Crypto market bull run?

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I want to talk about what happened yesterday and what it could mean for the market.   

I had other plans for this post, but then the market spiked, less than two hours after my last post, you know, the one predicting the market spike.   

But I’m not here to gloat, I’m here to discuss, very briefly, what could be happening. Then after that I’ll talk a little bit about what is to come from this blog in the future. I aim to make this a three minute read, let’s see if I can hit that mark.   

The events of the last 24 hours 

If you have not read my post from yesterday (Crypto Markets March 2018 - up or down?) then please do so. This is not to boost my readership figures, what I will say now builds on that post. 

Yesterday I outlined two main scenarios. Very briefly: 1) a bear market, and 2) a bounce off a double bottom support level and a subsequent climb back up to the trend line. I was heavily in support of Scenario 2 (and I still am). 

Did my prediction then start to come true a couple of hours after I posted it? Let’s see. Today we face three possible scenarios: 

• Scenario A – I was wrong.  I’m still wrong.  This is a false spike and the market will crash again.  It will continue downward on the slope predicted by the bears (like Scenario 1 yesterday). 
• Scenario B – We are both wrong. This movement does not fit the profile that the bears predict, but it will ultimately fail to be the rebound that I predicted. The market is behaving erratically and neither scenario from yesterday is correct. 
• Scenario C – I’m right. The market will climb back above the trend line I showed yesterday and will recover. 

So which is it? What will happen? Again, I tell you: if anyone says they know what will happen then don’t listen to them. They can’t know. They can make an educated guess like I do, but there can be no certainty in this market. Once again, I leave it to you to make up you own minds. Don’t forget to DYOR. I’m happy to guide you, and you can trust me, but then don’t blame me when I get it wrong. 

The fact is that BTC did shoot up, about $1300 USD or 16% (within 24 hours) at the time of writing. That is not just a small bump on a graph, but it’s also not enough to confirm a trend reversal. Personally, I would like to see BTC back above $12k and the Total Market Cap back above $600bn before I feel that we’re in the clear and back on track.  Volume has also started to climb. 

I still stand firmly behind my trend line on the long-term logarithmic scale and I believe we will get back above (and slightly beyond) that line. This whole market feels like a coiled spring… 

One more interesting observation before I depart from this topic: 

When forecasting the coming recovery (which I actually started a long time before I wrote that post yesterday), I was torn as to which chart to use: BTC or Total Market Cap. BTC has been the poster child for crypto and the dominant force for so long. Where BTC leads, the market follows. My charts yesterday used BTC (mainly because TradingView can’t show Total Market Cap), though I prefer to work with Total Market Cap. If Scenario C is correct and my prediction comes true, then BTC is no longer the dominant force that it once was. Total Market Cap predicted the support levels and double bottom far more accurately than BTC did. This is worth remembering going into the future. I believe that this stems from the massive rise of the altcoins in early January 2018. 

That’s all I have to say on the markets (for now), I will be watching them very closely for the rest of the week!   

What is to come (from this blog, not the markets) 

As promised here is a quick look at what to expect from this blog in the future: 

Discussions about various crypto related topics that we encounter daily, things like:  

• YouTubers and bloggers – should they shill their coins,  
• The centralised nature of money and the need for crypto, 
• What gives crypto value?, 
• A little bit about myself (I wouldn’t want to bore you with the details), 
• Coins I have recently traded, and why, 
• Coins I hold, and why, (Spoiler alert: I hold a LOT of coins. I have an extremely spread out portfolio)
• Where I think the market is headed at the time (like I did yesterday), 
• A short look at specific coins (which the community may suggest). I’ll study them and report back on what I see as the future for each. I’ll even tell you if I hold/have held/want to hold each coin, so that you can see if I’m shilling it or not, :D  

That and much more.   

Thanks for reading, I HOPE that took you three minutes! Please feel free to comment, I may not always agree with your feedback, but it all helps make me a better blogger.   

DISCLAIMER: 

I am not a financial advisor nor am I a professional trader/investor. This is not financial advice, investment advice or trading advice. Unless otherwise stated, all my posts are my opinion and nothing more. Crypto is highly volatile and you can easily lose everything in crypto. You invest at your own risk!  Information I post may be erroneous or construed as being misleading. I will not be held responsible for anything which is incorrect, missing, out-of-date or fabricated. Any information you use is done so at your own risk. Always Do Your Own Research (DYOR) and realise that you and you alone are responsible for your crypto portfolio and whatever happens to it.