BTC / Alts update

Right now, one thing is abundantly clear, ALTs are following Bitcoin. We think this will hold true at least until $BTC breaks up, out of the symmetrical triangle pattern it’s in. For that reason, when determining if we should hold our positions, we put most of the weight on what we think Bitcoin will do.

Looking at the past 7 days, Bitcoin’s price action has had the lowest standard deviation since April 5th-12th. Prior to this past week and the seven days beginning on April 5th, Bitcoin has not experienced a lower weekly standard deviation, than these two sets of time, in well over six months.

So how can we interpret this?

Traditionally, when price action of liquid assets begins to decrease in volatility over time (especially in our experience with trading cryptos) it means that strong accumulation is taking place anytime we approach clear bottom support. The honest truth is that the markets we operate in have players that can manipulate prices in order to achieve the positions they are searching for.

Recently, an almost comical ‘charting pattern’ has been used to describe the decreased volatility and choppy nature of Bitcoin’s price. ‘Barting’, which references the hair and head Bart Simpson, has been how a lot of traders have addressed what the price of $BTC has done in the past week.

We did a YouTube video on “the Bart” here: https://tinyurl.com/ycr3gc2r

Although the price of $BTC has stayed range bound from $7100-$7650, clear accumulation is visible when viewing how the price has fluctuated. There have been multiple 4 hour timeframes where the price fluctuates less than 0.25%, but also 30 minute windows where we have seen $200 price swings. These aggressive moves are then accompanied by long periods of low volatility which points to accumulation and high frequency algorithmic trading (bot trades).

The last time Bitcoin pressured support on the symmetrical triangle shared here: https://t.me/BitcoinBravado/1055 - was during the consolidation we saw during the first two weeks of April around the $6800 levels.

Upon recently evaluating the leading Bitcoin OTC site “LocalBitcoins” we’ve also learned that “over the counter” purchases of Bitcoin are at all time high levels:fire: This action isn’t expressed on any exchange because the trades happen peer to peer.

The question we need to answer is how does this behavior influence our allocation decisions.

We’re predicting there will be anywhere from 3-5 more days of accumulation and then fresh volume will enter the space in order to drive prices to profitable levels for those who are entrants now.

Because of this, we are comfortable holding the mid/long term ALT positions we’ve built, we’re becoming more agressive searching for fresh entries, and we’re holding the long we opened around $7100 as targetted on our TA:moneybag:

Regardless of what happens, we’re also prepared should we be wrong. If BTC begins to lose support at $7k, we’ll be watching the important $6800 level as a breaking point.