RE: Hey Mark Cuban, Stick to What You Know!
Bitcoin can be in a bubble without it being a fad that will be replaced by something else in the future...
When you say,
I agree that Bitcoin could pull back at any time. It has pulled back roughly 178 times since 2013. I fully expect that trend to continue.
You basically are agreeing that Bitcoin could be in a bubble. But you also say,
The real question when calling something a bubble is if you think it will never make new highs again. Otherwise any pullbacks and corrections are just volatility on it's way to higher highs that any long term investor should simply ignore.
which is not true. Just because the internet is huge doesn't mean the dotcom bubble in the late 90's wasn't a bubble, and just because housing prices go back up doesn't mean there never was a housing bubble.
Remember just because you are "investing for the [sic] world changing technology" doesn't mean we aren't in the midst of a massive bubble.
True... to an extent. However, when people use the word bubble they tend to imply that the asset is in a massively overvalued state which is not likely to be reached again. Would saying Bitcoin is due for a pullback or a correction not be a more accurate statement?
Perhaps, but this isn't how people used the word bubble during the dot-com bubble or the more recent housing bubble, and prices have gone back and were probably expected to back to what they were. Particularly the dot-com bubble I think is a relevant example because it is an example of a market that was valued correctly but a decade too early. We may be there with blockchain technology.
Yes I think you are exactly right. If you look back at a couple of my recent posts you will see I have posted a lot of price cycle graphs. Price tends to follow a similar pattern. The question I guess we have to ask is what stage of the cycle are we currently in?
I would argue we are somewhere near the bear trap phase...
By the "take off/first sell off" seeing mini ups and downs. "New Paradigm" is at least 10 million a bitcoin.
How many times could this chart repeat itself in one stock? We saw this chart the first time bitcoin went to $1 then $100 then $1000. Could this cycle keep repeating?
Feels more like enthusiasm stage for me. The public is about to enter the picture in a big way and then greed and delusion will follow soon after. Top in at christmas maybe?
Media Attn. is my guess. But I am not going near it. Good post. Not a Cuban fan. Posting a screencast on todays market action, I discuss a little on the $ and bitcoin amongst other things. Have a good one :)