RE: The first of what will become many Q & A sessions for all the Steemians who wish to become more knowledgeable about cryptocurrency!
You questions are intelligent and well articulated.
- Here is one way into that rabbithole
- The rule with cryptocurremcy is if you dont control the private keys, you don't own it. When you have crypto on deposit at an exchange, all you own is an IOU from the exchange for the balance. If the exchange gets hacked or becomes insolvent for another reason, the IOU could become worthless. The only way to trade on an exchange with zero counterparty risk is in the BitShares DEX, and only if you limit your trading to pairs like BTS:bitUSD (BTS paired with any SmartCoin, or pairs of any two SmartCoins). Assets that are tradeable on the DEX available through OpenLedger's gateway like OPEN.BTC are IOUs, like on a centralized exchange, however the counterparty risk is significantly lower with them because OL's gateway service has a far smaller exploitable surface area than any traditional exchange.If you're holding a significant amount of any coins supported by Trezor or Ledger hardware wallets buy one - you'll sleep easier at night.
- If you are trying to increase your position in fiat currency, then you are absolutely right about there being an extra variable to keep track of. If you are believer, projecting a higher value for crypto than the present market value, you may be comfortable disregarding that variable instead seeking too increase your position in crypto.
If you are new to trading, remember: be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. You'll have to work out the appropriate amounts of fear and greed as too much of either will cost you money.
Also, never make trades out of emotion. If you can't control the urge to panic sell with the herd at the first sign of trouble, or panic buy at the height of euphoria because you don't want to miss the trai (right before it pulls back hard), you're better off sticking to investing based on fundamentals. I lost over a thousand LTC I mined back when it was still easy, and later literally watched over $10k slip through my fingers because i failed to follow these rules, before I began to learn and appreciate their importance.
That being said, if you study technical analysis (especially if it comes naturally to you - a mathematically oriented mind helps tremendously), you can do absurdly well for yourself in these markets. Just remember to hedge against losses, and manage counterparty risks with care - don't entrust your entire holdings to a single 3rd party.
Don't invest more than you can afford to loose or anything you will need to pull out in the near future, these markets are some of the most volatile out there.
And whatever you do - stay far way from Poloniex. That place looks like it could be shaping up to be another Mt.Gox!
Re:
I’ve been telling myself that if I’m going to actively trade in any volume, I need to make “Calm and Patience” my mantra. Luckily, I don’t think I’m inclined to panic sell or panic buy, because I try to keep a macro view on things. If anything, if I see something crashing, I perk up, wondering if people are being irrational. I’m much more interested in gaining some insight on why things happen as opposed to what I should do immediately because “oh no what’s happening?!” Haha. So with that, what I want to become better at is informing myself about different coins, their proposed use cases, the teams behind them, the community behind them, etc. I’m obviously not some trading wiz, so it seems to me that establishing an informed position on a coin before trading it is a good start. This way I can err on the side of “be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”
Unfortunately I’m not so great when it comes to the mathematical side of things, but of course it’s a big part of investing, trading, and just economics, so I’m trying to improve where I can. It is frustrating, because I wish I knew enough to take advantage of the markets, but, you know, gotta do what you can.
If it makes any sense, I almost consider the money I’ve put into crypto as already gone. I don’t mean that I intend to lose it, or that I have a negative attitude. I just make sure that I can 100% afford to say goodbye to what I’ve put in upfront, so that from there, any return is a nice little win, and I can go about trades with no stress. I’m playing with very small amounts/peanuts for now.
Sorry to have been longwinded here - I just wanted to give a proper response to the advice you’ve offered. And with that, thank you for the help! I’m going to go back to quietly learning this stuff, but hopefully if you do another one of these posts I’ll have a couple of good questions at the ready.
p.s. Thanks for the heads up on Poloniex!
The importance of this is absolutely immense, I'm not sure how I can stress it enough. You're already off to a better start than most who first first try their hand at trading with crypto - better off than I was, I had to learn those things the hard way. If you're familiar with the fundamentals, you can remind yourself that they are unchanged despite short term fluctuations.
Hairless monkeys (homo sapiens) are largely irrational. Markets dominated by human traders will be as well. Even trading bots designed by us will reflect that quality - at least until we create a true AI.
For someone new to this, you are possibly going about this in exactly all the right ways. I am rather shocked to hear such a levelheaded strategy from someone who doesn't have experience in stock/commodity/forex markets. Pay attention to chart patterns (including the order of different color candles on past moves. Lower-than 1h candles can be indicative of very short term moves, but I wouldn't try to work those unless the spread is very small - a rarity in these markets). And remember, TA is not infallible. and becomes less reliable the further into the future you make projections. Thinks like unexpected significant news will usually trump it.
I’m really glad to hear you don’t think I’m flying off the handle with my approach so far. I mean, like I said, I’m playing with peanuts, but still, losing any money (barring maybe $2 in fees while starting to learn and place orders, this I may be guilty of) isn’t good. When it comes to concepts, I have a pretty easy time staying balanced - I just perpetually assume I know nothing. When it comes to actions, well, I’m more afraid I’m going to make some stupid, anxious, simple math mistake when placing an order more than I fear I’m going panic my way into a bad position.
I know I can only do so much, but I do intend to learn and (hopefully) assimilate things in a useful way. So it’s encouraging to hear you think I’m going about (or at least thinking about) all of this in a levelheaded way. And I’m very grateful, because you’ve given me some actionable advice as far as what to be cognisant of and what to look further into. Really appreciate it.
Thanks so much to you both for the awesome comments and thread here. So much to learn and so many exceptional opportunities. I really appreciate your insights and look forward to more as you share more information. Hope you're having an amazing weekend!
My pleasure! Asking questions is easy, and I feel fortunate to encounter people who are willing to take the time to offer advice and thoughts. Hope you're having a great weekend too!