2/17/18 - Where Is Bitcoin Headed?

Bitcoin hit 6000 and has since been on a new uptrend.

Will it last? And how far will go?

What I am hearing around the water cooler is $50K.

But my focus isn't so much the top as it is on what is the trend doing.

Here's my speculation (which is not financial advice) and how I am determining buy points and sell points.

First, here are some pictures to refer to as I explain my speculation.

The first two pics are Fibonacci fans.

The first pic shows that price action moved to the top side of the fan, which signifies a definite trend change.

The second one of the new uptrend isn't as promising, since the trend came near the very bottom of the fan.

However, it is moving back towards the top.

Since the uptrend isn't super strong, it could go either way (but I am bullish).

The first Fibonacci retracement is of the recent major pullback.

We are at a 61.8% retracement from the bottom ($6000).

This is equivalent to a 38.2% retracement from the top of an uptrend, for example.

Neither is indicative of a permanent trend change.

So I did another of the first, new swing high of this current uptrend.

It went from 9000 then did 38.2% pullback to around 8000.

Not enough pullback to change trend, so it continued upwards to 11000.

Since the Fibonacci fan of the new uptrend was still in the bottom half of the fan, I did a retracement of the full uptrend from 6000 to 11000.

There hasn't been a decent pullback since it went from 9000 to 8000 and 11000 is a previous support level during the recent pullback from 19000 to 6000.

So it may find resistance there and pullback again 38-50%.

Which would make a nice buy point.

So if it hits resistance at 11000 and pulls back it could theoretically come back anywhere between 10000 and 8000.

My guess would be on the higher end like 10000 since the new uptrend hasn't gained much momentum yet and still has a lot of room to grow.

But we'll see!

In Fibonacci's, a trend is typically considered over after a 70% move in the opposite direction.

Based on that we'd need to get to about $17k to be in a solid uptrend.

So $17k is my major benchmark and buy point.

If it passes $17k, I am all in.

Thanks for reading!