๐โซ๐โซ๐โซ๐TURN UP THE VOLUME!
I have been working on a post for the last three days. This is not that post.
As my wife often laments, I am the king of getting distracted. The post I speak of above will have to wait at least another day longer, because today I want to talk about volume! It's important.
By Oliver Henze ; From https://www.flickr.com/photos/gruenewiese/8580966812/in/photostream/ ; shared under the CC BY-ND 2.0 license
๐โซ๐โซ๐โซ๐TURN UP THE VOLUME!
There is not a lot to say here, so pay close attention, I promise not to ramble on too much.
TA is all good and well
I've told you that I use TA, though I seldom publish it here. I prefer Fundamental Analysis, better to discuss and more holistic in approach. I also frequently criticise those who practise what I consider to be poor TA. I have so many posts about that that I'm not even going to post links now...
Of the myriad TA tools and patterns, some are more reliable than others. The thing common to nearly all the TA you see on blogs like this is that it is always performed on price charts. Take a quick look at other blogs. I'm right.
Having a very broad view of the crypto world and how it integrates into geopolitics, I prefer to be less conventional. I have used one or two alternate charts on this blog. In this post I performed a little TA on a NEO market dominance chart. In this and this posts I did the same thing for BTC (and altcoins).
There is value to be found in using charts other than price when doing TA. (Without overdoing it please!)
The single most important TA tool
The most important TA tool at your disposal does not even appear on a regular price chart. Often it lies just beneath it. And gets ignored. I am, of course, talking about volume.
It's not strictly true than vloume gets ignored per se, but I don't believe that it receives the attention it deserves. I would like to see volume feature just as prominently as Fib levels, Elliott Waves and Head-and-Shoulders patterns.
I hereby go on record as saying: "There is no more reliable indicator of future price movement than volume".
Why am I saying this today? Why am I interrupting three days of post writing on a completely different topic to post about volume?
Because of this:
Total crypto market cap:
From https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
BTC :
From https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
The volume is still increasing!
Despite the price now having flattened out for the past few hours, I'll bet my bottom Bitcoin that the increase in volume means the price will soon continue to rally even higher. Let's see how much this narcissist called Bit Brain really knows...
I won't hide the fact that this makes me really happy. I'm tired of the bear/flat market now, though I will endure it longer if I must. From an FA perspective, good news (like some of the news that I briefly mentioned in yesterday's post) continues to pour in. I believe that we're on track to pass the 3 day mark in this climb and continue going. I'm definitely not calling this the start of the big bull run yet, at this stage I still consider another dip to "just over $6000ish" BTC to be likely, but it I'm also not saying that it's not the start of a bull run. (I sound like a ****** politician!) Once the crypto market picks up momentum, there's no telling what it's capable of!
And on that positive note I'm going to end this post, before I get accused of rambling on or getting distracted again. ๐
Yours in volume gaining crypto,
Bit Brain
Published on
by Bit Brain
I'm on the fence (again) whether it's the end of the bear market or not. But then again, that is what the market does. It makes you think we're starting the next bull run, then you FOMO in and then you get destroyed..
Sometimes I'm so glad I'm already in the market. I'm not selling anyway, so I don't really care what happens in the short term.
I really like that saying: "Time in the market, rather than timing the market".
Whenever people want the perfect time to buy, I just tell them to get in and stop waiting for the perfect opportunity or you might risk missing the train entirely.
Still... kind of hoping for that $4K Bitcoin. Would be very healthy, and also I get to buy more (below $5K is my buy-in-again point).
You don't want to know what I think of your $4k Bitcoin idea! ๐
I'm also happy that I am done buying, having finished most of my crypto buying last year. I bought the dips this year, but the buys were relatively small. I'm out of disposable income now, so what's in now is all that's going in.
The stress now comes from guessing which alt to trade for which other alt and when to do so.
As I watch BTC, I notice that this is increasingly starting to look like the beginning of previous bull runs. Nothing specific, just the general price movements, the BTC dominance, the general market sentiment. Obviously it's still too early to say. Are you seeing/feeling this too?
Yes I have the same feeling. There's something in the air, on every front.
But I remain skeptical.. this is what FOMO always feels like.... this market is treacherous. Sentiment could change in a heartbeat again.
DCA is the answer, I guess?
It may also be that the volume increased due to an increase of selling offers :)
By the way, great analysis. I always follow your posts with interest.
Thank you very much.
Volume is influenced by offers, by at the end of the day it is the amount actually traded. Had it been predominantly selling that increased the volume, then it would have been accompanied by a drop in price.
Great post! I do believe in TA especially given how inefficient the cryptocurrencies are due to the lack of valuation techniques that can be used to support or forecast future cash flow and thus value. However, I agree that volume needs to be present to confirm trends and changes in those trends. Also, fundamentals are very likely to be catalysts to these volume moves.
Yes. Ideally you should combine it all.
Uh oh... Looks like I may have jinxed the volume. The second I post it starts dropping. Typical!