BTC/Bitcoin Cash/ETH thoughts

As I write this,

BTC: 6100
Cash: 1500 (.244)
ETH: 301

On a macro level, BCC is very easy to manipulate because of who owns it. All of the people who own bitcoin also owned BCC at launch. Most of the biggest hodlers probably never sold the initial dump (big enough accounts don't trade very often or only do it OTC as they move the market). That means the bulk of BCC landed in the hands of paleozoic whales with agendas, grudges and internecine plots going back years. Additionally, to most rational people, owning a coin valued at 100 and another at 5 is worse than owning one valued at 80 and another at 30. This made repeated P&D cycles of BCC inevitable from the moment the project started.

The attack this week is very cleverly timed, but a rational actor would not go for the kill here. Nobody, not even Roger Ver and friends, benefits from a dying BTC when Cash does not have the physical infrastructure or outside support to take its place and when the cryptosphere is months away at most from a big Wall Street pump. However, pumping Cash hard, selling the top and rekting noobs on both sides of the trade on the way down is very achievable and something that would concentrate a lot of Cash in Roger's hands in preparation for a future attempt. Therefore, fundamental analysis (or what passes for it in crypto) suggests that BTC recovers and Cash fades back to its normal range once the difficulty adjustment and Cash HF are both in.

Meanwhile, ETH has held its value almost perfectly while ETH/BTC has begun to recover from pre-2x lows. That ICOs are recovering suggests that ETH will begin another push up in the near future (in fact it has already). FA for ETH brings up a few points that are probably not fully priced in:

• The failed wave of ICOs from the fall is dumping less ETH on the market than the wave from the summer.

• 1% of all current ETH is locked in the Polkadot wallet. Those specific coins are likely much more than 1% of all ICO-participating ETH, accounting for more liquidity than their share.

• As the only other coin actively being used for anything, it serves as a hedge for people trying to escape any future BTC/Cash struggles.

In the medium term I expect ETH to approach its original .07 support turned resistance levels from the early fall. Assuming BTC sees off the challenge and sticks to this general 6k-7k value area, that would put ETH at close to its USD ATH.