What to expect for BTC: Scenario 1

I know there is a lot of confusion right now - what is happening? Which bitcoin is bitcoin? Lets take a look at a few scenarios so we can be prepared.

The bear scenario would be that we are seeing the beginning of the bear market, and the end of this incredible run up Bitcoin has made since January. This would not be out of the question as the bull run was pretty phenomenal, and it had to end eventually - even if bitcoin is the future, it will still be subject to the same bull/bear cycles that all assets are.

How will we know?

The definition of a down trend is when we make lower highs and lower lows. Watch this bounce carefully - if we make a lower high, I would certainly consider taking profit. Be on the lookout for what I call the "second chance" peak, aka the dead cat bounce. I drew that scenario in the photo below, and you can see how it looked in 2013 when bitcoin run up #1 ended. (btw - you can see this pattern everywhere in crypto)

Let me know if you want to see more scenarios/updates like this!