even though I don't agree with your conclusions about price movement, I think your reasoning is excellent. Keep up the good work!

I'm thinking exchange coins are probably going to get traction this year, especially given all the drama around Bitfinex. Only problem is the front runners in that area have been pumped like crazy. Getting a big case of the FOMO's right now as only started getting into crypto investing this month. Just need to keep telling myself another crash is coming.

The impact of cryptography works a little different, the older it is the algorithm to secure the public key the better, you want it to prove itself that it's secure over time, you dont want something new that people didn't have time to try and crack it when it comes to security. Otherwise, great post as always. Thanks!

Glad to see you on steemit. I have been watching your vidoes on YouTube for a while now. I'm also a YouTuber (although I don't write about crypto). Anyway, I am brand new to steemit and was just excited to see you are on here too. I hope this space is as awesome as it sounds!

Toilet calls me but I think I can still hodl it.

How are you going to deal with Steem? It being an inflationary currency it would be bad to hold it long term, unless you convert it to Steem Power. Are you planning to use it as Steem Power or just short/medium term trade it?

Hey, loved the video. Could you make a video talking about Zclassic and the upcoming Bitcoin Private fork?

Thanks

Really like this video. I missed out on that last major dip so I just grabbed some of the main coins (BTC, ETH, and LTC) today so I'm happy about this dip, but you are right, you don't need to buy every time​ there is a dip. BTFD is just as silly as HODL.

Anyways, I came to say that I appreciate your posts, videos, and insight. I like your critical analysis and you shouldn't apologize​ for how you sound or what you say. I would rather follow a critical and cynical view who is wrong sometimes versus someone who shills and pumps coins and scams people out of their money.

Anyways keep up your awesome work. I spread your videos as the gospel to my friends who always think the coin of the week is the newest and best tech. I've played penny stocks for years and the sentiment is all the same. They will get burned while people who stick with BTC, ETH, and even LTC will be holding firm.

I think it's wise to keep in mind that bitcoin ran from roughly $8k to $20k very quickly and during what can only be described as a mania that was fueled by the media and its historic breach of $10k. The momentum was not sustainable and a pullback to $8k shouldn't be overly surprising. Hot markets often overshoot, pullback, consolidate, and then the technology, usability, and other value metrics catch up.

It's a tough market for sure right now. I think Bitcoin is getting close to done with it's downtrend. It has come off it's pumped/hyped price hikes of Nov/Dec '17 and approaching the trend line that was established in July/Aug/Sept timeframe. I believe it will bounce there and resume the more natural growth trajectory it was on prior to the unnatural holiday spike it experienced.

From there, Bitcoin could go on a bull run that leaves ALT's in the dust to bleed for a bit or the two could grow at a more natural acquisition pace where all expand together. However, if history's to repeat as it often does, we'll likely see ALT's bleed during Bitcoin's resumption to climbing in value and ALTs following when Bitcoin levels off.

Very nice analysis and observation about Vechain. It's hard to get an informed opinion these days about crypto. Keep it coming!

Indeed its just how people perceive it, mostly superficial how everybody chooses to invest especially ripple -(no need to apologize when you say it as it is).
People go after the hype. I will not deny that I may jump in to share in the profits, but I won't keep it.

However isn't it every beginning of the year that cryptos go down, as someone mentioned in the comments?
I can't say I am not that long observing cryptos.

good video!
I hope the market gets a nice bull run soon again, but most people are probably scared off for now.

Also your points about XRB are very valid, the momentum it had was crazy, of course there would be a correction, especially since it's still on small exchanges only (that were down for weeks, dragging the price down with them even more). Binance will come sometime soon, I'm eager to see what that'll do to the price.

Anyway, you mentioned you might make another video on XRB at some point, covering the technology (if I recall correctly), which would be really nice to see!
In my opinion the tech behind XRB is really great at solving the scalability problem, which long term is pretty important, and it's really fast, so I expect the least that it'll do is going to be a great tool for moving money between exchanges fast.

Probably a good coin to hold if you bought the dip, if anyone has points against that I'm all ears :)

I'd like to know your view on privacy coins like Monero and Zcash. I'm starting to think that there could be a "privacy store of value" like bitcoin but for the dark market. That would actually be one way to estimate the dark market capitalization. Along with it there would be a privacy currency that would serve as a mean of exchange and stay somewhat stable.

