Manipulation: Vital information on market movement and how to read WHALE efforts for $profit!

in #crypto6 years ago (edited)

The single most relevant factor to get your head around in the crazy world of Crypto-trading is a complex one. But to understand this factor is to understand all the anger and frustration you've ever felt when Crypto trades go heavily against you and will massively contribute to your future financial gains!

Firstly, we need to talk about market share.

To hold a majority share of one coin gives you the majority of control of that coin. For example, an exchange has distribution access to 500,000 ECC coins. 100,000 of these coins have been bought by its users leaving 400,000 coins in their hands to distribute to new buyers. Buying ALL of those 400,000 coins would give you SOME control of that coins price movement, but mostly only on that exchange and only for a short time. If you wanted MASS control of the coin in writing, you would have to accumulate a majority of the TOTAL coins in distribution. This will often amount to BILLIONS of coins. Needless to say, for the most part unless you have $10-$100 million, accumulating your own majority market share would be impossible and hugely risky, as the less money you have to invest the lower the price of the coin itself. Potentially leaving you with one of the crappy Alts.

If you check the chart below you can see that the majority of Bitcoin is held in just 4.11% of ALL Bitcoin wallets.

BTC wealth distribution.jpg

This puts the control of the price movement of BTC in the hands of just 4.1% of all bitcoin owners, and they know this. It was planned that way!

The elite of the largest countries own the majority of the cash money, and that is how they leverage the people with debt, warfare, fear, violence and greed. Unfortunately, it seems the powers earners have managed to accumulate BTC for themselves in gigantic amounts and it will never be distributed to the people unless price hits a high we could never afford. At which time of course, they would start selling off their large positions and in turn, BTC would take a turn to the downside . This means if they want to hold their wealth, they have to retain their positions. And that is likely what they will do.

Now,

The big banks and their masses of Btc can manipulate it using a few techniques that have been used for decades (at least). One particular technique was made famous by Jordan Belfort in the 90's.

The Pump and Dump.

While The write up below is NOT my writing, I cannot find the person behind it to credit them. If I find him I will be certain to edit and tag him in the article. Also of course, remove if he wishes. In my mind the sharing of information helps everyone, and information like this should not be kept for the few!


Highly recommend you read this entirely. It is long but worth it. Written by a true OG Doge whale.

“Majority believe that markets move randomly and reflect the collective wisdom of investors, the truth is quite the opposite.The invisible hand is a myth. Market prices have always been manipulated by the government's visible hands through influencing laws and regulation. Insiders control markets and manipulate them up or down for profit. Manipulation is everywhere, undeniable and unavoidable. It happens on a very large scale throughout every single financial market out there, stock, bonds, commodities, currencies and so forth. There are other types of manipulation, such as social and news manipulation, hence I called it: The Game of Deception.

"Whale watching" is a trading strategy of monitoring the trades of the most influential or wealthy investors, known as "whales". "Whales" refers to traders with significant bankrolls that their actions impact heavily on the markets. The purpose of this post is to trade in the shadow of the smart money, understanding how market manipulation works, and become profitable by understanding. Most traders do not understand volume implications and how vital it is in their analysis of any of the markets. Given at any point of time, traders are constantly long, short, holding, some waiting to get into the market, some already in profitable positions. "Long" means when a trader buys, in this example: DOGE/BTC hoping that the value of Doge will go up against BTC, the "Short" means the opposite. Whenever a trade is entered, the exchange will register this as volume on a continuous ongoing basis.

Volume represents activity and it relates to the price bar on your chart. Chart reflects clearly and is the reason why it is behaving the way it is. "Whales" contributes 70-80% of the volume you see, which is why it is large enough to alter the direction of a market. I will not go into identifying the traces of a whale, but rather my primary focus would be explaining how manipulation works, and the thoughts of a market manipulator. "If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperilled in a hundred battles" - Sun Tzu.

Individuals trade the market for a purpose, and that is to profit. Many of you are meticulous in entering a trade, cracking your head whether the price you are about to buy or sell is too high or low, although some might possess knowledge of technical analysis, you are still at a loss in the end. This is quite common, for you have not understand the characteristic of a "whale". They are ruthless, swift, cunning, very very patient and most importantly, they do not obey the rules of the game. A price will never be too high or low for them. Prices might have soar 100%, 200% and it will never be too late for them to enter. Buy high? Sell higher! Sell low? Buy lower! To almost everyone, it is simply just pump and dump. However, the truth is, there are many stages to make a pump and dump successful. The stages include:

  1. Position Building
  2. Suppressing prices
  3. Test Pump
  4. Actual Pump
  5. Shakeouts
  6. Re-allocation and distribution
  7. Exiting - The Dump

Position Building
There are multiple ways to build a position. This is the stage where we will require a significant amount of market share to do pumps. The most common method will be micro buys. Through placing of buy order in relatively small amounts, it avoids driving up prices and also masked our existence. Some alternate coins, however, has really low amount of volume, and it will take ages to build up our position through micro buys. In such cases, we will be force to do a pump up, to encourage sellers. Pump waves will be gradually decreasing, smaller and smaller, forcing out all sellers so that we can have what we want - market share. This has happened many times in fact to date, such as Doge/BTC, UNO/BTC, Dev/BTC and GLC/BTC.

