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RE: Quora Corner -- Crypto in a Global Recession?
I don't think that people use crypto as a "safe-haven", at least not for now. Maybe when it will be more established in a couple of years. Currently it's just speculation and hype that drives the price. When people feel a need for stability, they will try to stay liquid, reduce consumption, maybe buy some gold, but they will shy away from investing in a speculative asset like Bitcoin, except if in the middle of a new hype.
That's not the case for Venezuelans, Turks, and Persians. In fact according to news reports, BTC shot up to the equivalent of $8,400 in Iran. Turkey saw a big spike during its crisis. Venezuelans--well, just ask some of them, they're all over Steemit.
But it doesn't need to be a safe haven. It needs to serve as a chaos hedge. It's much easier to buy than gold and much easier to sell, cheaper to store and less expensive to exchange. Plus nobody can confiscate it. In financial crisis, that's where the money will go. As a result, prices will go up. Then the early buyers will sell. It's not because they want safety, it's because they want to preserve or grow their wealth. They're rich, greedy, or savvy (possibly all three), they're getting ahead of the curve and making sure they have their wealth in something that won't fail. They did it during the 2008 global crisis, they did it during the 2000 US crisis, they did it during the 1998 Asia crisis, they do it all the time.
Yes, I agree with you, if I were in Venezuela, I would rather put everything I have in crypto. Internet is pretty cheap and accessible to a lot of people. Even building food storages are risky, since there are gangs who invade your home and plunder everything. I have communicated with Venezuelans who experienced such things in their neighborhood.
The emerging markets are going to have a serious problem the next couple of years, because they made a lot of debt when the Dollar was cheap and now interest rates are increasing.
The big money comes from the rich countries though, they will mainly dictate the price of crypto.