STEEM (STEEM/USD) Top-Down Technical Analysis - May Go For New Highs Soon

Hi Everyone

I've been a technical trader for quite a while now but recently added many cryptocurrencies to my portfolio. I don't really get too involved in the fundamentals - I trade mainly on higher timeframes and today I want to break down the STEEM/USD chart with a quick top-down analysis.

Monthly Timeframe

In August 2016 we can see price tried to make a break for the $2.70 resistance level and failed, falling back down below $0.40 where it stayed right through to February 2017. In March of 2017 we saw the start of the first impulse leg, which lasted 4 months, taking us to Jun 2017 where again, price retested the $2.70 resistance level and failed.

At the end of an impulse wave comes correction and that's exactly what we can see from July 2017 through to November 2017. The market consolidated whilst finding support at the $0.70 level.

From December 2017 came the start of the next impulse wave. With support from the $0.70 support level, the December 2017 candle successfully broke and closed above the $2.70 previous resistance level. It actually went as high as $4.35 before dropping back and closing the month at $3.00 on the dot.

Tip: When market breaks a strong resistance/support level, always look for the possibility of a 'retest' before continuing in it's direction.

This month started with a retest of the $2.70 previous resistance level and it has held strong as support. This support helped to push price up and the continuation of the impulse leg went as high up as $8.75 before finding resistance. The market has since pushed this pair back down and it is currently trading at $4.41, creating a very large bearish wick above the body of the green candle.

If the month closes with such a long wick, we are unlikely to break the ATH of $8.75 and instead we will most likely begin a correction back to the recent support shelf at $2.75 before the next impulse to the upside. Ideally, we want to close this month above $5.00 to continue our impulse wave into February before the next consolidation period.

Weekly Timeframe

On the weekly timeframe we can see price has in fact dropped last week to successfully retest the $2.70 level as support (previously resistance). We have 3 strong bearish candles and the current candle is testing the recent shelf level of $4.30. If this level can hold and we close above it, there is a chance we can close the month above $5.00. However, if we close the week below this level, then we are likely to consolidate the next 2-3 weeks back down near $3.00 before another impulse.

We have additional confluence of the $2.70 - $3.00 support level holding as strong support as the Weekly EMA50 draws in closer to that level. As it climbs closer to that level in the coming weeks, should price fall to those levels we are likely to see strong support and very little opportunity to fall below it.

Daily Timeframe

We can see a very clear 'Break & Retest' setup. We have a bullish breakout on the 1st of January 2018, closing on the 3rd of January 2018 with our ATH of $8.75 before consolidating back to the recent resistance, which has now turned support. With price consolidating down to this level and the Daily 50EMA acting as dynamic support, compressing price up... a breakout is imminent and with the 50EMA being in our previous resistance (now support) level, it gives extra support for price to break out to the upside as we would expect.

4-Hour Timeframe

So on the 3rd of January 2018 Steem was at $8.58, an ATH and from there on we can see it fell in to a downward trend making clear lower highs and lower lows on the 4-Hour timeframe. However, in the last 24-hours price has found support at a support zone around $3.85, retesting a previous resistance level from late December.

If price can break and close above the 4-Hour 50EMA, which I feel is possible in the coming days, this will give extra support for price to make another leg up and the immediate target would be to make a higher high above $5.90.

I think we have enough confluence to say that price will be going up soon and around Mid/End of Feb we will see price retest of the highs of $8.75.

I hope this analysis has been helpful. Don't forget to vote if you liked this top-down analysis and would like to see more like this. I look forward to any comments :)