Crypto Chart Update: Bitcoin off as USD comes back, Ether's shortcomings and Steem not so stunning.
Usually don't post charts on the weekend, but a lot of coins lost ground overnight and this definitely warrants an update. Last night was Non Farm Payrolls (US jobs report) and a strong print pushed the US dollar higher, damaging Bitcoin and other crypto-coins.
EURUSD is the highest volume forex pair in the world and makes up the vast majority of the DXY Dollar Index. As you can see from the following chart, the US Dollar has been on the back foot against the the Euro for sometime:
Though we all like to think of crypto-coins running on their own strength alone, the fact is, USD weakness since late December has also been a contributing factor to crypto strength. It's no coincidence that ETHUSD's amazing rally coincides near perfectly with the EURUSD recovery. Now IMO the EURUSD chart above doesn't look clear cut bearish yet, but I really can't rule out the possibility of a top. If EURUSD does reverse course ie the US dollar makes a comeback, Crypto assets priced in USD are guaranteed to have a tough time finding support and may even begin to trend down.
What's interesting about crypto markets, is when Bitcoin is getting hit, other coins can take a bigger hit. Outside Australia (and to some extent here) the quickest way to go into cash from Crypto is to sell your alts for Bitcoin and sell your Bitcoin for fiat. This is because the Bitcoin/fiat markets tend to be more advanced, or in the case of most Alts, actually exist. Along with people looking at Bitcoin as a proxy for overall crypto-market health, I think the above phenomena is a big driver when it comes to relative alt-coin weakness.
Anyway here's an update of the crypto charts we've been looking at. At this stage I'm not too worried about the USD making a comeback - anyone who's been bullish USD through this FED hiking cycle, knows all to well that rallies disappointed time and time again.
Here's BTCUSD:
I noted this pair was struggling with 2600 in yesterday's post and it has indeed turned lower from there. On the other hand, though we now have a series of lower swing highs, we still have intact higher lows. This pair is once again consolidating. Another issue we have at the moment is the impending August 1 SegWit implementation - I think we will all come out of this fine - though it's not too hard to imagine people waiting out big investments and players already in the market reducing long exposure. I remain bullish this pair as long as we are closing above 2300, and I am neutral below there rather that bearish - can't rule out a flat correction into 2000 preceding an eventual recovery.
Here's ETHUSD - I said it was looking a little better yesterday, though I also said longs weren't valid til the wedge top breaks - this is why:
Picking bottoms, just like picking tops, is a mug's game. Usually you're right if it weren't for that one last thrust lower/higher that takes you out. The pro's wait for confirmation, or at the very least scale in. Pair is at trend-line support now, though a move into 200 is just as likely as a rally from here. The Ethereum's network's high profile short comings over the past few weeks have not done it any good and EOS could well steal it's shine.
Now let's take a look at Steem against Bitcoin - this is the one I'm most unhappy with - as I said yesterday, the technical picture looked stunning ...
... Now, not so much. The channel floor has been breached and pair is currently testing below, though there has not been any significant follow through. I bought more with AUD at the channel floor last night and I am holding indefinitely. What I'd really like to see here is a false break: despite having all the ingredients for a decline, the pair recovers and regains the channel floor. Either way, I'm holding my Steem til the day the zombies come and I imagine many of you Steemians are thinking the same. Markets are all about confidence, as long as the vast majority of Steem holders are confident and committed to the HODLOR - there's only so low it can go.
That's all for me, will be back back Monday with another update, or again tomorrow if there's any major developments.
Team Aus footer by the amazing @bearone
I like when steem goes down, More time to buy, its like we are selling anytime soon anyways :)
That's the way mate!
Some serious efforts you put in there. Nice post. Let's hope the usd falls again and the bloody days end at some point. Especially for guys that came just into the market, like me, it it very... Not funny
Looking like a small hiccup at the moment XD
Well said. I too chose to power up a little extra bitcoin I had lying around. Let's hope it finds that channel again. Although if it does not, I will surely keep buying.
That's the way, I honestly see Steem up around the $50 mark eventually and someone posted a conservative estimate of ~10 in one of my other posts ... I'd be stoked with that. Seemed like wishful thinking at time of writing, except we are back inside the channel. I will adjust channel gradient and measured target accordingly in my next update :)
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Me too - though I wish I had enough to hold both bitcoin and steem..
This is what I find frustrating about crypto - opportunities everywhere. I want mining gear, I want Bitcoin, I want Steem, I want EOS, I want Antshares, I want Status ... but can't have it all (well not in any worthwhile size anyway!).
I hear you!
Dedication to post on a weekend, that's what we like to see :)
Interesting as not many people think about the impact of fiat trading pairs when it comes to cryptocurrency but, thinking about it, they definitely should. Probably even more relevant these days with crypto becoming more mainstream every day.
I'm not keen on the USD/ETH chart though at the moment, although I may jump in there around 225 depending upon what it looks like.
XRP looking a good price at the moment too, but I think it could get dragged down further.
What's your view on the thought that the ETH price is being impacted by the plethora of ICOs at the moment? I haven't seen any evidence of this, but it's a view I've read on several occaions now.
Thanks Zebedee, at end of the day crypto's own strengths and weakness are the primary driver (ETHUSD is up 3000% + since Dec, EURUSD is only up 10%), but movements in quote currencies definitely have an effect ... very hard to quantify the magnitude though.
Re: ETH ICO's I think that was definitely a big driver behind the rally, likely the primary driver. Just like recent weakness is almost certainly a product of the high profile ICO fails.
I haven't checked out XRP, will have to take a look.
Im a little worried about BTC/USD,but im sure we all going to smile real soon :)....steem im definitely gonna hold until the zombies come haha.Thank you for sharing mate
That's the way mate, not a problem. BTCUSD managed an up day yesterday and is looking a lot better on the lower time frames. A little worried about potential for a split, but think we'll be sweet.
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