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RE: I WAS going to write a post about KuCoin exchange but...

Ok, I promise I won't go on a long rant this time, but there are a few questions that you didn't really answer that maybe you could clarify.

This logarithm thing for start. I'll say, prices move based on economics, not imaginary lines drawn on charts. Sure, price likes to obey support and resistance for very sound financial and psychological reasons, no argument there. But a curved line that was started 8 years ago is still used by people today to make their trading decisions ?

What log are we talking about anyway ? what base ? Is it base 10 ? is it a natural log ? Is it some other weird and wonderful base that only works on crypto and unknown to us mere mortals ? Or is it just the one that looks like it works ? Give me any stock from the beginning of time and I'll produce a polynomial that fits it perfectly. But that has absolutely no bearing on future price, that's just Gamblers Fallacy, the human need to find patterns in chaos, and the death of 90% of new traders.

Nothing in crypto is new, it's just not special. Those charts you made yesterday just look like any new stock IPO curves, or any new technology, or social function or new anything. Bear in mind that hokey "Wall Street" diagram we referenced was made by someone in... Wall Street ? To demonstrate what a new stock bubble looks like in... Wall Street ? It was probably made way before blockchain was even invented ! It has nothing to do with crypto. But crypto, like all 'new' things follows the same pattern, just like everything else. That doesn't mean that crypto is 'special', it's just more proof that it behaves exactly like any other stock !

To show you the power of curve fitting, I'll challenge you to pick any currency pair, and I mean any, Majors, Minors, Exotic, Emerging Markets, and I'll show you the exact same diagrams from any single pair. It's easy to find patterns when you're looking for them. You should read my post on the chart delusion just to prove the futility of trying to see patterns where there are none.

I think you're going to find out very soon that your log growth channel stops working and the price just meanders out the side. Just like it has done for every single asset since the advent of time. Again, unless it's hyperinflation (which always leads to financial collapse) it's just not going to happen. Crypto is nothing special. Capitalist FIAT currency certainly doesn't hyperinflate or we'd all be back in the Stone Age by now as the monetary systems around the world would have failed.

So it still doesn't explain where all the money is coming from to buy all this crypto and keep it in a log upgrowth ? Salaries don't double every year, the cost of living doesn't half every year, so where is the money coming from ?

That Bitcoin spike was a bubble, pure and simple. That was the result of crypto becoming 'mainstream'. It was on the MSM daily and attracted all the idiots who thought they were going to make a quick buck. It was sold on lies and false promises by crypto investors (trying to push the price up on assets that they already owned..). That was all the 'ma and pa' investors, thinking they could make a quick buck and top up their pensions. And what happened ? They got raped, every single one of them. That was ordinary people, using their pensions, savings, college funds, all gone. The people with any sense saw the bubble and got out with an amazing profit. Crypto is dead to them now, so where are all these new investors coming from to keep this log upgrowth ?

Crypto is old news, the MSM forgot it, no longer news worthy, no-one is interested anymore. Its back in the hands of a few internet geeks, as it was before the bubble. Where is the money coming from ? Everyone who would want to be invested in crypto is already invested. If you think that banks and institutional investors are just going to jump in now and start spending then you don't understand how little money there is in crypto. The entire market cap of crypto is about 1% of a single FIAT currency. Why would anyone in a position of wealth invest in something that gives them a tiny fraction of a return ? To them, it's a penny stock, best left to the amateurs and their pissy $1000 accounts.

I utterly disagree about your statement on ATR. The ATR when it was fractions of a dollars years ago has absolutely no relation to what it is now. Neither does the current price. They are not linked in any single provable way. Sure, draw as many imaginary lines on a chart and curve fit to your hearts content, but your curve is never going to predict the future. You are curve fitting based on past performance. I have yet to see a single 'prediction' come true yet. Assets just don't follow mathematical formulas, they never have and never will.

Regarding Moores law, I'm sorry you're just wrong on that one. That 'law' has had its day. We are fast approaching the thermal limit of what's possible with junction sizes. Unless some amazing new technology appears that revolutionises heat dissipation... but then Moores law would be broken anyway as that would be a new technology, much like quantum computers will be exempt from 'the law'. Unfortunately before I became a full time trader I was a physicist, so if your somehow suggesting the law of physics are wrong then I'd be more than happy to have a chat about it. If you're right then there's probably a Nobel prize in it for you and you can forget all this crypto nonesense :-)

I'll wrap up now, in all seriousness though, please read that article I linked to above, it will explain my views on seeing patterns where there aren't any.

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Oh wow. THAT was an eye opener! I just read the link (I haven't read the rest of your post yet) and I think I may have found the core of your chart disbelief bias.

It stems from the pattern recognition issue. The fact that you could draw lines on a temperature graph, on coin tosses etc.

Here is the difference between you and I (I think). You believe that these things are unrelated to trading. I don't.

My view may sound silly, but these things follow natural predictable patterns, the exact same way that trading does.

I firmly believe in applying the Normal Distribution to seemingly random events like this. I believe in Fibonacci patterns and fractals being applicable to stock markets, coin tosses, average temperatures and MANY other things. This article is worth reading https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patterns_in_nature - it lists a few great examples. Sometimes the reasons for the patterns are simple enough to deduce e.g. why asteroids are found in bands and are not evenly distributed, sometimes they are impossible to determine at this stage (markets being a good example of that).

I will get to the rest of your post shortly and attempt to address any questions which I may have missed or failed to answer properly. But for now, sorry, but I must disagree with your post of "The Chart Delusion" at the fundamental level.

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