I haven't seen the comments before. Sorry it has taken so long to reply. The target price is 50% above the August 26 price in three months. I started with a 50% probability (a coin flip). I thought three months would give crypto coins a chance to overcome any blip from the July-August rollercoaster. The 50% target was pretty arbitrary (it works out at four times the original price in one year). I was more interested in seeing how much developments (rather than simple investments) were reflected in the price, though price movements are obviously also a stimulus. Hope that helps you understand what I am after.