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RE: The fall of Cryptocurrency 2017: reasons and forecasts for July-August
How do you calculate your probabilities?
You give here some random probabilities and newcomers may belief you. You only analyzed the past trends, how can you give probabilities for the future?
Forecasts for the future I do on the technical analysis of the charts - I calculate the size of the steps, I constantly observe the capitalization of the support and resistance levels. I trade on the stock exchange for more than 3 years. The full article on the site was written on 11.07 and published on 12.07. You can track my subjective opinion with the market indicators. Estesstvenno, that everything does not happen immediately.
I still don't understand: How can you give probabilities by only analyzing the past? So you can say IF the market behaves as in the past then the probability based on statistics is this and this, but you cannot say just the probability for A is x. This is a big difference because we dont know if the market behaves as in the past!
The analysis is carried out by many traders, who, just like me, place pending orders in a certain place - this is how support is created. Resistance is created at the level of sufficient profitability of orders. All approximately. And the price at any time can behave absolutely not how it was supposed - but then it is more an exception, which could not appear without a reason.
In April, I calculated the rate of LTC to $ 50, although it was believed very little. There are no regulators in the market, but there is a crowd and whales - which can significantly shift the market. And there is one big faith of people that the main coins will grow globally. It's enough.
There is an article for March - there I make a forecast for April. You can compare the dash and the air - how they got up in April and bitkoin with small steps came out of the trade. Started up coins only in May.
https://bisnestrend.ru/index.php/internet-novosti/180-kurs-bitkoina-btc-dash-ethereum-eth-analitika-i-prognozy-mart-aprel-2017