Several Perspectives on MEMEcoin | 关于MEME的几个观点
1 Narrative of Pure MEME Coins
Pure MEME coins share the same narrative.
The difference lies in the intensity of the narrative. Some have more dramatic operations and stronger momentum. Some have stronger financial backing and more aggressive price pumps. Of course, some #MEME coins may develop products and ecosystems in the future, bringing new narratives.
Although each pure MEME coin has different images, "cultures," and stories, it is unlikely that anyone truly likes or believes in these images, "cultures," or stories. The difference is that some are perceived to have stronger reflexivity.
However, the narrative of pure MEME coins is hard to sustain.
$doge, $Shib, and $pepe are not pure MEME coins. Beyond the MEME, they have products, iterative developments, and ecosystems that can bring sustained narratives.
2 Differences Between Pure MEME Coins and MEME Coins
Pure MEME coins and MEME coins are different. Pure MEME coins have no products, only communities. Communities are like birds of a feather; they flock together in good times but disperse when the bear market comes.
3 Prosperous Environment for MEME Coins
The rise of MEME coins in 2024 is essentially a form of wishful thinking.
The overall environment hasn't arrived, the market narrative hasn't arrived, but market sentiment and hot money have. However, the market and hot money cannot create technology, products, and ecosystems. So, they can only indulge in fantasies. Issues in VC coins, such as continuous unlocking and insider trading, may also exist in MEME coin projects.
4 Logic of MEME Coin Price Increase
The price increase of MEME coins stems from their reflexivity.
People believe they will rise, so they buy in, and as a result, the price actually rises.
5 Logic of MEME Coin Price Decrease
The reflexivity of MEME coins is fragile.
Among those who buy MEME coins, most do not like or agree with the MEME culture; they simply recognize its reflexivity. Soon, as the influx of value slows down, these people will gradually exit, causing MEME coins to drop quickly after a rapid rise.
6 Can MEME Coins Be Played?
Of course! However, for right-side trading, there are two key factors:
First, the common narrative of MEME coins must begin. As mentioned earlier, all pure MEME coins share the same narrative.
Second, they must have strong reflexivity. In other words, they can persuade more people to join in.
Two points to note:
First, pay attention to listing on CEX. Before listing on CEX, it is relatively early. After listing on small and medium CEXs, it could be the mid or late stage.
Second, monitor Twitter discussion heat. When discussion heat diminishes, it may be time to consider exiting.
Who is not suitable for MEME?
If you cannot check Twitter several times a day, or even only once every few days, you might not be suitable for MEME. Due to a lack of sensitivity, you might end up becoming a bag holder.
一、纯MEME币的叙事
纯MEME其实共享的是同一个叙事。
区别是，叙事的力度不同。有的运营戏更多，带节奏更强。有的背后的资金实力更雄厚，拉盘更猛。当然，不乏一些后续做产品的 #MEME ，产品、生态会有新的叙事。
虽然每一个纯MEME都有不同的形象、"文化"和故事等。但大概率不会有人真的喜欢或信仰这些形象、"文化"或故事等。区别只是，它们中的某些让人认为会有更强反身性。
但是，纯MEME的叙事很难具有持续性。
#doge #Shib #pepe 这些都不是纯MEME，它们在MEME之外，都有产品，产品的迭代、生态的发展，这可以带来持续的叙事。
二、纯MEME币与MEME币的不同
纯MEME和MEME不同。纯MEME，没有产品，只有社群。社群本是同林鸟，大熊来时各自飞。
三、MEME币的繁荣环境
2024年MEME的崛起，本质上是一种意淫。
大环境没到，行情叙事没到，但市场情绪和热钱到了，可是市场和热钱不能做技术、产品和生态。于是，只能意淫。VC币的问题包括持续解锁、老鼠仓……这些情况在MEME币项目上，未必没有。
四、MEME币的上涨逻辑：
MEME的上涨来源于其反身性。
人们认为会上涨，于是买入，于是真的上涨了。
五、MEME币的下跌逻辑：
MEME的这种反身性是脆弱的。
在购买MEME的人群中，大部分不是喜欢或认同这种MEME文化，只是认识到这种反身性。很快，随着价值流入减慢，这些人会渐渐退出，从而导致MEME快速上涨以后迅速下跌。
六、MEME币可以玩吗？
当然可以！但是，右侧交易，两大要素：
一是MEME的共同叙事开始。前面说了，所有的纯MEME其实是同一个叙事。
二是具有强反身性。说白了，可以说服更多人参与进来。
要注意两点：
一是注意上线CEX。在上线CEX之前是相对早期，上线中小CEX以后，可能是中期、也可能是晚期了。
二是关注推特讨论热度。讨论热度减弱时，可能就要考虑离场的。
什么人不适合MEME?
如果不能每天关注好几遍推特，甚至好几天看一眼，有可能就不太适合MEME了。因为缺乏敏感度，很有可能买成接盘侠。
