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RE: Don't keep your coins in exchange

in #crypto7 years ago (edited)

A lot of it is a combination of risk tolerance, EV hunting, and maximization.

I loan BTC and BTS on poloniex. BTC average about .15-.16% per day, and poloniex has never defaulted on repaying a loaner (presumably because they take 15% commission).

Compound .16%*.85 over a year and we are looking at a >60% ROI each year. Let's turn this into an EV problem.

In the next year, I will turn my X bitcoins into 1.6X bitcoins if the exchange is not hacked or goes insolvent. What is the breakeven %?

When exchange insolvent, assume I get 0.
Y*1.6X = X => Y = .625, which means if the exchange goes insolvent under 37.5% of the time, I am making a +EV move by keeping coins on and loaning them.

Of course you do have to factor in future EV of the coins and that they could 10x down the line, and a total risk ruin to crypto bankroll, but if I think it's less than 5% poloniex goes down in any year, it would be dumb of me not to gamble on 20-25% of my crypto assets.

That said, anything I'm not loaning and not trading I am not keeping on any exchange. Get a hardware stick like Trezor and keep your coins safe.

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oh, daut! i was just thinking of you, bro these past days. Friend of mine won a HORSE tournament and i was thinking, that guy needs to get into crypt, i should give daut as an example...WHERE IS THAT GUY?!
Glad to see you around and that you follow the feed as well!! I hope all is well with you and thank you for commenting!!

Haha, hey man, good to see you still blogging and doing well. And congrats to your friend!

I'll be around more frequently than I have been the last 6 months :)

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