As for Steem, I've been also waiting for it to come down, but as more and more people realize how much value steem and steemit has over these overhyped shitcoins, the more interest it is going to get. Especially after these insane runs we've seen with Verge, Raiblocks, Tron etc.
People are going to realize that Steemit is currently one of the few real use cases in this industry, and people are already make a living out of it. Smart money is going to go to projects that actually work, and Steemit is the best example right now. I see a very bright future for Steem, so I'm not going to wait forever for it to come down :)

I said weeks ago in one of your posts that Jan 24-25 would almost certainly hit ~8k BTC price, but most people ignored this message at the time. Now as we approach these dates, and BTC continues to dip, this prediction is looking more and more likely.

Great video, yet I find it somewhat incomplete in that you concentrate on the RFID technology as the main handicap to VEN growth. I honestly feel the importance to explain to your listeners why VEN has been doing well during this down turn would then provide a benefit to all. I feel it would be important to mentioning the partnerships with the Chinese Government, Healthcare Co.Ltd, PWC, DNV GL, Kuehne Nagel, China Unicom, Fungwhang and other notables like; Renault, Louis V etc........

On another note as long as the futures are connected with BTC, I feel the next CBOE and CME expiration dates will cause this seesaw ride to continue. Choosing a large cap like LTC with no futures attached to it would be a safer bet....

Hold the door !
Hold the door !!
Hold the door !!!

Hello Cryptovestor and fellow steemians.

I really wonder is it reasonable to look at GDAX in these types of videos, excluding yourself from other exchange's, when talking about volume ?
What I mean to say is that it couldn't possibly be worse to look at the whole picture while analyzing the market and price action.

On a side note, like your train of thought and getting pretty good ideas from your videos, thank you for that.
Also if anyone knows how to overlay many coins on a single graph, would apreceate a link, I think I saw it in one of your videos.

Why do I feel like we will never get out of this slump? Great info! Thanks!!!

Another good video! But geez! Mr. poopoo on everything! LOL another good video, but once again I disagree with you! I think VeChain has the team to follow through, and they already have multiple partners coming to the table, including the Chinese govt. (somehow!) I think VeChain has a real chance to be a year end top 5 gainer for 2018, make it into the top 10, and implement the tech into multiple facets of industries, and continue to evolve very quickly...

When bitcoin price reaches a certain threshold, where it is unprofitable to mine, wouldn't no transactions be processed? i'm new to crypto, can anyone help to explain.

I guess I have been lucky because I had quite a few of these flavor of the month coins before they got hot and currently hold VeChain. I expect VeChain will be irrationally hot if we see the overall crypto market cap approach 600 billion again and then I will sell the majority of my VeChain. I got in on Tron early, and I still had some Tron after the market dip at the beginning of last week. For reasons no one can ascertain, it rose over 100% in 24 hours and I made a mad dash to sell. My point on these flavor of the month coins is that once it builds up irrational momentum, just sell and walk away even if you are a predominantly buy and hold investor. The valuation on 99% of these coins makes no sense so don't be greedy when the market gives you a gift. And also never buy into the meteoric spikes that make no sense. Those people get burned.

Cryptocurrency always recovers!

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Tell that to BitConnect :D

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Up until now? Yes. I can see a few of these cryptocurrencies going down in a couple of months/years. A change is coming.

When I switch to the logarithmic price axis, what I see is a trend line, and we are about to cross it, and take a walk to $8 000. If we will stay behind the red line for too long, it will be the confirmation, that the uptrend is broken. We should be very careful purchasing behind the red line.

red trend.png
Thaks for the updates, @cryptovestor!

opposite to your reaction, I am quite happy actually. I firmly believe btc will go down to 8k very soon and that's gonna be best and last golden opportunity to load btc up below 10k. Then end of year. I will see you around 60k per btc.

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What do you base this on? I am always confused when people say numbers like 50K, 100K, 1mil

That implies a valuation of upwards of a trillion USD - unless we see some mass adoption or proof of undeniable future success, why would the market value it that high?
At this point, seeing large countries like South Korea and India putting obstacles in the road - where would the mass adoption come from?

I'm glad I watched this video today since I was holding some Vechain. I hadn't even noticed it was up. I agree with this analysis on the tech and I'm divested. On a separate note I listened to a podcast with Vitalik Buterin and I'm feeling pretty high on Ethereum at the moment. Anybody heard the process of websites automating payments? I think it is where a website has enough logic to process it's own needs based upon traffic, purchases, advertising, etc. and will purchase additional capacity whether that be extra server space, change ad suppliers and other administrative processes and potentially interact with separate website. It almost sounds like the greedy little brother to Skynet...

