I'm back

Large as life and twice as ugly. The Brain household is adapting to life without one of its most precious members, but things are starting to function again and I need to get back to my (sorely missed) blogging.

To kick things off again, I thought that I should begin with my favourite crypto: NEO. I remind you that it's my favourite crypto because it is the best crypto. Doubt me at your own peril.

Bit Brainians will know that another favourite of mine is pattern recognition. Today I will combine NEO and pattern recognition (and a few other things, because crypto is never as straightforward as 1 + 1 = 2). The end result will be a NEO price movement prediction.

Modified by Bit Brain. Sourced from pixabay.com/en/milky-way-moon-lamborghini-1829019/ and neo.org/logo

NEO MOON LAMBO?

I've been itching to write this post for a week or so already.

Patterns

Like many cryptos, NEO has a pattern. The NEO pattern has repeated three times. Strictly speaking, you could find even more iterations of it by digging back into NEO's Antshares days (especially November 2016 to March 2017), but one must be somewhat cautious not to read too much into the highly erratic early data of a freshly launched ICO.

Take a look at the more recent and well defined NEO patterns:

Time 1: June to August 2017
Three main peaks and three main troughs:

And after the third main trough: Lambomoon

The pattern then repeated from August to December 2017:

...with the same sort of Moonlambo (like a Lambomoon, but used in the Southern Hemisphere 😉) directly thereafter:

Which of course brings us to the current pattern:

Please, compare it to the chart two charts up. Closer examination will reveal other more detailed similarities, especially between the current cycle and the preceding one.

Anyone care to guess what I think may well happen to the price of NEO next?

We need a little more than just patterns

So yes, in summary I am expecting a NEO LAMBO MOON soon.

But:

The patterns themselves are a good indication of possible future behaviour. But that's just it, the key word is "possible". Based only on what we have just seen above, I would place the "possibility" of another pattern repeat at only around 35%.

Let's look just a little bit broader and see what else is happening

A rough breakdown of major similarities between the patterns repeated as described above:

Fibonacci levels (which are also open to interpretation and are dependant on scaling)

I am satisfied, especially when looking at the previous charts, that NEO has come close enough to the 0.000 line to have made a successful turn around and to have started heading upwards again.

A key indicator for me as to whether I am right or not, is if NEO again does the little sideways movement at approximately 0.0046 BTC, which corresponds with the Fib level of 0.236

I would then expect similar "stutters" as the price climbs back up to what may well be new ATH levels (vs BTC). The arrow below indicates what I consider to be a realistic possible path.

Fundamentally speaking

These are all BTC charts. They are obviously different to USD ones. NEO was unfortunate enough to have the drops in its cycle coincide with the crypto bear market where everything lost to USD. Of course most altcoins dropped vs BTC as altcoins tend to do in a bear market, but NEO probably came off especially badly because of this coincidence.

In a pleasant twist of fate, it looks as if the opposite may be about to happen. I am not going to go into a general market analysis again, because I have already written posts in that regard that still hold true. The only crypto post that I did write since mid August until now dealt with this.
You can find it here: https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrency/@bitbrain/a-quick-hello
Or read this more detailed post that's about a week older here: https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrency/@bitbrain/btc-long-term-pattern-repetition

And yes, that chart I published on 24 June is still doing a very good job of predicting the present, no applause is required.

What this really means, and the reason that I mention it, is because I think crypto as a whole is about to go bullish, while NEO goes bullish vs BTC. The combination of NEO rising against BTC while BTC rises against fiat can mean only one thing:

Lambo

Moon

On top of that, NEX has finally got around to launching its ICO (only five months late...). NEX is big news and I expect it to be an excellent (NEO based) DEX with great crypto community interest and support. It is entirely possible that this may act as the catalyst to get the NEO bull market rolling again.

On NEX:

I published a post about the NEX ICO lottery half a year ago: https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrency/@bitbrain/the-nex-lottery . It is very sad that the ICO took so long to get going, particularly because of the cost of buying into the ICO. Investors who were lucky enough to win the participation lottery have no doubt found their luck to be somewhat soured by the drop in NEO price in the meantime. To add insult to injury, NEX have now pegged the value of NEO at $18.54 (basd on a 10 day SMA ending 31 August), a slap in the face to people who now hold NEO currently worth $23 at time of writing and climbing fast. When you realise that the NEO price in April was between $45 and $96 you will see just how annoyed some investors must be. I see them seething on various social media platforms. Imagine buying $1000 worth of NEO (the maximum that lottery winners can invest in Round 1) back in April for an imminent ICO that only finally arrives in September, despite always being "just around the corner". Bad move City of Zion, very unimpressive and disappointing! 😠 I do understand the limitations that they are working under, especially as a registered security (well done to them for that), but the NEO community is a honest and caring one and I don't like to see my fellow NEO friends messing one another around. I implore CoZ to find a fair way to compensate investors. It would not be fair for CoZ to sit on a massive NEO bag that they have grabbed from investors by pegging the NEO price at the annual low-point; that's not what the crypto world and decentralisation is all about! Of course the NEO price could always drop lower, but I really doubt that (as the rest of this post indicates). Right now NEX investors are having serious ROI concerns, especially if NEO itself is about to fly up in price!

From neonexchange.org (captured 31 March 2018) not exactly what happened in the end...

Final word

CoZ doubts aside (and they generally are a really decent bunch of guys and girls, I hope they will do the right thing), I see NEO going places soon. Realise that crypto is notoriously hard to call accurately, I bought my most recent NEO dip a few months back already, just to avoid missing out when it takes off but considering what I have said and shown above, I think there is about a 65%+ chance that NEO will follow something similar to the path that I predicted in this post. We shall see.

Yours in crypto,
Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

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Published on

by Bit Brain

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