Are we in cryptocurrencies bubble now? Data to think about...
It looks that we are entering bubble territory for a vast majority of alt coins (except Bitcoin probably). Just think about and analyze the following facts:
At least several dozens alt coins market caps skyrocketed 300%-4000%(yes, four thousand!) recently just over last 2 months!
The beginning of sharp increase happened around middle of March of 2017 for ALL alt coins!
Yes, some alt coins sharp increase is logically justifiable. For example, Ripple XRP: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/01/japanese-banks-plan-to-adopt-blockchain-for-payments.html . Maybe there are couple other alt coins where this huge growth is also justifiable.
But for vast majority of other alt coins nothing has changed drastically during the last 2 months! At all! Neither in their technologies development, nor in their business development! But nevertheless, their market cap skyrocketed 300%-4000% in just 2 months!
The only explanation which comes to mind is that huge amount of new capital is coming to cryptocurrencies market. Probably these are the people/investors who have heard about the first wave of Bitcoin and Ethereum successes, and they have a FOMO (fear of missing out) now. They don't have deep understanding of cryptocurrencies space and their differences, but because of FOMO they still invest in all other alt coins hoping to hit jackpot!
Does it remind you anything? Yes, exactly, dot com bubble of 2000 looks very similar!
Therefore, I would expect some kind of significant downside price correction within next several months for the majority of alt coins.
Honestly, we're going to get a correction of some sorts but, like you alluded to in point 5, it might be overlooked with the sheer amount of new money entering the markets. People are starting to have more faith in blockchain and now with these new applications (for example, ANT on Ethereum) we could start seeing an even bigger boom with commercial adoption.
I think if you stick to the top 10-15 coins, you'll be safe. Less than that, you might still be safe but you could also lose. Remember folks, only invest what you're willing to lose at this point or stick with the top coins and tokens.