Ready for a pullback?
I am seeing the signs of a possible imminent pullback
The market appears to have flattened out and moved into a short contraction phase.
Ready for a pullback?
I would like to highlight that I am not sure of this, but I consider it to be the stronger of two major possibilities.
Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;
~Robert Frost - The Road Not Taken
The market is probably about to do one of two things:
Option 1 - Pullback - Bit Brain confidence level: 65%
Modified by @bitbrain from https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
We appear to be in a pattern similar to the one we were in from early August to mid-September 2017. This means that the market would pull back for roughly the next two weeks. A pullback, not a crash. After that it would resume its climb, probably at a slightly increased rate after consolidating. The market would follow something similar to the line I have extended in the drawing above.
Option 2 - Business as usual - Bit Brain confidence level: 30%
Modified by @bitbrain from https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
The other major option would be for the market to resume its upwards climb as projected in the image above.
Conclusion
I definitely consider Option 1 to be the most probable. I also prefer this option. A small dip to consolidate is always healthy in a climb, it prevents the bulls from getting out of hand and driving prices up too fast. It stands us in good stead in the long-run.
The missing 5% (you did spot that right?😉) is for some other random trick that crypto tends to pull on us from time to time!
Yours in crypto,
Bit Brain
DISCLAIMER:
I am neither a financial advisor nor a professional trader/investor. This is not financial advice, investment advice or trading advice. Unless otherwise stated, all my posts are my opinion and nothing more. Crypto is highly volatile and you can easily lose everything in crypto. You invest at your own risk! Information I post may be erroneous or construed as being misleading. I will not be held responsible for anything which is incorrect, missing, out-of-date or fabricated. Any information you use is done so at your own risk. Always Do Your Own Research (DYOR) and realise that you and you alone are responsible for your crypto portfolio and whatever happens to it.
You should be more 'zen' about it. The price could go up, it could go down, it could go sideways. As long as you take the right action at the right time then it's winner winner chicken dinner, Lambos for breakfast !
Anticipate, react. Anticipate, react. Breathe in, breathe out :-)
Serious though, have you ever considered trading derivatives so you can also make money when the price falls ? Maybe something to consider, double your options of being profitable. You must be able to work out which coins are going to fall as well as which ones are going to rise, it's the same thing.
It's worth considering. I don't have the time to trade full time (or the skill set - at least not without further study). That will have changed by the end of the year. Thanks - I will consider looking into that.
Doesn't have to be any different to what you do now. I trade short term because I trade on margin, with huge leverage. That's why I can't hold a position for too long or let a position go too far the wrong way.
But you don't have to use leverage at all, and just trade 1:1 like you do now, but with the exception that you can short as well as go long.
My longest short trade was about 15 months for example, during the last recession when I shorted the London Stock Exchange. That was with a lot of leverage as well, but it was a unique opportunity.
So YOU helped crash the LSE! tut tut. Naughty naughty! :D
Okay, I see what you mean. I just can't see myself avoiding a learning curve that I really don't have time for yet (I wouldn't want to try it half-cocked). I would also need to find some sort of suitable trading platform, though I suspect that my bank may be able to assist there.
Well...technically I helped them... Because I shorted them, that means my broker had to hedge my trade and go long in them, which should have pushed the price up... lol
Actually it was a good learning experience. Next time there's a recession, short the stock exchange itself, don't bother with individual banks. Next crash due around 2020-2021.
Not a bad idea. I don't follow the exchanges, but I do glance at their charts now and then. Your timeline for a crash sounds realistic. Better get into crypto quick! 😉 Come to the dark side, we don't even need brokers here...
When it comes, and people are losing their houses and can't afford to feed their children, which do you think of the luxury investments are going to be liquidated first ? ;-)
Some things are recession proof, like gambling and entertainment. Gambling is an obvious one, but people spend more money on entertainment during recessions than at any other time, for the 'pick me up'. Crypto though ? who knows, time will tell.
I suppose that the "when" is the (literal) million dollar question. Depending on its state of adoption at the time, crypto could either be the obvious solution in such a crash, or the "luxury" to give up.
For now it is still deep in luxury territory. The indicator will be how closely crypto remains linked to traditional financial assets and indicators. The more divorced crypto becomes from the performance of things like USD or the Dow Jones, the better.
Sounds like a sniper preparing a kill shot!