BTC price movement - Short-term
I have to type fast. By the time that I've finished this post, the event to which I refer may already have transpired! It's happened to me before.
BTC is in a both a short-term and medium-term converging triangle. What is does next is what I am now concerned with.
The last few days have been rather a massacre in the crypto world. BTC has bled and alts have been brutally murdered. But is it over, or is there yet more to come? Let's take a look.
Made by Bit Brain with TradingView
Got to love my non-standard use of the Elliott Wave tool
BTC price movement - Short-term
The current up-down wave seems to have completed. We had the bottom sideways period, the price increase, the top sideways period, the price decrease, and now it appears as if we have reached the bottom sideways period once again.
BTC bottomed out just below $6000. I am happy with that figure as it is in my target zone for the bottom of this wave. I was expecting about $5850, with $5750 as a worst case scenario, but that is close enough.
The big question now is: "Has BTC finished dropping?"
The alternative is that this is just a temporary plateau from which BTC will drop again. There is room for it to drop again, but to me the chart looks as if it may be settling.
It is interesting to note that a very similar pattern has already occurred during this latest bearish period - see the chart below:
Made by Bit Brain with TradingView
We are right at the end of that pattern - which is why I am typing this post faster than ever before!
The alternatives I see are as laid out above:
We hit the bottom and will now continue sideways for the next week or two. After that the price will probably rise, perhaps for one more wvae like we have just had, perhaps for the beginning of the bull run proper.
We hit support but will revisit it and break through to $5750-$5850 levels (estimates based on previous performance this year). It will then go sideways for a week or two before rising.
The Bit Brain percentage allocation is as follows:
*65% probability of Scenario 1,
*30% probability of Scenario 2,
*5% probability of something unforeseen.
We are on track in term of my 2018 BTC prediction: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@bitbrain/the-bear-is-over-at-least-for-now
I think there is a good chance that we hit the bottom just below $6k. We might revisit that (and perhaps a few dollars below it) a few times during this sideways period if I am indeed right about this being a "Scenario 1". The fact that volume has stabilised is a big factor in my reasoning. It's going to be a tense couple of weeks.
There is some really exciting news happening in Turkey that I would love to talk about, but time being a problem, I will have to hold that over to tomorrow. We can look at a slightly longer term view then.
Yours in crypto,
Bit Brain
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Interesting, you're still bullish and/or sure that we've bottomed out already, despite the failed rally and subsequent drop back to where we are now?
Perspective I suppose. I never saw a failed rally, I'm still waiting for the rally. I also fully anticipated the drop to current levels. I see it as part of the logical transformation from bear to bull - typical of such a sideways period.
For crypto to drop below its 2018 ATLs would be against all reason for a technology in the early phases of rapid adoption. Stranger things have happened, but a further fundamental decline in price is completely contrary to logic.
The problem with taking the more upside position from here is that if we follow the size of the waves since we crashed from 20k btc, each wave is smaller. If this is the turnaround point, I wouldn't expect the wave to be bigger than the one we just had, meaning upside is minimal. Only a news event would restart the market, but even halfway decent news events don't seem to work these days.
So to me, it's either down more, or sideways as we have been going. Just with less meat on the bone for sideways movement.
An interesting perspective, I'll counter with this one.
There has been more than enough positive news this year, if fact we're sitting on a veritable gold mine of "unused" good news. The market hasn't reacted to it because the market is still afraid in the wake of the bearish start to the year.
We don't really need any good news to get the bulls running, all we need is for traders to start trading again, and they will do that when they start to forget about the bear market. I am still very bullish for the remaining half of this year, especially the final quarter. but for the next month or so I would expect more sideways action - even if that comes in the form of a climb, followed by a dip back to this level.
i upvote your post please upvote me back