Suppressing prices
Contradicting isn't it? That we are willing to pump altcoins up a few times of it's value worth before driving down its prices. And yes, like I have stated earlier on, prices does not matter to us as long we can sell higher. However, like every other business on the industry, everyone would want their costs to be as low as possible. In this very stage, we will pile up whatever we have bought, to suppress prices as much as possible through sell walls so that
we are able to do our buying cheap. Our sell walls are usually just enough to appear as though as it's the invisible hands of the market, minor supply over demand.

Test Pump
Before a real pump happens, whales like us tends to test the market. Why? Reason is simple. It is to ensure that we have absolute control of the market. Test pump, like shakeouts, actual pumps, re-allocation and distribution, happens many time throughout the pump and dump process. By doing a test pump, we will roughly get an idea on where our next resistance will be and how much floating chips are around (Floating chips refers to weak hands). Whales hate weak hands, they do not act as any form of support for us during a pump, and we will are always determine to get rid of them in the early stages, no matter how long it takes.

Actual Pump
The term pretty much explains everything. When weak hands are being forced out, and we have gained the market share that we expect, we are ready to move.

Shakeouts
Shakeout is a deliberately forced price reaction, whose purpose is that of stimulating public selling in order to facilitate the accumulation of speculative positions. This is the most aggressive part in wiping out weak hands of their positions. Sometimes during a shakeout, we can be so aggressive that we drive prices so low that's it's way below our cost price. Losses does not matter to us, it is only on paper, and we have enough bankroll to pump prices back up. Individuals who have no experienced or unable to withstand such psychological torture will usually exit the market at this stage.

Re-allocation and distribution
Re-allocation and distribution usually serves the purpose for us to re-balance our portfolio. In a test pump, we might distribute you some of our shares (coins). The logic is quite simple, sometimes during a pump, buying into our own walls and others, we bought more than expected. We will have to release a few back to the individual traders. At times, it serves as a support, and reduce our risk exposure or being a "safe trap". What do I mean by that? For
example if you were to distribute you at $5 and then we were to drive prices back down to $4.50, we will know that the total amount of shares being distributed at $5 will not be selling at $5. Traders tend to exit when in profit and are unlikely to exit with breakeven costs. I used the word "safe" is because, this is not the part where we will be dumping. There are alot of re-allocation and distribution, like shuffling a pack of cards throughout the entire process, and prices tend to go much higher than the price that you are "trapped" at.

Exiting - The Dump
This is usually the last stage. The part where we take our profits and completely exiting the market. There are many exit strategies available to us. I will be revealing some of it and explain. The most common mindset everyone had is that we either micro sell or massively dump into buy walls during a dump. Theses are just the basic. Usually by exiting via this method, gives us really a bad price to sell at. One of the exotic methods we used : "Exit during a pump". This works by having sell walls in place, and buying into our own walls again and again aggressively until the crowd follows. Once they follow, they will be biting into our walls. Hence we are able to exit portions of it, bits by bits, rinse and repeat a few times, we will be able to exit the market completely”.

And some comments:
“Never chase the pump. You counter this by buying absolute dumps, when the market is at the lowest strength, price is at a bottom and nobody wants it, and selling when everyone is talking about it and prices.”
“Easy to say, hard to spot which and when to buy. Any clues?” “Coins that nobody wants, not talking about, but actually have sound fundamentals (ongoing development, verifiable team with good track records). Gotta wait until they have dumped about -90% from their prior highs”.''


Interesting read right? Explains a lot about some situations you may have found yourselves in at some points in your trading.

Understanding how the whales work puts you on their level! You can tap into their knowledge, tap into their moves and tap into their gains if you just know how it is they move these markets.

I hope this article can change the way you look at the charts. Hopefully it will help you to NOT buy the highs rather, buy the following dip. We never know when one of these is going to show up due to the ''micro buy accumulation'' strategy stopping the charts showing us any sign of it coming. However in my next article I'm going to share my volume strategy that I mentioned in the introduction article.

This strategy can pinpoint entries into a dump and also a reversal back into highs after a dump. While it cannot predict the initial pump it can help you to make gains on the second wave (the huge dump off) and the third wave (the second pump). It can also be used for day trading and swing trading Equities/commodities/indices and Cryptos.

Thanks for reading!

Sam Broye.

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Coins mentioned in post:

CoinPrice (USD)📈 24h📉 7d
BTCBitcoin12752.200$8.06%-11.57%
DOGEDogecoin0.009$3.27%-34.91%
ECCECC0.003$20.98%-10.37%
UNOUnobtanium133.134$4.17%8.98%

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