I'm bearish like you.
I was wondering if your thoughts on Tether have changed? Do you think that if they are audited and it turns out to be a fraud, we could see the price of bitcoin drop to sub 5k levels?

In the case that your very specific buy target of 8300 is not reached, at what point would you change your mind?

Buy, HODL, Repeat!

Simple thoughts: What goes up must come down. I am very worried about the stability of the BTC price. With every Tether print comes a bump in BTC price; at least the last 4-5 that I have noticed; then it corrects back down.

Seems like the recipe for a huge correction is coming, I am pure cash now. I'll buy small amounts to ride a small bull-run but then cash out back to FIAT. I'm guessing 50% drop in BTC price by May.

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I'm actually shocked that people are completely oblivious to what's been happening with the Tether / Bitfinex situation. My guess is that it's been suppressed and censored so people aren't aware, therefore, don't all cash out at once and collapse the exchanges. They basically mass printed monopoly money pretending that it's backed by USD, used it to buy Bitcoin in their own exchange and then circulated the volume to keep the price of BTC from jumping off a cliff. Then they use BTC or ETH to cash out to fiat in an exchange that complies with AML / KYC regulations. So mass print monopoly money (USDT) -> BTC -> circulate it -> BTC or alt -> Exchange that can cash out to fiat. We are going to witness a crackdown & mass exodus at some point soon.

Hi Cryptovestor,

Do you have any thoughts on the real world use case for ParkGene that's in the midst of an ICO? Primarily it aims to be the Air BNB for real time available parking spaces worldwide using the GENE coin (which can also be used for other automotive services or coin trading).

I created an account at ParkGene but haven't bought in yet at 0.1 without further investigation and I like your take on crypto investing. What I like so far is the practical use of this project. Here's the referral link I was given on the sign up page that they ask users to push but like I said, I haven't even bought in yet myself.

https://tokensale.parkgene.io/?ref=e733829306ae4064d5131f96

Thanks

Could you consider some recent/update USDT video, especialy after last events?

With possible scenarios what could happen?

I think 8300 limit may be a little high. I'm also comfortable at this level and if it gets to 7700 I will buy another slice. There is a campaign going on in the news outlets to disgrace bitcoin and promote bcash. I personally think we will see a period when bitcoin loyalists get angry and it will increase the demand for bitcoin. I think they will begin to get angry when they see the sevens.

Just a thought . I am afraid of BTC/USDT bubble will pop these days.

Great videos as always. Great perspective too! The channel everybody should listen to.

I myself am a VEN holder, but not even remotely close to a VEN whale. I put a small amount of cash on it due to its intense public exposure, and I admit that I didn't do enough research on it. Your thoughts on it have made me more cautious towards VEN and I'll be watching it more carefuly now, as well as with other future coin purchases. I didn't follow the XRB hype mostly due to your opinions but also my gut feeling. You made some strong points about XRB and VEN, and those points I'll be considering in the diferent contexts of each possible coin purchase. I'd like to know your opinion on a coin that I've been eyeing and researching for a while that I'm still a bit hesitant on getting, NEO. What do you think about the project in itself and its long term capabilities?

How do you feel about PIVX? Yesterday it was one of only three green on the 24 hour coinmarketcap list and was +40% -!

@cryptovestor: Can you give some insight in to why there is such a huge disconnect between SBD and the actual STEEM token price? Steemit tends to be confusing since they basically have 3 different currencies, 2 of which (STEEM & SBD) are able to be traded on Steemit and other exchanges, while STEEM power is just a utility currency within the ecosystem.

On their own site they say SBD should be roughly equal to $1 worth of STEEM tokens, but in the last few weeks it has been 2x or even 3x the price of a whole STEEM. In theory if the price of STEEM is $5 you should need to pay 5 SBD for that token, but in reality 1 SBD buys you like 1.5 STEEM.

On that same note I also was under the impression that SBD was meant to be an internal utility token as well that only really has value on the Steemit platform, so why is it even being traded on outside exchanges? If these Korean exchanges weren't pumping SBD so much may they could do more internally to balance those prices out to make sure it makes sense.

Some good advice in there about avoiding the flavour of the week. I think if we zoom out we'll find that altcoins in general were the flavour of the year and that might pass in 2018 as bitcoin gets more sophisticated with second layer applications.

As a logistics expert, I have to agree with you about RFID, and the very slow uptake. In some ways the use case for RFID (which are more costly than the effective zero cost of barcodes) has not been strong enough for very widespread uptake. Blockchain in secure logistics chains has real appeal. WIll the combination of RFID and blockchain create a tipping point for RFID uptake? Maybe.. and the repurposing of older tech into new tech is where most innovation breaks thru'.

Hey, good insight and ideas again. Do you have twitter or a telegram channel where we can follow you? Thanks

Just a heads up that there is a impostor of you how "takes good care of the subscribers" and sends out these e-mails to join this "Crypto leverage" platform. Looks like just another a stupid scam but people will fall for it.

Crypto Investor.png

I'm very optimistic that BTC is gonna bounce and ethereum would rise up again to the 14k level. It's just a phase so hodling :)

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I don't think we'll see Ethereum at 14k just yet :P

Finally found you here on Steemit! You are one of my all time favorite no nonsense crypto sources. Thanks!

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Thank YOU for the kind words!

I was just wondering how much money I should have in USD, after a strong Bull Run. I currently have $14.000 in different cryptos, well-diversified. I was thinking about taking out about 15% it hits $20.000, so I'm always ready to snatch good prices, but at the same time just mostly holding.

Any opinions?

Also, @cryptovestor, it would be greatly appreciated if you could just tell us which coins you have in your portfolio. Not how much in total or how many % in each - just to know if you're in the same department of coins as me.

First: well done, I am following now on steemit. And I bought some ;-) Don't laugh: 4.3 The chance to get into something new with such little money is something I really like in crypto. Checking the website, buy some, start with a wallet, check how to transfer and about the fees, I love this, really. And if I am comfortable with, I spend more time to check the site, dev team and so on.

For now, again a Great video. I fully agree with, I was checking Vechain 2 or 3 weeks ago and made the desicion not to buy because of the information I could find and I was understanding.
To hear something similar from you makes me a little bit happy as you can imagine.
About Bitcoin price, I couldn't wait for going more deeper as 8,000. Euro;-) so I bought second time after my first time in October.

One of the issues with RFID is the cost of the chips. I worked for a business that looked at using RFID tags for tracking inventory, the average cost for a passive tag was around $1.20 CAD ~ $1 USD. It didn't make a lot of sense to use them for $25-35 products so they went with barcodes instead, but for the application that VeChain is trying to break into - luxury goods and products - it makes fiscal sense

I would like to ask some advice I'm trading the past 6 months based on Tech and speculation I've got some tech background but too little too non Financial education I would like to expand my knowledge on finance to help me become a better investor and Trader I picked up the intelligent investor as a first attempt to learn a thing or two if you have any book recommendations online courses or anything in general. It will help me more I would gladly appreciate it

I think BTC will come down to 9k around then going forward , it was too fast 20k, i thought this year 2018 going to 10k , see now pulling back ,if pull back to 8k really healthy pull back then i will buy more.

keep the harsh judgments, don't need another shill fest

Hello and thanks for your content. Really enjoyed it on YouTube and meant to come here already a Long Time ago. Keep up the good work and please start shilling more so we have more points to argue about instead of just being a voice of reason... Cheers!

I am absolutely in the 'wait and see' camp. I've moved everything into my hardware wallet and am basically not going to worry about crypto at all until I see articles from both you and @pawsdog suggesting we might be looking at a bull market again.

Thanks again for being sensible and sticking to your guns when it would obviously be easier and more profitable to tell the people what they want to hear.

Hy Crypto Investor. A while ago I discowered your channel and since then im not missing a single video. I would realy like to hear your opinion on SolarCoin (SLR). I think its a very interesting coin. Greetings from Switzerland.

VeChain analysis is really short sighted.. It has gotten a lot of media attention, partnerships and great upcomming events. That´s why price has gone up.

Also the RFID chip thing.. we life in a totally different and more techy world now a days as to your comparison with he past. There is a need for more transparency in the business sector and the general public will like this project aswell.

Your thoughts are getting based on guesses, no real in depth analysis on it. I personally think your video´s are below standards for the amount influence you have at this moment.

Nontheless, I hope to see some better content in the near future.

Great insight about the market and plan for accumulating btc! How much of a factor do you think the China/Korea FUD and the Chinese New year is playing into the recent bear moves?

I joined Steemit and have purchased crypto partially due to your helpful and fair minded analysis. Keep up the critical thinking. Some may disparage it, but do not worry about them. I listen to your analylsis because you do so without emotion. Well, maybe a little well deserved anger at Bitconnect. But that is fair enough. Thanks again!